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Everything posted by bradythemole

  1. ICON with some fairly big changes earlier in the run and then drops the LP and trough southwards into Spain by +120. Very different from its other runs today. Stronger ridging earlier on causing a linkup between the high out west and to our north east.
  2. Hope this reply to Ian means that GloSea is also seeing this.
  3. Usual caveats too with these charts but snow for quite a few too with the system on Icon.
  4. Well ECM at day 9 tonight a much better chart than the poor ones we have been seeing over the last several days.
  5. Saw this from Matt Hugo on Twitter. Although not much change at all in 850’s, there is a lot more spread for T2 temp’s from 12z GEFS for the end of this week. comparing the 12z to 00z below, they’re a lot more colder members at the surface on the 12z suite suggesting perhaps more continental influence and the high getting that bit further north. However perhaps just a rogue suite.
  6. Further to last post. Comparing day 6 on the GFS and UKMO. Stronger high to the east on UKMO. Lower heights further west in Southern Europe too - over Italy on UKMO. Hopefully suppressing a build of euro heights as large as GFS does post 144. Slightly higher heights to north and north west of UK Wonder if we could get a link up between the arctic high and high out east as this ticks closer too?
  7. Comparing UKMO 120 today to 144 yday and some definite differences for the better; More pressure from the high situated E Europe/Russia. trough deeper and further west over UK. arctic high a little bit more prominent on the 120 chart from today too.
  8. Just went over the mountain and a dusting up there and snowing. Still snowing at The travellers rest coming into Thornhill. Then sleety rain there downwards. Didn’t think the snow line would be as low as it has been so far
  9. On outskirts of Cardiff currently (around 150m tbf) but sleety rain and quite a lot of flakes in the rain too. 3c
  10. Looking at yesterdays run, it seems a degree or two too high in this area yesterday. eg) Pembrey was 27c and it had 28/29. However the standard temperature parameter only had 25c so that was too little! Standard temp parameter actually has 33/34c north london Saturday so using the "inbetween" rule. 35/36c possible Saturday in those areas.
  11. Now I might well be wrong here come Saturday however since we were introduced to Weather.us for Model data which has access to euro4, I have noticed that the parameter “corrected temperature 2m” is usually more accurate for my location, particularly for scenarios like this, than the standard Air temperature 2m parameter. If you look at Saturday with this parameter, a 37c is shown North London (chart attached). Saturday has become hotter on Euro4 each run so far. Just to see how accurate this is, in Cardiff it has 29c for today at 5pm whereas the normal standard parameter has 26c. Therefore let’s see later how it does here later and if indeed it is closer to the mark. Interestingly Metoffice have 29/30 in their video forecast for here, but 26c on their computer generated forecast on website. I don’t know what the difference is or what is taken into account in the corrected temperature, perhaps someone else may know but a link below. https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr-hd/united-kingdom/temperature-2m-corr/20190629-1500z.html
  12. Some may clip the extreme south east but will eventually start to slide away south east now.
  13. That precip to the east of Cardiff and Newport is just sitting there and has done all night. So so close to it but doesn’t want to make that final push.
  14. According to UKV last update it was but can’t see it happening looking at radar currently. Here’s hoping it will although probably time for me to go anyway ? looking forward to seeing it in daylight!
  15. Hope so! Although not sure it will. It is moving west but is just weakening as it does. Those darks blues and greens not quite making it.
  16. Ye we’re hoping for the heavier precip over the bristol area to transfer west but not sure it is going too atm. Nice little line of heavier precip beginning to form to the east of Cardiff but will it move all the way...
  17. UKV Metoffice latest update has it intensifying approaching 2am Tomorrow looking interesting now too.
  18. Going to wait up to see what happens to the precipitation to the east of us as it continues to drift west. Stopped in Cardiff atm so be great if we could get some greens over us on the radar again.
  19. Dying out here now in Cardiff. Still plenty of precip around on radar, hopefully it will start to pep up here again as it continues to drift east to west
  20. Any reports in Pembs guys? Precip has pepped up all of a sudden there with green intensity on radar starting to form!
  21. The area of green/yellow precip over Burnham on Sea and Bridgewater to watch for South east wales. Hour ago now
  22. Settled in Cathays now. snow coming down nicely. Lovely bit of yellow precip about to cross the channel heading for SE Wales. ironically after looking marginal at first, the southern correction may end up with some areas of Cardiff getting the highest totals here.
  23. ECM now - got the leading front which has been over Wales. 10pm - good area of precip over SE Wales Front is now pivoting more south than earlier expected and in earlier models runs. ECM has this for 2/3am. This was further north on earlier runs. Look how more of central southern England now in chance of widespread snowfall too. Liam Dutton tweeted about this. Stop panicking everyone! Especially SE Wales, still looks ok.
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