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bradymk

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  1. Can see an area of snow on the M4 by Bridgend well on Traffic Cams. Looks like a prolonged heavy shower dragged the temps down just enough for wet snow at low levels.
  2. Thursday snow still looking good for N Wales, NW / N England and probably parts of Ireland and The Midlands too. Clearly some IMBY with this, but could be a significant event for many, particularly if you have elevation in these areas. The cold hanging on for longer too on the GFS than it’s previous runs - @ Friday 7pm, GFS had +3c 850’s Newcastle on yday 00z, whereas -5c 850’s for the same time on todays 00z Certainly an improvement from the GFS this morning for end of the weekend / early next week too. Looking at Friday on todays 00z GFS, the low is a better shape compared to yesterdays 00z. today 00z vs Less of a bowling ball, more elongated which results in colder air in the north on Friday vs yesterday, colder air remaining over Scandi longer through the weekend and then a colder feed moving back south down through Ireland and into Wales / SW behind the low. Some persistent snow showing now on Sunday for parts of Ireland too. Sunday 850s from today 00z vs Moving into Monday, this all results in a better chart for early next week than yesterday too. Today vs Despite the clear climb down from some of those recent ECM / UKMO op runs, the GFS has certainly moved as well. More positives than yesterday morning I’d say and that’s forgetting the potential sig snow event Thurs / Fri. I imagine if those precip charts were just 100-200 miles further south it would be a complete different vibe in here, regardless of the mid term outlook. Good luck to all those further North
  3. Mcconnor8 It’s just as much about the shape of this incoming low as it is how north / south it is. Although it appeared further north early on, its a better shape than GFS 12z. The better shape will likely keep snow / cold in the Midlands & north for longer and also improve chances of any colder feed following. It’s not what we quite want on the 18z GFS, but better anyway. Could be a good (even if transient) event Thursday for central third of UK and Ireland. Current sweet spot maybe inland North Wales at the moment?
  4. Could be a good event Thursday / Friday for some in mid and North Wales. Some very heavy precipitation with the strong temperature gradient. There is still some uncertainty with the track and elevation will help with accumulations as usual. Need a few more runs I think. Latest UKV has 50cm for some elevated areas in N Wales. Likely to be transient though especially for lower areas. Not seeing anything at all southwards from a line around Builth Wells, but as to be expected. Not enough forcing from heights to the north for this low to be further south and be an all Wales event.
  5. These systems do often correct south historically. However it depends on what forcing there is on the low. When you have a wedge of higher heights to the north or some cold air in place, the models have often struggled and underestimated this and the system then corrects southwards and becomes more elongated closer to t+0. But for now, I don’t think this is one of those. Although we’ll see further changes with this low next week given its still 100+ hours, I don’t think it’s the classic keep correcting southwards as I don’t see enough forcing on the low from heights to the north (at the moment).
  6. Highest gusts so far here in the last 10-15 minutes. They seemed to be associated with the squall line that was by Swansea earlier on the radar below, but has since weakened as it moved east. Luckily nothing unusual here so far, but sounds like it’s been nasty in some areas. Red warning just issued for NE Scotland too. Much calmer here now after that went through.
  7. Strongest gusts so far in Cardiff now. Nothing too unusual for here, but size of the wind field clearly impressive. An upgrade in wind speeds on latest 21z UKV for NE Scotland, particularly right at the coasts. Perhaps explaining the red warning here.
  8. Great to see low level and even coastal snow in Pembrokeshire, a fairly rare sight. In the north a heavy shower approaching Llandudno right now, hopefully snow? Similar size shower has recently moved through Bangor area too. Shower signal has seemed to decrease slightly for tonight on recent model runs. But UKV still showing some showers moving fairly far inland in North Wales between now and midnight. Similarly with Cardigan Bay, and moving inland to Carmarthenshire with maybe some towards Swansea area. -5.5c here in Cardiff last night, fairly impressive minimum.
  9. Ye a friend text to say it was snowing there, and it was sticking. Just outside St D’s. That was at 10pm but agree radar can be deceiving sometimes. I remember New Year’s Day 2010 being very similar. Showers affecting St Davids first about lunchtime, then by late afternoon, the whole county was affected. Think it moved east then later in the evening to affect Carmarthenshire and Swansea.
  10. Snowing and lying in St Davids supposedly, if so, it would be pretty good indicator if the showers arrive for rest of the county.
  11. Agree about organisation. They look good at the moment on the radar, you can tell the airmass is more unstable than the beginning of the week. All the models seem to agree about a larger heavier blob over the county at about 8/9am, would be interesting if so. After a few hours of showers before hand. Shower locations always hit and miss mind, even down to the last minute. Wishing I was back west I’d say at the moment the showers look slightly earlier than the 1am on UKV
  12. Using UKV specifically here for the charts but pretty good agreement across the board. Latest 15z UKV still looking good for snow showers in Pembrokeshire tonight and also for North Wales. These heavy at times, main accumulations being above 150 metres (5cm here), but UKV showing 2cm to lower levels too where showers are longer lasting. Current Pembrokeshire temps: 0c Milford Haven -2c Haverfordwest -3c Whitechurch So temps certainly on side tonight with low dew points. Hard to get low lying snow in Pembrokeshire but a good chance here TONIGHT Estimated Snow depth tomorrow morning: Elsewhere snow chances: The chance of showers for areas further east in the Met Office warning area as we go into Thursday morning as the upper wind becomes more NW’ly again. Compared to Monday, we have lower pressure and heights so some of these could be further inland than the beginning of the week. One to watch. Later Thursday, heavy snow showers in North Wales again, as well a mix of sleet and snow showers for Western Wales. These further inland again so a chance other areas further east may catch one or two showers before they dissipate. TOMORROW NIGHT Not seeing anything for SE Wales but you never know, maybe one or two showers will push through later tomorrow. A heavy snow shower NW Anglesey right now
  13. 1pm temps @ North Paris at CDG - 1c South Paris at Orly - 11c Some temp gradient with the system in France
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