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bradythemole

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    Pembrokeshire, Wales
  • Weather Preferences
    Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave

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  1. As other have said, it’s not so much what the last few charts of the 18z show for the UK, it’s more what it shows on the hemisphere view and what effect/forcing this pattern will have on the vortex. All in good time from there then hopefully.... a few gefs members also have the alaskan high at the end of their runs.
  2. Yes. However this just some transient light snow here before the milder air and DP’s unfortunately sweep north eastwards across Wales Saturday morning. Nevertheless much better than the other models this evening.
  3. DPs rising from south west as you go through Saturday. Some precip ahead of main front as discussed above which would be snow. Once main band arrives. Snow looks along a line of Derby/Nottingham north. However further east you go the further south the line comes. Eg) Peterborough when band first arrives there. Sunday - snow for much of Central UK (based on model data anyway) Sunday snow attached.
  4. ECM has some light snow for Wales, parts of West Midlands, NW England and South west England late Friday night/early Saturday. This is ahead of the main band of precip later on Saturday. DP’s still below Zero for all and Snow level right down to Sea Level.
  5. This from Ian a couple of months ago should help answer this one. Not sure which one of those was then used though for today’s.
  6. Arpege is seeing that low to our west/south west (circled) to be a much shallower feature than the main models. I believe that feature still hasn’t even developed yet. Not sure myself, but if this did occur, would this help the pattern initially with less energy against the block or not much effect?
  7. Don’t get too caught up on the day 8, 9 and 10 charts here. If we can get tonights ECM T+144 and T+168 to T+0, then I think the modelling of the Atlantic in the following frames will have changed quite a bit as it comes closer. Usually - less energy overall and more of this energy going under too. However it’s key to get that Scandi High to reality first.
  8. A bit of info from Ian F - he is saying that the GloSea model is showing a significant warming in Jan.
  9. UKMO still looking v good +144 this afternoon. Good start.
  10. One consistent theme that is currently occurring in the GFS ops (that others have also mentioned above) All are relocating the PV out of Canada towards the end of the runs. GFS 18z would be lovely too. High pressure, cold and mainly dry later on. Would make a nice change. Hopefully the 00z continue with the general theme but with a bit more amplification overall like the GFS 12z op.
  11. Icon 18z +120 chart has a shallower feature to south west = more chance of snow for some. As others have said, could be a surprise snowfall for some next week.
  12. Quite a few eye candy GEFS members appearing now at the end of the 6Z suite.
  13. Interesting Ian F said also that MetOffice seasonal model MSLP was skewed by -NAO later into Jan and Feb. GFS 6z a good position at +192. Should be better run coming up again here.
  14. bradythemole

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Arpege and Hirlam keen...
  15. bradythemole

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    I reckon a good chance to see some falling snow tomorrow morning across mid wales and south east wales. Higher up the better of course, but do think early on that even lower levels could see a wet snow mix. Possibly some sleet/wet snow in Cardiff first thing. Further you go inland much more likely of seeing some falling before it “warms” up in the afternoon.
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