bradymk
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Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022
bradymk replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022
bradymk replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Icon 12z similar to the GFS 6z with a more organised area of precip running across the south. Very borderline for snow but possible for some. Something to keep an eye on for the south/south west. -
Coming down nicely here but very fine flakes. Covering all surfaces now other than main roads. However can see it starting to lose intensity as it approaching us. The yellows turning to greens etc. The Vale of Glamorgan looks like the area holding best intensity while being east enough to avoid less cold air.
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At this range too, MLB’s showing at Day 10 in the Ens could easily be positioned more favourably for us nearer the time. Which as we know can vastly change surface conditions. Day 10 on GEM could be very different for example if that block was further west come t+0 Hoping the EC Ens still hold some promise longer term In the here and now, also hoping the front makes it to Cardiff tomorrow to see some snow out of this spell!
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Poorer output this evening for a quicker return to any cold. A fairly large change from UKMO too from earlier runs. GEFS showing very mild and mostly dry conditions after Day 6/7. Would be nice to at least stay dry if we can’t get the cold. Clear trend to higher temps after day 6/7 when comparing to the ENS yesterday. Marco (Met) tweeted earlier today that they are expecting it to turn colder from the east as early as perhaps next Friday. Seems a long way away from that in tonight’s output but who knows...
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ECM an upgrade on this mornings run. Front comes in early to the south west (around 5am), light at first. It then moves in for most of Wales, reaching a line of Cardiff to Denbigh around 11am. Turns heavy in the west but also more marginal around 10am-midday. Heavy Precipitation then transfers east, crossing all areas but starting to ease as it does so. Widely 1-3cm, perhaps a little more on higher ground in the mid and west. Hardly St Davids Day 2018, but still some snow to end the cold spell for most. Very cold and very dry here again this evening. Temp -1c DP -6c, perfect conditions the last few days for allowing snow to settle quickly if it does happen and its not sleet!!
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After a good 00z set, just to show that the uncertainty is still high for tomorrow, the short range models Arome, Arpege, Harmonie and ICON have all downgraded compared to 00z outputs. GFS not great too. All part of the rollercoaster as normal and I'm sure what actually happens will still be slightly different to the models anyway. UKV looks good though as per Matts post. ^
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Taken some snapshots of tomorrow from almost all the models. I would say overall an upgrade for tomorrow this morning compared to yesterday. All vary the position of precip and intensity. Really hoping something like ICON or Arome come off with a good snow event for many of us to finish the cold spell. ICON Arpege HARMONIE AROME GFS EURO4 ECM
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Probably for most areas. It has unfortunately been doing that all day so far, but this bit now has made it closer to land. You never know but very unlikely for us anyway. Hopefully Pembrokeshire can still catch the end of it later on. Hoping for some good runs for Saturday from the 12z's but I can see the trend for weaker precipitation becoming stronger.