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Froze were the Days

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Everything posted by Froze were the Days

  1. No I'm not, read my post, after 240!?! - I'm commenting on the similarities between the earlier gfs 6z run (which was a wintry nirvana) at a certain part of that run up to 240 with this evening's ecm run which has a slightly less amplified pattern at a higher latitude at that time.
  2. Slight similarities with the gfs 6z run after 168/192 other than somewhat of a flatter pattern to the north at 240... the cold quicker to get on this ecm 12z run though.
  3. Nothing on the coasts!?!...why is that, the SST's aren't that warm now.
  4. Doesn't GFS have a tendency to flip strongly from progressive Atlantic conditions to doing the complete opposite and going OTT though?...personally feel the 0z might be more on the money (just a hunch) with northern heights later transferring to a Greenland block, maybe similarish also the ecm 0z, any thoughts?
  5. Very doubtful we'll see anything like that 06z run which to be honest was better than any Xmas TV to watch...even a slightly watered down version will do.
  6. Oh dear got burnt again in the MOD thread to suggest the pattern at post day 10 might be a bit flat upstream (just as a hypothetical view point) and yes posts coming out saying I was 'worrying' and 'outrageous with my quotes' - but strangely it's Okay to suggest locked in cold at day 10 and similar suggestions. Pretty angry and not sure I'll post in that thread again...
  7. Seriously so you can't ask a question about what could happen from a particular run onwards or even suggestion?...I've noticed many a poster on here over the years suggest what could happen after runs at particular stages and I've been a member of this community since 2005... just look at yesterday's ecm 12z for example when one or two posters said 'locked in cold' (Isn't that as 'outrageous')!?!
  8. Who said I was worrying?...hypothetically talking here if we did get anywhere near that synoptic what would happen thereafter - would that undercut, I know a slight negative tilt to the high which would help but that would be a slow affair (and a dumping for somebody to the north west/Scotland maybe). Anyway I wonder how long these difference between the 0z and 12 runs will continue?
  9. It's all positive and upbeat again in the MOD thread due to a U-turn by the GFS and a better UKMO run, now for the ECM to ruin everything and Prozac time again.
  10. exactly!! - my bet says no with this models consistency, looks like it's following ecm but a day late - the waxes and wanes continue.
  11. Strikes me as a slight upgrade in the wording from yesterday...but they seem to be waxing and waning a little but one things for sure the window is slowly closing if we get through the next week without any consistency in the models. GAME ON!!!
  12. Sadly that doesn't mean much...before this winter 'kicked off' we had many background decent signals - solar minimum, global models showing positive signs for cold weather in this part of the world and then a SSW showing up in December and to date this winter has been forgettable. Saying this I'd be very surprised if the rest of the winter was as bad as the first half but doesn't mean we'll get a decent snow event.
  13. I thought with so many new posts (without going into the thread) every minute the ramping had moved up a notch from last night...how wrong I was! shows you how desperate many are to see something decent this winter, as so far it's been a write off. Notice another bright and sunny day out there
  14. With so many posts every minute (without viewing this thread) I thought the ramping had moved up a notch, how wrong I was!...seems to be a theme when we do get an upgrading on the models in the evening (particularly ecm) the next morning we get downgrades this winter...still interesting model watching but it seems to have been generally like this since November with diddly squat to show, yes somewhat colder weather on the way but not to noteworthy for the foreseeable.
  15. Doesn't mean anything at that range (192 onwards)...as a senior poster just mentioned the ecm is the opposite to the gfs and tends to go 'overboard' with blocking and easterlies at a certain range but then went onto say that with the SSW signal a possibility of a greater chance of a similar type scenario occurring and a northerly blocked snow event before the month is out.
  16. Reading into it feels like a 'watering down' of any cold to be honest...for a continuation the MetO 30 dayer was wording cold conditions with frost, fog and snow (certainly in the north) and as we've got nearer to that period (last 10 days of January) it looks like it is veering away from it to a degree. Doesn't surprise me as the MetO 30 dayer has been poor this late Autumn/Winter with regards to forecasting cold or other weather, so who knows we might see an upgrade again in the coming day or week or so but I have little faith in these 30 dayers. So don't get hung up on them!
  17. Wasn't he married to Joan Collins back in the 60's? or have I got the wrong one
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