bradymk
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Everything posted by bradymk
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Light snow and quite wet but nice to see. FullSizeRender.mov
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Snowing in north Cardiff!
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The original front is forecast to sink southwards as it’s doing now. But as@RhysWales said earlier, the issue will be whether it has anything left on it by the time it comes through mid wales and over the beacons. I’ll be radar watching again either way Fingers crossed for this precip moving south/SE now too. @ALL ABOARD great video!
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That area of precip seems to be dropping more directly south each frame! If it does do that and holds intensity, could be a nice surprise for a line from Swansea to Newport.
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Im in Cardiff, family in Haverfordwest and I was using the airport station for the temp data http://www.pembrokeshireflyingclub.co.uk They say nothing falling out the sky at all there at the moment, the precipitation looks just a bit too much to the south.
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Hopeful of some more snow for Pembrokeshire today looking at the colder air later and dangler forming.
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That is what I am wondering too, could be intensity dependent. May well be sleet for now but we have colder air filtering in again now from the west/north west. Its 1c now in Haverfordwest which is at 10 metres in Pembrokeshire.
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Looks like the very start of a Dangler forming in the Irish Sea now too.
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Lovely in Heath park, this was better than I expected for Cardiff. Although you had to be north of the city centre by the looks. Zero in Cardiff bay for example.
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Model output discussion - into the last third of January
bradymk replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
With more of a wedge now showing for Wednesday/Thursday, could we continue to squeeze some more improvements as it comes closer? Arpege for example
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Raining with a few flakes here now, hope it doesn’t wash it all away before sunrise! for low areas like here, we really needed that front to be slower and pivot further west. Can’t complain, first snow of winter!
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All of a sudden the temperature has risen here and a good melt kicked in. Drip drip drip
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Hoping this shower clump moving onto the south east coast is destined for Cardiff! Missed all the falling snow with the front having moved in quicker so would be good to see some! The front has maintained intensity well so wherever it does stall, will be in for a great day I imagine!
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Covering here in Heath, Cardiff!! Probably 1-2cm. Guess I set my alarm to late!
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Latest ECM has it further north and much earlier too! Precip already at Swansea 2am clears most of South Wales by 6am
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Yes definitely a chance. The track still uncertain. On the day is never the same as the models as we all know!
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UKV next out - Much better snow risk for all than earlier runs. However precip is in fairly early and also clears through Wales quickly and stalls in England before pivoting. Good intensity though.
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The first of the 12z models are out!! Here we have... AROME ARPEGE ICON
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Updated MetOffice automated for Cardiff, bank!! Again wouldn’t take too much from these but happy it’s trending back in right direction after showing heavy rain/sleet earlier today.
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09z UKV model is an upgrade for all of South Wales. Heres snow depth 6z run to 9z. That also explains the upgrade in MetOffice automated forecast (believe they use UKV)
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Latest Euro4 for tomorrow. Some good snowfall and depths inland. Unfortunately another swing to rain/sleet near the coasts in the south. Plenty of time for it to change the other way. Onto the 12z’s!
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Updated MetO warning highlighting the marginal at coasts situation, still looking good for most places though!
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GFS is my only annoyance for coastal areas at the moment. I wouldn’t rate it ahead of Euro4 and UKV at this range but always best to have an agreement. It makes more of the low and it’s further north which would be good for intensity but certainly brings in more marginal conditions for southern coastal areas (IMBY Bias!) Shall await the others!
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Good forecast Jack ?? If it’s further south, hopefully area 1 could see a light covering too. North Pembrokeshire I think will do ok too.
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Cardiff isnt a great look on the MetOffice automated forecasts but as you say Jay, don’t take too much notice of these yet as they’ll change throughout today. Definitely marginal though right on the coast, as to be expected.
