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bradymk

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Everything posted by bradymk

  1. Morning, still looking good for snow showers North & West Wales Sunday night - Wednesday. Some showers moving into North Wales late Sunday. Then a Pembrokeshire Dangler looks likely to set up Monday, turning north westerly into Monday evening and overnight, resulting in it affecting areas further east - Ceredigion, Carmarthenshire, Swansea if the showers push through. For those of us in Mid, E, SE Wales, I think we’ll just need to see how far inland the showers do come and their intensity. Wednesdays low looks unlikely now and the models are all agreeing (for now) of a breakdown of the very cold air on Friday. It’s a shame but I think the bigger build up and the downgrades are overriding the fact that we still have a cold week to come and will have conditions conductive to low level snow. It’s disappointing overall given what it could have been but let’s see what happens. Edit - looking at the models again, the Dangler and North Wales showers are likely to also make a comeback Thursday potentially, after the milder sector moves through and the cold uppers move back south. Something to watch..
  2. Yes it’s looking mainly dry for us at the moment which is a shame. However I think showers will likely move fairly far inland on Monday Night so worth keeping an eye on that. Wednesday’s low looks likely to miss now but it may still skirt the far south of Wales. Not totally a done deal yet For me, best chances for East Wales may be Thursday Friday once the low heights and uppers return later Wednesday. However we won’t know for a few days yet.
  3. Agree. MetOffice have up to 2cm Monday for North & West Wales, 5cm higher ground. I imagine a yellow snow & ice warning will go out over the weekend for Monday for West and North Wales from the showers (if current output stays the same). Mon night into Tuesday too. I reckon that warning will almost mirror this map from today
  4. The low pressure from the south west does look unlikely now in to affect Wales (disruptively anyway). The MetO have it most likely affecting far southern England in their video with the more northern track affecting Wales less likely. Since the video earlier the model output bar GFS, has also trended it further south but time for it to change. I do understand the frustration about the models looking mainly dry for inland areas. However, it looks like a really decent dangler setting up Monday. A direct northerly at first so likely affecting Pembrokeshire / West Carmarthenshire Monday daytime. Monday morning will likely be sleet / wintry showers on low ground but the arctic air arrives for the afternoon and evening. UKV shows the showers turning to snow by around 3pm Monday. Later Monday into Tuesday it turns more North Westerly, liking changing the line of showers and bringing a streamer overnight through parts of Ceredigion, Carmarthenshire down into the Swansea area instead. The north westerly bringing frequent heavy showers for north Wales too on the UKV overnight Monday. Dangler Mon Aft - snow showers Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire Monday Night - snow showers more widespread as winds go more NW I think we’ll have more chances later in the week too, but the models are changing so much, so probably best to revisit end of the week in a few days
  5. GEFS Pert 7 has the idea that I am thinking Like I said outside chance, but this is what I am going to look for in the next few days to start appearing.
  6. An outside shot at the moment but when the ridge from the ESB moves across the Atlantic the end of next week, a stronger ridge early on and more energy going SE (usually poorly modelled) would allow it to be further north than the current GFS run. Similar theme to ICON 00z and this would give the chance of a decent wedge forming to our north around Day 8, helping deflect Atlantic energy south eastwards. If so, the wedge could then lead to a development of a Scandi High as others have said. GFS was never going to make it then, but there is a hint of this on the 6z Day 8 & Day 10 charts. In the next few days, I’d be looking in the models for a cut off wedge forming around Iceland / just to the east of Iceland approx Day 8.
  7. An even better ridge on the ESB on this 12z ICON run. It joins up with the Greenland High and stops the real cold air in the states from spilling east into the Atlantic. To compare: 00z left
  8. Agree. The ridge off the Eastern Sea Board seems to be an important part of the longevity of the cold. It gets ahead of the cold spilling out into the Atlantic from the US. It has the potential to be the wedge we need to keep deflecting lows south at Day 9/10. The ICON had the ridge even more of a feature and early on at 120 on its 6z run.
  9. It does but I think it’s a better run (up to what we can see anyway). It is slightly weaker and further west / north west, but we have less influence from the surface high, a better flow at +120 and a ridge pushing north up through the NE US coast which could be important down the line.
  10. UKV has an organised area of snow moving through Northern Ireland and into NW England late Monday. It then looks to pivot slightly and moves into N England and into Ireland during the night. Pressure is also lower on UKV at 120 than compared to both ECM and GFS. It has the 1011mb contour through the midlands at +120 whereas GFS has 1019mb. Thought UKV did well with the recent cold pool that crossed Southern areas this week so worth adding it into the mix the next few days for the initial northerly hit.
  11. Quite noteworthy imo that GFS is persisting with the increase in heights again to either our west, north / north east day 10 + Especially given it's tendency to revert to 'normal' at that stage and given that only a few days ago, it was showing a return to flat unsettled pattern at the end of GFS runs.
  12. No real change. The GFS 6z not quite getting the initial cold far enough south in the med range for the whole of the UK, but I wouldn't worry too much about that for now. The southward extent of that is going to be almost impossible for the models to nail down at this stage and it is clearly chopping and changing run by run. Plus we fortunately have the UKMO and ECM showing it further south for now. Even on this GFS run, the cold front doesn't move back further north than the Midlands from late Sunday until late Thursday. If you look at the 2m temps too, it is still a very cold week for many, particularly Midlands and further north. I also think it is encouraging that the GFS 6z is then still trying to disrupt lows passed this point, at day 9/10. Anyway, probably silly over analysing it for now, next runs...
  13. A light dusting formed on cars and roofs from the heavier shower that has just passed through in North Cardiff. Looks about the last of it but a nice few hours. Hopefully the main event still to come this winter!
  14. Nothing in Cardiff at the moment but a bit early yet for what models are showing. Encouraged by the precipitation actually intensifying in places as it moves west. Hoping the channel will help intensify too like others have said. Not expecting much but we've gone many winters in the past without a flake sometimes!
  15. The upper wind does have that slight south east element to it which may explain some of the pepping up off showers over the Bristol Channel latest from the icon 21z, again just mainly light snow or flurries like Marcus says above so no disruption expected but better than nothing if it happens!
  16. Yes true, fingers crossed as UKMO has a good area of light snow moving west including over Swansea at about 11pm
  17. Given its E / ENE rather than NE, I think southern areas of Wales won’t be too affected by that on this occasion with the direction that the precip is supposed to be moving. The Bristol Channel may actually help pep some of it up near the coast as the main area of the cold pool moves west (about 7-11pm tomorrow). A wait and see I think… ECM hasn’t been too keen anyway so far so interesting to see what that has.
  18. Still looking good to see some flurries tomorrow evening in East / SE Wales in particular. Associated with the movement west of the sub -10 850’s. Each model slightly different with some having more intensity than others but I’d say flurries will probably be more widespread than some of these charts. Let’s see
  19. Quietly confident we’ll see some snow flurries in east / SE Wales tomorrow evening. Certainly no blizzard but be nice to see something falling at least. Await the 12z runs…
  20. Almost a week ago, the models (gfs in this example) were showing this at +186h for tomorrow. Higher pressure moving northwards and building in around the UK and Ireland. A colder and drier period than recently but with the details to be ironed out. We now have this at +36. The same theme but with differences that have occurred on the way down to t+0 that make a lot of difference to our islands. High pressure still moved northwards giving the drier and colder theme that we expected and had been showing, but the differences have resulted in -12c 850’s tomorrow now across the south. Now although I accept this can work both ways, it is a reminder that we have a long way to go yet. The overall theme of heights to the NW and lower heights over the UK and to our E is still present. It’s obvious to be frustrated with some of the negative changes to the op runs the last few days, particularly after some of the runs we were having. However after being on here for 11 years, I’m sure we can all agree it is not that unusual on the lead up to a colder spell and often I have found the best upgrades to be once it comes within the +120-144 timeframe. (And of course some of the worst downgrades!). We are still on track and I imagine a long way from any clarity yet, whichever way that may be. I’m hoping for some improvements back the other way again now as the period of interest moves towards t+144 in the next few days.
  21. Nice to see the upgrades for Monday and Monday night. Hopefully ECM moves inline with the others on this. Something to watch very loosely for Tuesday / Wednesday too. The 6z has lower heights to our south for the same time on Tuesday. This is only a possibility but I do wonder whether this system could ‘spin’ northwards rather than south like currently modelled. We see it move southwards at the moment into Northern Spain but there have been the odd ENS member and also the GEM 00z op yesterday that take this pool of lower heights northwards. I feel this has happened a lot in summer months where the south ends up getting a soaking. Something to watch out for if the upgrades for early next week continue. GFS 0Z GFS 6Z Example from GEM yesterday
  22. As others have already said, it certainly seems a trend so far on the 12z for a potential quicker route to cold, following the initial easterly. This may have also been posted earlier, but I was also surprised when looking at the earlier UKV charts for Monday. It has -11 850's widely and even a few -12's. Some uncertainty still to be ironed out for the cold pool early next week and that's before we get to the (hopefully) main event. A LONG way to go yet as we all know, but not sure we can complain at this stage.
  23. Main part of the storm looks slightly later than planned initially. Looks like late morning/lunchtime may now be more of the focus. Relatively calm here in Cardiff too at the moment, but wind picking up.
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