bradymk
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Some snow now at Tredegar, Ebbw Vale and Rhymney looking at Traffic Cameras.
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Thursday snow still looking good for N Wales, NW / N England and probably parts of Ireland and The Midlands too. Clearly some IMBY with this, but could be a significant event for many, particularly if you have elevation in these areas. The cold hanging on for longer too on the GFS than it’s previous runs - @ Friday 7pm, GFS had +3c 850’s Newcastle on yday 00z, whereas -5c 850’s for the same time on todays 00z
Certainly an improvement from the GFS this morning for end of the weekend / early next week too.Looking at Friday on todays 00z GFS, the low is a better shape compared to yesterdays 00z.
today 00z
vs
Less of a bowling ball, more elongated which results in colder air in the north on Friday vs yesterday, colder air remaining over Scandi longer through the weekend and then a colder feed moving back south down through Ireland and into Wales / SW behind the low. Some persistent snow showing now on Sunday for parts of Ireland too.
Sunday 850s from today 00z
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Moving into Monday, this all results in a better chart for early next week than yesterday too.Today
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Despite the clear climb down from some of those recent ECM / UKMO op runs, the GFS has certainly moved as well. More positives than yesterday morning I’d say and that’s forgetting the potential sig snow event Thurs / Fri. I imagine if those precip charts were just 100-200 miles further south it would be a complete different vibe in here, regardless of the mid term outlook. Good luck to all those further North
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It’s just as much about the shape of this incoming low as it is how north / south it is.
Although it appeared further north early on, its a better shape than GFS 12z. The better shape will likely keep snow / cold in the Midlands & north for longer and also improve chances of any colder feed following.
It’s not what we quite want on the 18z GFS, but better anyway.
Could be a good (even if transient) event Thursday for central third of UK and Ireland.
Current sweet spot maybe inland North Wales at the moment?
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Could be a good event Thursday / Friday for some in mid and North Wales. Some very heavy precipitation with the strong temperature gradient. There is still some uncertainty with the track and elevation will help with accumulations as usual. Need a few more runs I think. Latest UKV has 50cm for some elevated areas in N Wales. Likely to be transient though especially for lower areas.
Not seeing anything at all southwards from a line around Builth Wells, but as to be expected. Not enough forcing from heights to the north for this low to be further south and be an all Wales event.
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These systems do often correct south historically. However it depends on what forcing there is on the low.
When you have a wedge of higher heights to the north or some cold air in place, the models have often struggled and underestimated this and the system then corrects southwards and becomes more elongated closer to t+0.
But for now, I don’t think this is one of those. Although we’ll see further changes with this low next week given its still 100+ hours, I don’t think it’s the classic keep correcting southwards as I don’t see enough forcing on the low from heights to the north (at the moment).
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Highest gusts so far here in the last 10-15 minutes. They seemed to be associated with the squall line that was by Swansea earlier on the radar below, but has since weakened as it moved east.
Luckily nothing unusual here so far, but sounds like it’s been nasty in some areas. Red warning just issued for NE Scotland too.
Much calmer here now after that went through.
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Strongest gusts so far in Cardiff now. Nothing too unusual for here, but size of the wind field clearly impressive.
An upgrade in wind speeds on latest 21z UKV for NE Scotland, particularly right at the coasts. Perhaps explaining the red warning here.
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Great to see low level and even coastal snow in Pembrokeshire, a fairly rare sight.
In the north a heavy shower approaching Llandudno right now, hopefully snow? Similar size shower has recently moved through Bangor area too.
Shower signal has seemed to decrease slightly for tonight on recent model runs. But UKV still showing some showers moving fairly far inland in North Wales between now and midnight. Similarly with Cardigan Bay, and moving inland to Carmarthenshire with maybe some towards Swansea area.
-5.5c here in Cardiff last night, fairly impressive minimum.
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3 minutes ago, danthetan said:
Do you have any confirmation or going off the radar. I remember a similar situation around 2010. But there was lying snow covering all of pembrokeshire.
Ye a friend text to say it was snowing there, and it was sticking. Just outside St D’s. That was at 10pm but agree radar can be deceiving sometimes.
I remember New Year’s Day 2010 being very similar. Showers affecting St Davids first about lunchtime, then by late afternoon, the whole county was affected. Think it moved east then later in the evening to affect Carmarthenshire and Swansea.
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1 minute ago, danthetan said:
Well I know where I'd be driving to if I was home and it wouldn't be the preselis...... bloody st davids
who'd have thought it. @Penfoel you look to be next
Over a hour of snow there now in that line of showers
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1 minute ago, Gez79 said:
Temp -1 , dew point -6 in Milford haven Hoping to see a little covering
Snowing and lying in St Davids supposedly, if so, it would be pretty good indicator if the showers arrive for rest of the county.
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11 minutes ago, danthetan said:
I have to agree that's why I piped up earlier best chance for Pembrokeshire it a while for snow. I would be looking for a bit more organisation with the showers for any meaningful accumulations. Plenty cold enough this is my weather station in Haverfordwest
Agree about organisation. They look good at the moment on the radar, you can tell the airmass is more unstable than the beginning of the week.
All the models seem to agree about a larger heavier blob over the county at about 8/9am, would be interesting if so. After a few hours of showers before hand. Shower locations always hit and miss mind, even down to the last minute.
Wishing I was back west
I’d say at the moment the showers look slightly earlier than the 1am on UKV
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Using UKV specifically here for the charts but pretty good agreement across the board.
Latest 15z UKV still looking good for snow showers in Pembrokeshire tonight and also for North Wales. These heavy at times, main accumulations being above 150 metres (5cm here), but UKV showing 2cm to lower levels too where showers are longer lasting.
Current Pembrokeshire temps:
0c Milford Haven
-2c Haverfordwest
-3c Whitechurch
So temps certainly on side tonight with low dew points. Hard to get low lying snow in Pembrokeshire but a good chance here
TONIGHT
Estimated Snow depth tomorrow morning:
Elsewhere snow chances:
The chance of showers for areas further east in the Met Office warning area as we go into Thursday morning as the upper wind becomes more NW’ly again. Compared to Monday, we have lower pressure and heights so some of these could be further inland than the beginning of the week. One to watch.
Later Thursday, heavy snow showers in North Wales again, as well a mix of sleet and snow showers for Western Wales. These further inland again so a chance other areas further east may catch one or two showers before they dissipate.
TOMORROW NIGHT
Not seeing anything for SE Wales but you never know, maybe one or two showers will push through later tomorrow.
A heavy snow shower NW Anglesey right now
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1pm temps @
North Paris at CDG - 1c
South Paris at Orly - 11c
Some temp gradient with the system in France
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2 minutes ago, Harveyslugger said:
5cm for me
Yes potentially, fingers crossed! Will a depend where the heaviest showers align I imagine.
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Pembrokeshire looking best placed for snow showers tonight. A light covering by tomorrow according to UKV.
Some more showers in the north during the first part of the night which could give a dusting in places. The air looks colder than Monday and also lower heights, so hopefully it will be less marginal for lower areas later today and tomorrow.
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Looks very heavy on parts of the A55
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18z GFS luckily doesn't develop the low on Sunday quite like the 12z did. It is a shallower low on this run with snow on high ground and actually is not that far from a snowmaker for Northern England and Scotland. Light winds (north of the low), temps 0 to 3c and low heights at 1pm Sunday. Still very windy south of this.
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Some more organised precipitation forming now on North Wales coast moving SE.
Showers in Cardigan Bay starting to look a bit more interesting too
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Thought this was quite impressive for Kew Gardens, just under -4c at 7pm
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3 hours ago, marclt said:
We’ve gone from a warning of something to nothing here over most of the west now. For all the ramping of much colder conditions from Sunday, it’s become a much slower transition. The frosts fizzled out since last Thursday. Paths are drying now too.
I’d take it over a return to wet and windy though!
Ye a big shame Marc. Everything including the 850 Temps and showers have seem to downgraded closer to t+0.
MetO and most models still showing some showers moving inland tonight in the north and west on the Northwesterly, so you may see something later.
Also, more shower activity out west on Wednesday night into Thursday but given how things have panned out, we’ll see…
Severe frost on the way here tonight, -1c already in Bute Park at 6pm.
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Latest GFS still has the Dangler tomorrow, rain / sleet likely at first low levels, but likely snow later in the day, particularly away from immediate coast.
GFS showing some more disruptive snow showers / streamers into North Wales on Thursday.
Wednesdays low still staying south on latest runs but wouldn’t be surprised if there was some light snow or flurries further ahead of the front. Not what we want but…
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1 minute ago, Harveyslugger said:
Just my luck
Don’t worry, pretty sure you will see some heavy snow showers Monday in Pembs, especially with your elevation in Hermon
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1 hour ago, SnowStorm(Jamie) said:
Looks like the winds will turn to the NW/NNW for a time with cold upper air running over the Irish sea, normally in these cases showers train across parts of NW/W/SW Wales but can push further inland, the ICON model has been picking up on these the last few days ive noticed, one to keep an eye on.
The low pressure system on Wednesday looks unlikely to impact Wales now, going further south. That being said this mornings GFS does have it clipping the S/SE corner of the UK...
Latest ICON seems to decrease any shower activity Monday Tuesday frustratingly compared to previous runs. However it also brings Wednesdays low further north. Some swings still to come with that maybe.
lets see what the others show now
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Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards
in Wales / Cymru weather discussion
Posted
Can see an area of snow on the M4 by Bridgend well on Traffic Cams. Looks like a prolonged heavy shower dragged the temps down just enough for wet snow at low levels.