[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

7 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

I just told Mum to expect a lot of snow. . . And you know what that means! 

As long as it's not BFTP (Fred saying it)...hang on, God dam it!.

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

34 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Week  beginning15th 

 

That's 8th-15th...following weeks blocking anomalies as posted are far weaker, so difficult what to make of those (weak high pressure/weak low pressure)?

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC 46 is just Northern Blocking basically , for 3 to4 weeks..

Incredible.

One thing is showing it and another actually getting it, saying that just seen the weeklies and after approx 15th it's a bit of a dogs dinner, weak blocking if you can call it so difficult to know what make of those anomalies (could just been very weak low pressure to the north/weak high pressure)...I'll be very surprised if EC has that correct (maybe a watered down version) which doesn't effect the UK at times. I'm quite happy to eat a huge slice of humble pie otherwise.

Have to say also the D10 on the latest EC run looks quite underwhelming with the main cold to the north of the UK and basically a dry run for the majority or are we expecting the cold to evolve thereafter? 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Will that lobe of low pressure over Scandinavia move/be forced south?...a lot of the 'real' cold is still to the north or is the patter still evolving as this is the 14th...

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

Well drier weather is on the way so thank God!...as for the models and 'possible' cold spell mid-month I'm seeing the same ol' delaying from the models and EC det certainly isn't playing ball re: Greenland High, GFS dets now looking muddly up to D10 but still throwing out FI eye candy runs (we've been here a number of times) - new year but some things never change!

Keeping open minded but far too early to get excited...

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

7 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Would like to think we will be under -8/10 uppers..what's your guess?

I wouldn't like to guess as I'm not sure what D11 would look like but with a long sea track probably -8/10 Scotland -4 Southern England...all conjecture of course.

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

Yea..snow showers packing in behind...

On the Norwegian coast...evolution is further north, be interesting to see what D11 would be like?

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

8 minutes ago, booferking said:

The link up is perfection doesn't get any better than that really.

Slower evolution by a day than than the GFS but not miles away...on the GFS 12z at D10 the -5 thermo line is through almost all the UK, now just need to get to this point (not asking for much)

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Booooooom get in, great day 10 coming . Historic winter coming home  

That's if the UK high doesn't stay put or a SW doesn't pop up (which has happened before)...much to be decided yet.

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Looking very different at 216z compared to the GFS 12z which showed a very clean evolution (which personally I'm not sure is right)...

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

There's always at least 1 GFS det run that goes off on one in such scenarios...and here it is! does the GFS out perform ECM on GH's? EC is showing some retrogression to Greenland at D9/10 but certainly looks more west based...good eye candy but that's about it, we've been here before.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

30 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

It is looking terrible and amazing for cold in the mod thread

Getting a feeling of 2018/19 winter when there was a lot of optimism backed up by BBC and MetO outlooks and in the end we had a few chilly days with some frosts at the end of January...some of the posts in there are way way over the top...makes me wonder if a few in the MAD thread are a bit dislodged up top.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Some are setting themselves up for a HUGE fall if this cold spell doesn't come off in the MAD thread...reading through a few posts - 'northern blocking galore' 'ensembles are amazing' etc. etc. and we're talking near 10 days away from the majority of charts being shown for anything significant, still to pin point where HP settles at the weekend.

I'm getting some giant Pat Jennings size gloves to catch the toys so I can pass them onto my grandkids next Xmas

 

 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Also in the MAD thread....in a few days high pressure priming the ground with frosts for later snow that will settle (at 306hrs) - chortle! where do these posters come from?

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Happy New Year all and lets hope for some white stuff in the next few weeks...top song Tom, well chosen!

U2 - New Years Day video - Central Sweden (Salen) December 1982.

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

58 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

Don't worry, peeps --- Day Ten is still looking great! 

 

Even that on the latest EC det isn't...get set for another kind of tedium - that of anti-cyclonic boredom (probably of the cloudy kind).

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

Well looks like a pattern change on the way...after maybe a brief colder easterly in the south east a period of high pressure lumped over the UK, and we've been here before - this could last for 10 days or so! could add to further tedium to this already boring Winter. Only crumb of comfort is becoming drier.

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

2 minutes ago, stewfox said:

Just read through 7 pages on the Model Output thread covering the last 6hrs !

The charts are good,bad  indifferent . Winters over ,cold delayed 

So much conflicting drama, one liners and and different takes on the same model. Enough to give you a headache. 

I love it

 

In an ever changing world you can guarantee the MAD thread will be the same...if you don't want to be confused simply keep away from there!

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

How typical that the last day of the year here experiences some heavy rainfall...sun out now but for how long?

Happy New Year everybody and lets how for something a bit better meteorological wise than 2023 (it wouldn't be difficult).

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

Don't think I can remember such a consistently mild, cloudy and boring Xmas period as this...January really needs to give us something different, even some more frequent sunny days even if not cold wouldn't go a miss.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Fancy that a delay from the 0z so back to D10 interest...

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

And about bloody time we bucked the trend of terrible mild January's

Couldn't agree more!...January's since 2013 have been awful so you'd think it's about time for a change particularly after this rotten month, doesn't mean will see something different but by the law of averages.

I'm very pessimistic (and realistic) when it comes to snow and cold in this country but I get a feeling we might experience colder conditions and at very least some frost and fog and hopefully a decent easterly/nor' easterly from a genuinely cold source on top! Fingers crossed...in hope rather expectation.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

20 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Check out the cold wedge that develops to our north and east from start to finish on GFS 12Z, something is brewing!

Really? been there on and off since November...all we experience is flipping low pressure!

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

26 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

now we just need to correct set up

And there lies the problem - easterlies becoming less and less common, warmer sst's aiding short waves becoming of note of recent years.

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

14.5c outside!!...this month  in general seems to have got milder as it goes on, either way it won't be remembered for anything but gloom, rain with a bit of wind!