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    NorthWest Central London, United Kingdom
  • Interests
    The weather (obviously!), writing, movies....snow!!! :D
  • Weather Preferences
    Cold and Snowy Winters, Hot and Sunny Summers - Never Mild!

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  1. I have to agree with this. Seeing how the GWO is in an unfavourable phase, AMM is currently low (But on the rise soon), its not surprising that we will see a unsettled period. A weak EL Nino should not interfere, though a wQBO, possibly, can. As many have saud, we'll just have to wait and see.
  2. Yeah, the first chart is from November 2015. I put the recent t240 frame from ECM 12z run underneath just for comparison reasons.
  3. We were expecting this to happen. ECM isn't as good as GFS, but then again, that run is possibly the best outcome we could get! ECM, as many have said, isn't a disaster at all and there is much to like - PV in shatters, high over UK and GIN corridor trying to retrogress upwards. I'm sure if you played the run on a few extra frames, a high would set up in GIN and we would be back in an easterly flow! Just for a little perspective, this time a few years ago we were looking down at the bottom of the barrel.... If a run like the ECM 12z came along, we all would have jumped on it, wishing it to fruition!
  4. This place has been buzzing over the past few days, hasn't it?! Ain't like the past few days the models haven't been spilling out cold runs with potential or anything! 12z UKMO t144 13/11: 12z GEM t120 13/11: 12z GFS t144 13/11: 12z GFS t240 13/11: 12z GFS t324 13/11: The PV is completely annihilated!!! OK, all ramping and joking aside, it does appear that support for a cold end to November (As many posters on here have forecasted for a while - @CreweCold and @BLAST FROM THE PAST) by the models IS in full swing! With current atmospheric and stratospheric shenanigans occurring..... , a de-coupled trop and strat (Despite a record-breaking zonal wind speed in October) and strong wave transfer in the Indian Ocean taking place (MJO transition 3-4-5-6) and talk of a Wave 2 event occurring (Potentially) further down the line at the end of the month.... Its no wonder the models are spewing out runs like this!!! BUT!!! As the previous winters have proven, nothing is set in stone, nothing is guaranteed and anything that can go wrong usually does (Especially for cold weather for the UK!!! ). Point being, latest GFS 12z run is a beaut and shows a perfect evolution of a retrograde Scandi high to full on Greenland high, which shatters the PV and sends a chunk straight down from the north straight to our little island's shores. Its gotten me HYPED! And everyone else here in the forums! We all want it to happen, but we must place our feet on the ground! It's a great run, but hasn't support from the UKMO and GEM at the moment. What's great though is that we have the potential to set-up a cold pattern down the line (I mean Arctic cold!). And even if the 12z GFS doesn't come off, at least we'll have more bites of the cherry and it will feel seasonal for the time of year. Watch the models, see what gets support, where the TRENDS our going! And the TREND this far is cold!!! ~mpkio2~
  5. mpkio2

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018

    Its brilliant to see so many posters come out of their Summer Hiberanation, gearing up during this Autumn and to the coming winter! This place is buzzing tonight!!! But who can't get excited when your a coldie and the ECM teases you with this.... All fun and games of course just for now, cause we all know how fate likes to tease us and when it looks all too good to be true, its snatched away before our very eyes! But there is much to be optimistic about this year! Let the roller-coaster that is model watching, commence!
  6. Dry sunny September followed by a mild/wet first half of October and a cool/dry second half, leading into a cool/crisp yet sunny first half of November and ending with a cold second half, with some snow in places. That would be perfect IMO.
  7. Well, here we go again! Good to see so many posters coming out of Summer hibernation. Good to see some small snow gains in Siberia. Early days, but may it keep on progressing!
  8. I probably overestimated. Looking back at the records, south-east of the country had an averaged temperature anomaly of around 25c since around 19th June.
  9. Hello all, As we all know, the UK is currently in a heatwave (July 27th). It is remarkable so far for not only its strength of the heat but the duration of the heatwave too (Since around June 19th to July 27th (Current),). The media is reporting interviews from UK meteorologists, asking why we are currently in a heatwave, with many answering that it is due to the jet stream marandering North to the UK, thus allowing hot air from a situated high-pressure system over Central Europe to divert up North towards the UK. That's all fine and dandy, but I ask "Why is the Jetstream maraundering North and why is it currently so weak?" So, what do you guys think? Why are we experiencing such a strong heatwave? As in, what weather drivers are causing it to happen in the first place? Let's get this discussion going!
  10. I have to agree. North-easterly winds at this time of year are pretty much useless (It cold is what you're after,). It will only deliver cool, cloudy, rainy days. Pretty much the week we're in now.
  11. Cool, cloudy and a little misty in Central London. Annoyingly, if we got this same setup in the middle of Jan, it would be a lot colder. Hey ho, can't really complain though. Roll on the sunshine!
  12. Hey guys. Don't usually write during the Spring/Summer on the forum, but thought I would drop in and talk a bit. After the cold end of winter (And getting fed up with therian and cool weather), hoping we'll get some lovely warm weather to brighten us all up. Next week, maybe?
  13. Hey guys! The weather must know its the 5th Anniversary of March 2013! Started snowing moderately in Central London around 8am in the morning, though nothing settled and left everything wet - was too warm. Just walked up the high street and it got even colder with the windchill very biting cold and small snow flakes falling. Looks good after 4pm overnight for our region, so keep the faith guys!
  14. I live up the road from you, Jo! I live around Mornington Crescent. It's a small world after all and all that
  15. Hello, once again guys! I ventured out to Regents Park again this morning - canal still frozen over and places had about 10inches of snow. The windchill was at l;east-15c went it picked up, maybe even -17c! Anyway, cold spell is ending in the south of England with a BANG as moderate/heavy snow falling in the capital!