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    Pembrokeshire, Wales
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    Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave

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  1. Well comparing yesterdays UKMO 120 with todays 96, Saturday may not be that unsettled in southern and central areas at all if this continued.
  2. Whatever the scenario showing up in the op runs for the weekend, it seems we end up with the same result 10 days time regardless Certainly the potential to get very hot end of next week and more widespread across the UK too. And that’s of course after the possible 35/36c heat in the south east thurs/fri.
  3. ECM Week 3 clusters looking mainly ridge dominated well into August too! (Twitter: kerry_mason)
  4. bradythemole

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    Will the trough to our west be sharper and dig further south closer to reliable?? Here it is at 168 and 192. Wouldn’t take much....
  5. bradythemole

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    GFS has the low diving south/south eastwards to the west of the UK late next week which may throw a ridge/plume ahead of it. Further west & south the better... ICON cuts off the low and the Scandi and Azores ridge start to link to our north and moving southwards. A little better all round so far this evening.
  6. Very uncomfortable here in Cardiff at the moment. Temperature rose all evening after the cloud and spots of rain early afternoon. It was only 21c at 4pm. Rose to just over 24c now at midnight with uncomfortable humidity. Back to normal service of sun and high 20’s tomorrow. Remarkable spell of weather.
  7. Almost 25c here at Cardiff at 11pm with high humidity (was 20c at 3/4pm)  which is making for quite an uncomfortable night. Extraordinary spell of weather though.

  8. Something actually happening on the satellite pic! Heavy line of showers too south west and west of Exeter! I just realised this morning from Mark McCarthy at MetO, that until 10:00BST, any rainfall this morning counts towards June’s average rainfall. Supposedly a historical quirk of climate monitoring.
  9. bradythemole

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    No breakdown anymore! (For now anyway) Arpege temps for Sunday. 33c in south. Could this be something extra special....trying not to get ahead of myself but the charts are looking wonderful again tonight.
  10. Arpege showing 31+ c Tues, wed and thurs for parts of SW Eng, W Mid and SE wales inland! A lovely 28c here in Cardiff. Humidity quite low too which is helping to make it feel a little more comfortable than some more recent spells.
  11. bradythemole

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    Ridge lasting almost the whole run on the 6z albeit a few minor intrusions. Low accumulated precip for the whole run. Taking into account too that the precip goes low res after a certain timeframe. Generally between 2-10mm for most of the south for the whole 16 days. Arpege still going for 30c/31c with SW England the hotspot early this coming week.
  12. bradythemole

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    Yes. The south west of England looking the hot spot currently. Arpege going for 30c Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday with 31c. Scorcher!
  13. bradythemole

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Potential for some places down south to see some falling snow tomorrow if the heavier precip makes it. Particularly over hills. Chance of some wet snow for a time due to evaporative cooling. Shouldn’t amount to anything on the ground mind.
  14. Low heights, slack flow. Evaporative cooling under heavy precip effect here? HIRLAM too
  15. Looking at the ECM Signifiant weather charts this evening is quite something. Snow for many late Tuesday Wednesday, Thursday and Friday next week. this is almost April, crazy!