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mpkio2

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    NorthWest Central London, United Kingdom
  • Interests
    The weather (obviously!), writing, movies....snow!!! :D
  • Weather Preferences
    Cold and Snowy Winters, Hot and Sunny Summers - Never Mild!

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  1. Sorry was away to report - was babysitting nephew. Anyway, has quite some heavy snow in Central London from around 12.00 - 10p flakes fell from sky! Although, rain on ground allowed nothing to settle. Big waste, but lovely to see all the same. ~mpkio2~
  2. I have to agree with you here, Danny. Usually likely places like NW Britain and NI do well in these set-ups. We get the odd snowflake and sleet here and there but noting substantial. I'm going in with low expectations and not expecting much, so if anything unusual does crop up next week, it will be a plesant surprise.
  3. Well, yesterday's evening forecast for "London", weather forecaster teased by saying next week could include something "Wintry"... At least BBC Weather are hinting that something other than rain "might" be falling in the capital next week... Link Below..... http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743
  4. Hello all once more! Hope everyone had a joyous Christmas and celebrated the New Year in style! Decided to take a break from model watching during the festive period- To those who received snow and cold between 27th - 29th December; hope you enjoyed it as much as possible! It seems another cold spell may, potentially, be heading our way (Though doubt and uncertainty prevails within model suites alike!). ECM picked up on this trend in its 12z run on New Years Days.... 12z ECM 01/01 t216: Though of course, detail is different to what models are predicting for the same time frame, it still picked up on the TREND. I have stayed lurking on the forums since yesterday when an almost outstanding set of run in favour of cold was being shown, with a Euro vs GFS battle commencing and a sublime METO update also in favour of cold. I, in most of these circumstances, withheld from jumping on with excitement, seeing how in most of these situations where HLB starts to set up shop and change the NWP pattern, kept my mouth shut and took (And still taking...!) a, somewhat more, conservative perspective with what is unfolding before me. For although as encouraging as the signs were yesterday, it was nowhere near a "done deal" at all! As the past few winter seasons should tell us, a surrounding and almost landslide support of one solution does in no way mean that the favored weather will be the reality of said result! mpkio2 said (November 19, 2017: "I haven't been really active on here because, as I stated above in my earlier posts from a week ago, I expected the models to "flip-flop" around with the upcoming pattern and descending AO - it happens every time when a pattern like this wants to set up, with inter-runs saying "mild" : aggressive: one run and "cold" :cold: the next...or even, as we#ve seen over the past few days, the models lock onto a pattern, only to latch on to a new one a few runs later!" As I stated above in my post, when the models were "flip-floping" just before the cold end to November- beginning of December cold spell, I take no one model as gospel, especially when dealing with a pattern change that encompasses many telecommunications that are occurring as we speak (Telecommunications that affect the overall weather pattern that we could receive!) As most posters have commented thus far, usually a middle ground solution between all models will, likely, come to past. In these kinds of situations, its always best to find a place in the models where all models come to an agreement (Thus to avoid any heart-ship or disappointments! ). As I kept on repeating during November...."What the TREND/THEME in the models?" Well, so far....? 12z GFS 04/01 t120: 12z ECM 04/01 t120: 12z GEM 04/01 t120: 12z UKMO 04/01 t120: Not bad agreement at all! Could even take it FI further to say t144 up to this point, seeing how all have a low-pressure system to the west of the UK too! What all models agree on this far from a THEME/TREND perspective is: High pressure in the Arctic (Around NW of Canada area), PV over Canada/GH, Low pressure coming off GH and bumping up against a high pressure situated around Scandinavia/Europe (Sceuro HP, I guess...?), Low off Alaska and set up around Russia. So the overall theme and trend is there, but of course, the detail is still different in each model. As many knowledgeable posters have pointed out (Glacier Point, Tamara and Catacol to name a few!), is that telecomuncative drivers are the reason we are seeing the output in the models, because they are occurring now. If we get into a favorable position with them (e.g. GWO Phase 4, High AMM, amplified MJO to name a few), then, "perhaps" a more amplified Scandy block will build in allowing for a more sustained cold spell. With the AO forecast to dive into the negative territory, it's no wonder the models are struggling with the approaching change in the overall NWP pattern..... Although, this forecast is all based on ensembles, and thus is only still a "forecast". So, I am in no way believing anything after 9th Janaury 2017, as all models do something vastly different after this point. Anything after is, just for fun FI! As always, I word caution and not take every single model run at face value. Sit back, analyze, discuss. But don't put all your chickens into one nest! More twist and turns still yet to come! The roller-coaster is no way near finished yet! ~mpkio2~
  5. Went for a walk when heavy sleet turned to Heavy Snow in Central London between 12 - 1! Literally stood in it, with big and small flakes blowing into my face with a negative windchill! But, due to the rain before, nothing settled. Damn you rain!!!! Tonight looks to be the coldest night of the season thus far for many with widespread ice for our region. -4 in Central London which is actually really impressive! Keep safe, everyone!
  6. After a few hours or rain/sleet, snow has started to fall in Central London.
  7. OK, this is just getting ridiculous now BBC! The forecast for my area has now changed to this.... Snow for most of the day? I'm telling you, not even the BBC know what tomorrow will bring! All to play for I say!
  8. BBC has my area down for this tomorrow... I don't have much faith in it though; I should be having "Heavy Snow" right now, yet nothing is falling from the sky! I say to expect the unexpected tomorrow for our region. More surprises might be in store...
  9. I said this yesterday evening and it looks like it was the right call! Many posters woke up to a surprise snowfall in places across our region and we've had over 20+ pages of posts in just one day! I think theres a chance that more snow will fall tomorrow for our region. Yesterday people were worrying about DP's being too high....and the majority of our region still got snow even with these 850temps.... As long our has its own cold pool and DP's are -0, then wintry PPN will fall.
  10. Went out for 4 hours and enjoyed the Winter Wonderland at my doorstep. Snow has fallen, from light to heavy with 20p snowflakes here in Central London! Took many photos. Here are a few of my favs.....
  11. Currently in Regents Park. its like a Winter Wonderland! Easily got 2-3 inches of snow in Central London!
  12. Had my alarm set for9.00am (BBC weather app said"Heavy Snow" would fall in my area at this time)... Woke up at about 7....heavy rain outside.... Wakes up at 9.....Winter Wonderland outside with heavy, big snowflakes!!!! Best snowfall Central London has had since January 2013!
  13. True that! I had a feeling those temps were too high. Thank god for the last second upgrades, eh?
  14. BBC just updated with "Heavy Snow" at 10 tomorrow morning for my area. That correlates to what the HIRLAM is showing! Hey! I can dream!
  15. Good evening all, fellow southerners! Are snow chances have upgraded a bit over the past few hours, huh? This is what BBC are forecasting for my area in Central.North West London..... A mixture of sleet/rain and to top it off, some heavy snow? Surely not! Tomorrows gonna be a LONG day and I gotta feeling a few surprises may crop up for our region. Heres to hoping....
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