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Froze were the Days

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Everything posted by Froze were the Days

  1. Both GFS 0z models and ecm look rather underwhelming again (yes going to use that word) - ecm has potential post day 10 (not as if we haven't been here before this winter) but that all depends if the energy close to Greenland ceases, but if you like the odd Pm flow the outputs might float your boat!
  2. Believe me a day with a max of 6c has never been accepted as a cold day in January and even more so 15 years ago - particularly if you live in the north or east when maxes average out near to 6-7 in January.
  3. Not what I heard the other day from a few on here (I think Mr Sussex included) that GFS should be banned post D10 and that's where we're currently heading on the basis of GFS/(p) being on the money...and hence no expectations from the ecm for another 10+ days going by of a so far disappointing winter but I was maybe hoping for some possible strong ridging as per 192. Maybe the mindset is being fuelled by MetO outlooks?
  4. So GFS is the model to follow (again in FI) although it was last weeks garbage, so going by that nothing worth watching on the ecm for the next 10 days and just seeing if it's reasonably similar to what the gfs is showing?
  5. Well yet again another underwhelming 12z from the ecm - no improvement from 216 to 240 with still low heights near Greenland/Iceland!
  6. Complete lack of any hard frosts (or air frosts) is the main reason for growing lawns, buds coming out etc.
  7. Why people pay so much attention to Exeter updates is beyond me...they've been relatively poor since late October. Anyway aren't you ignoring all the positive signals?
  8. True but as well all know the down welling isn't the same and trop response is more delayed but could last over several weeks or months as they possibly alluded to...so maybe hints of 2013 over again?
  9. About as clear as their 30 day outlooks...possibly colder periods increase but possible mild interludes with no idea if they'll be any similarites to end of Feb 2018 the last SSW which to be honest is fair enough.
  10. Hi Tom, so what scenario does Ian see being played out for the second half of winter?...if not a Greenland High or Scandi high in the foreseeable, a strong Atlantic ridge to Greenland would probably last a few days at most.
  11. Well a bit more in the way of 'blocking' over some recent runs and one or two slider type scenario's but that's the first decent easterly I've seen in the 1 month runs for some time...but something to keep an eye on over the next day or so.
  12. So your not showing the CFS 12z then? which just shows LP piling over the country...the above is about the only time I've seen the CFS show a decent easterly on any 1 month run over the last fortnight or so.
  13. I think your pushing the boat out there a bit, Anglia and Look East said temps at day not much below 5/6c but there was the slightest whisper of an odd wintry shower...
  14. Well you can at least take the next 7-10 days out of the equation so that takes us up to past mid-month. ec46 showing low heights over Scandi and heights towards Greenland/Iceland by week 3 (15th - 21st) and a stronger signal thereafter. We'll see come a few weeks time, might be a bit premature currently but you watch those days roll past without those signals coming to fruition.
  15. Agreed to the above...big bust from the ec46 I fancy and seasonal models.
  16. Oh to be in England in the wintertime - NOT!, another dull featureless day out there coming up to add to the numerous we've had since November.
  17. HOT OF THE PRESS: diddly squit showing on the ecm 12z in fact getting the feeling the Atlantic motor is just revving up! some of the poorest runs from this model this winter if your looking for cold. Potential Day 10 onwards 2/10
  18. The infamous trigger low?...probably not, looks like fairly normal winter synoptics, note yet another low developing to the west.
  19. Hope the 20th/21st isn't around the time we experience some 'real' cold as my dad's funeral is on the 21st!...be just my luck, wait all winter for the white stuff.
  20. SSW to deliver little with a coldish snap/spell towards end of month but CET still above normal.
  21. That's true but that's all this winter has been about to date 'potential down the line' - I'm talking about consistent charts which show either high latitude blocking or a potent Arctic outbreak (neither has happened thus far) - and I'll take your hint of sarcasm in your post in good jest and as I've been recording winter records since 1983, I don't think you should be telling me how to suck eggs!
  22. Wake me up when we actually have something noteworthy cold wise!! - not potential.
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