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Everything posted by Froze were the Days
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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018
Froze were the Days replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
At least no more huge confident posts from a certain member in the MOD thread that largely posts in encryption...for the time being -
As I have said numerous times this winter the MetO 30 dayer has been generally poor in it's outlooks since November onwards, wouldn't at all surprise me if they've called the colder weather at the end of January into February incorrect as well...time will only tell.
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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Froze were the Days replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
To a degree yes...still cold though -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Froze were the Days replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hope this is not another overreaction from you again!?! ...we'll find out in due course -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Froze were the Days replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
What time are the ec ensembles out? -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Froze were the Days replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That looks a very intense low pressure at 965mb...maybe overblown a touch? -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Froze were the Days replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Froze were the Days replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Froze were the Days replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Froze were the Days replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think you referring to that December 81 to January 82 period and DARE! -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Froze were the Days replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
No I'm not, read my post, after 240!?! - I'm commenting on the similarities between the earlier gfs 6z run (which was a wintry nirvana) at a certain part of that run up to 240 with this evening's ecm run which has a slightly less amplified pattern at a higher latitude at that time. -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Froze were the Days replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Slight similarities with the gfs 6z run after 168/192 other than somewhat of a flatter pattern to the north at 240... the cold quicker to get on this ecm 12z run though. -
SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018
Froze were the Days replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Nothing on the coasts!?!...why is that, the SST's aren't that warm now. -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Froze were the Days replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Doesn't GFS have a tendency to flip strongly from progressive Atlantic conditions to doing the complete opposite and going OTT though?...personally feel the 0z might be more on the money (just a hunch) with northern heights later transferring to a Greenland block, maybe similarish also the ecm 0z, any thoughts? -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Froze were the Days replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Very doubtful we'll see anything like that 06z run which to be honest was better than any Xmas TV to watch...even a slightly watered down version will do. -
SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018
Froze were the Days replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Oh dear got burnt again in the MOD thread to suggest the pattern at post day 10 might be a bit flat upstream (just as a hypothetical view point) and yes posts coming out saying I was 'worrying' and 'outrageous with my quotes' - but strangely it's Okay to suggest locked in cold at day 10 and similar suggestions. Pretty angry and not sure I'll post in that thread again... -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Froze were the Days replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Seriously so you can't ask a question about what could happen from a particular run onwards or even suggestion?...I've noticed many a poster on here over the years suggest what could happen after runs at particular stages and I've been a member of this community since 2005... just look at yesterday's ecm 12z for example when one or two posters said 'locked in cold' (Isn't that as 'outrageous')!?! -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Froze were the Days replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Who said I was worrying?...hypothetically talking here if we did get anywhere near that synoptic what would happen thereafter - would that undercut, I know a slight negative tilt to the high which would help but that would be a slow affair (and a dumping for somebody to the north west/Scotland maybe). Anyway I wonder how long these difference between the 0z and 12 runs will continue? -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Froze were the Days replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not sure what to make of that upstream after 240 - a bit flat -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Froze were the Days replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Froze were the Days replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Froze were the Days replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018
Froze were the Days replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
It's all positive and upbeat again in the MOD thread due to a U-turn by the GFS and a better UKMO run, now for the ECM to ruin everything and Prozac time again. -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Froze were the Days replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
exactly!! - my bet says no with this models consistency, looks like it's following ecm but a day late - the waxes and wanes continue. -
Strikes me as a slight upgrade in the wording from yesterday...but they seem to be waxing and waning a little but one things for sure the window is slowly closing if we get through the next week without any consistency in the models. GAME ON!!!