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mpkio2

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    NorthWest Central London, United Kingdom
  • Interests
    The weather (obviously!), writing, movies....snow!!! :D
  • Weather Preferences
    Cold and Snowy Winters, Hot and Sunny Summers - Never Mild!

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  1. I'm not really knowledgeable in this respect, but, due to the low ice extent that we've been seeing, what this have side effects on the upcoming winter and encourage HLB in the hight latitdudes over the pole? I'm a strong believer that this happened in 2012, on our all time record breaking low ice extent, which is why we had a cold winter 2012/2013.
  2. A very good illustration to point out that slow snow growth in September does not equal a cold winter. If anything, the past Septembers where we've had great snow and ice growth in September has turned out to be mild winters here in the UK, 2015/2016 winters to name a few. October is the important month. 🙂
  3. Not a single falke here in London, but thats not surprising.
  4. Hello one and all once again!! ? WARNING: LONG-WINDED POST! Well, I've finally come out of my Summer hibernation + lurking on the forum, and perhaps start to contribute by putting in my thought on my upcoming favourite season; winter.? Anywho, it's been a little up and down in here over the past few weeks, what with the roller-coaster already sterted, rolling up and down along the track at full speed. ? If you don't know, I always look at the models knowing where we all stand with regards to FL, and what with the models not showing the type of patern we all wanted to see, a bi
  5. After a day of a mix of rain/sleet/snow, it's snowing here in Central London. Temp at 2c so nothing sticking. Pretty to watch it fall through. ?
  6. Well, I'm actually a little surprised for my area in Central London- Been snowing since 9pm, persistent and heavy at times, everything turning white!
  7. Not worth bothering worrying over model forecasts of the MJO. Not until this SSW is done and finished, I am taking everything with a lorry-full of salt! ~mpkio2~
  8. Hello All Once Again!!!! Been awhile since I posted here, huh? Hope you all had a wonderful festive period and New Years! Chilly out there today, as our UK High sits right over us making it colder, and widespread frosts tonight countrywide.... So that's it gang! The "Hunt" for cold is over! It's been found and its right at our doorstep! OK, all things serious, a lot has been going on over the past few days, with the models constantly at war with each other, bickering and disagreeing. But there's a lot going on at the moment; what with our current SSW
  9. Whatever the weather, hope you all have a very Merry Christmas! ? PS: Sorry this is off topic Mods, but I hope you can allow this festive post.
  10. I have to agree with this. Seeing how the GWO is in an unfavourable phase, AMM is currently low (But on the rise soon), its not surprising that we will see a unsettled period. A weak EL Nino should not interfere, though a wQBO, possibly, can. As many have saud, we'll just have to wait and see.
  11. Yeah, the first chart is from November 2015. I put the recent t240 frame from ECM 12z run underneath just for comparison reasons.?
  12. We were expecting this to happen. ECM isn't as good as GFS, but then again, that run is possibly the best outcome we could get! ECM, as many have said, isn't a disaster at all and there is much to like - PV in shatters, high over UK and GIN corridor trying to retrogress upwards. I'm sure if you played the run on a few extra frames, a high would set up in GIN and we would be back in an easterly flow! Just for a little perspective, this time a few years ago we were looking down at the bottom of the barrel.... If a run like the ECM 12z came along, we all would have jumpe
  13. This place has been buzzing over the past few days, hasn't it?! ? Ain't like the past few days the models haven't been spilling out cold runs with potential or anything! 12z UKMO t144 13/11: 12z GEM t120 13/11: 12z GFS t144 13/11: 12z GFS t240 13/11: 12z GFS t324 13/11: The PV is completely annihilated!!! OK, all ramping and joking aside, it does appear that support for a cold end to November (As many posters on here have forecasted for a while - @CreweCold and @BLAST FROM THE PAST) by the models IS in full swing! With current atmospheric and stratospheri
  14. Its brilliant to see so many posters come out of their Summer Hiberanation, gearing up during this Autumn and to the coming winter! This place is buzzing tonight!!! But who can't get excited when your a coldie and the ECM teases you with this.... All fun and games of course just for now, cause we all know how fate likes to tease us and when it looks all too good to be true, its snatched away before our very eyes! But there is much to be optimistic about this year! Let the roller-coaster that is model watching, commence!
  15. Dry sunny September followed by a mild/wet first half of October and a cool/dry second half, leading into a cool/crisp yet sunny first half of November and ending with a cold second half, with some snow in places. That would be perfect IMO.
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