bradymk

Its a shame that the front that's approaching to our south west and west now isn't 200-300 miles further east. It may have been slightly less cold today/tomorrow if so but we'd have likely got a good frontal snow event. Unfortunately the cold block was a little too strong at this point in the week to let the front approach with any intensity. Hope Pembrokeshire manages to catch the eastern part of it.

From glancing at the 12z's so far, there seems to be a slight trend (Icon & Arpege aside) towards Saturdays front potentially suffering from the same treatment as Thursday nights. On a lot of the models it has trended further west and is weaker than previous runs. Of course this can be good or bad for us. If it stays intact and stalls over Wales, great. If it dissipates too quickly coming into the cold air, we may get left with very little, particularly further east. Although it may still colder for slightly longer. Good to see ICON sticking with its output and the Arpege joining. All to play for Saturday still and on to the ECM. With the Thursday night snow, more confidence tonight of this being a non-event unless you're in the far south west. Time for it to upgrade slightly but not many models at all showing any widespread precipitation.

Yes each run is very different. UKV 6z had moderate to heavy precip in the south west early hours of Friday, 9z hardly any at all precip makes it even there. Its definitely one of those where we probably wont know until tomorrow Also hoping its further east too.

Good to see a warning out for Thursday for the south west and definitely the best location for snow given the models currently. UKV 6z has some good precip rates in Pembrokeshire early Friday morning. Hopefully Saturdays can change to cover a wider area if model output continues to show snow for southern and western coastal areas too.

Some decent accumulation for Thursday night for Pembrokeshire, West Carmarthenshire and some other south western coastal areas from Euro4.

No real cross agreement again from the morning runs for Thursday or Saturday. Different solutions across the board. A good number still showing snow for Saturday, particularly the ICON. The ECM has also improved. Thursday night - still a mixed back with how far north, east and heavy the precip is. GFS being the best for all of the south. Pembrokeshire looking best placed either way for some light/moderate snow. Turning milder late Saturday or Sunday then looks likely, regardless of what happens before hand. However wouldn’t be surprised still if we had some changes from the models at this timeframe. Models aside, MetO text forecast is not interested in low ground snow for Wales other than the light snow in the west Thursday night, which is probably the biggest negative of the morning but not surprised given the uncertainty I guess.

Didn’t realise there was a ECM parallel at the moment or is it new? Either way, it’s a similar run to the normal op.

Some good WAA just east of Iceland and a small area of heights building in Greenland.

Yes hopefully. We have the two main ingredients for a snow event here in this setup - Very cold air established over Wales and the Atlantic approaching. Although the trend has been for the breakdown to not be a snowy one for us in earlier runs today, we’ve always got a chance with current setup. This time tomorrow hopefully we’ll know more! No downgrades on 00z’s please and ECM to join!

Good snow event Saturday too for most on the GFS, changing to rain/sleet in south west but cold air fighting back too. Position of this very much up for grabs on Saturday. Turning milder Monday onwards.

Good snow event from GFS too early Friday morning for the south, we need these small changes/upgrade to gain momentum in the morning. Not over yet.

Yes for now. Same idea as other models but makes more of Thursday nights precip and same with Saturday with better angle of front and further south than other models. GFS tricking out now....

Would bank that ICON run. Some decent moderate snowfall Thursday night with perfect conditions for quick accumulations. Then some heavy snow Saturday and a freezing cold windy day. Highs of 0c and below. Cold day Sunday before milder air returns.

Not the best model as we all know, however first one out so always gets a look! ICON improves Thursday night/Friday morning snow for the south. Be good to see some upgrades on the others like this. Let’s see what it shows for Sat.

Yep it is trending the wrong way for a snowy breakdown (or significant snow anyway). All models then show it turning milder from Monday in Wales but I am still hopeful we could sneak out a decent snowfall over the weekend. Going to give it 24-48 hours as still thinks there are room for upgrades in the short term. Longer term looks like turning milder in Wales for a time at least, not a great set of EC Ens. Would we mind too much though if we got a good snow event Friday/Saturday? Onto the 18z's...

Yep not great unfortunately. Some light snow for the south on Thursday night, heavier in Pembrokeshire. With the ground and air like it is though, accumulation would be better than usual for light precip but still nothing significant. Saturday not great on the whole - however a change in the angle of the front and it would be much better (as per ICON) - at least we're still in the game going into tomorrows runs. Just awaiting UKV extended.

Yep, Theta E values also reinforcing the slight swing back. Good clustering keeping these below 10c until 15th Feb compared to 00z and 06z set. Would need to see this continue on upcoming GEFS runs and also the EC Ens to show a similar swing back colder. Better than where we were after the 00z runs anyway!

It has certainly been disappointing for snow so far, initially easterlies often are for Wales, but the air is definitely very cold. If the wind wasn't gusting 30-35mph, the air temps would be much lower. Dew points are -4c to -7c across Wales right now, that is very cold air and the coldest air we've had since BFTE 2018 for sure. Even though it is uncertain at the moment, hopefully we will do well for snow between Thursday and Monday. Similar to the BFTE in 2018, there was only the odd flurry in Cardiff for the 5 or so days before Storm Emma arrived. Therefore to early to call it disappointing so far I think, the cold air over us at the moment is making the ground conditions perfect for any snow that does arrive Thurs-Mon. However if we get to a breakdown Monday and we've had no snowfall, then I will be extremely miserable given the conditions we currently have. Heres to the models starting to firm up on a snow event between Thurs night and Monday

GEFS certainly an improvement up to 120 hours and probably best to leave it there for now given the potential for more changes before that timeframe.

I have a feeling its definitely not over yet! A slight flip back in our favour this afternoon with the GFS and Icon in particular. If we can keep that trend going again and get some improvements between 72 hours and 120 hours, we could definitely squeeze a good event between Friday and Monday. As for Thurs night/Friday morn, too uncertain likes others are saying above. Probably one for this time tomorrow to get a clearer picture. However at this stage, if I was in Pembrokeshire I'd be feeling more confident of seeing some "heavier" snow Thurs night than in a location such as Cardiff. However still think some light snow is possible for us all in the south at least, almost always an area of light precipitation comes in ahead of a front. However of course its different with the very cold air at the moment. The GFS (below) shows what I think could happen with heavier Precipitation in far west and then light snow ahead of the main front for the rest of the south before dissipating.

12z GFS is not the type of run we were seeing yesterday and a few days ago. However, comparing it to todays disappointing 6z and 0z runs at the same time, its definitely a trend back in the right direction. Still some movement for it to come back in our favour I think between the 72h and 120h timeframe. 12z first. Good snow event Saturday for SW, Wales and Ireland on Icon too.

Anyone under that relatively "heavy" shower in Porthcawl area? Gower area could have some decent showers in the next hour or so too. They also look to be clipping South Pembrokeshire coast. Some moisture building in channel east of Cardiff also. Light flurries just started here again.

Good example of cold remaining at the surface as the scandi high is building on GFS. Milder upper air creeps into the UK, with the 0c 850 past the SW and almost all of Wales. However the surface temps for same time. 13:00 Saturday. -3/-4c central England. Still freezing at surface in Wales and parts of south west. This would be great for people with snow cover, could hang around for a long time if the transition happens as per this run. And then the cold upper air filters back in from the east. Good to see the trend towards ECM and GEM.

Scandi high building here at +144!

GEM is the run to bank this morning! Daytime Max of 1c in Cardiff is the highest temp between tomorrow and next Monday (15th) with a ‘beast from the east’ arriving at day 9/10 to top it off. Tuesday is interesting. A split in the models but GFS, Icon and GEM all flirting with risk of snow in far south wales. Worth keeping an eye on the next few days. Before then, MetOffice text forecast for Wales mentioning rain increasingly turning to snow tonight in places. Longer term - good trends again this morning if we want the cold extended. GEM being the snowiest but ECM also staying cold, but drier.