Froze were the Days

Simply don't follow the GFS with it's 4 runs a day (one which we all know is more than a giggle) and hence 'less' let downs. I haven't even noticed a northerly on the ECM which I have only been following since the Spring.

To quote a Supertramp song 'It's raining again'...why shouldn't I be surprised.

White Christmas?...almost laughable now, it's been so long since a proper white Xmas anywhere, more chance of a BBQ one.

If only we could bin it like garbage!...even though the rainfall radar shows no rain here in these parts currently outside the skies are just leaden, some brief sunshine yesterday afternoon but the last 72+ hours have been shocking. I think in my area it has has been one of the 'drier' areas in the region this month but have still totalled near 40mm.

Agree...but not so quickly, its gone from dry to wet within a week or so. Vitamin D will be on the shopping list next week.

Utterly foul day here and it continues!...dull during the day, rain on and off and quite windy for a spell. Raining tonight...grim!

Be interesting to see how accurate GloSea5 and other world models were for the period of May/June/July this year and if they picked up on the very -NAO for that period a couple of months out?...maybe that is more of a gauge how models have are performing of more recent times.

It was winter 08/09 the models/MetO got it wrong, I remember as it was the only winter I haven't recorded since 1983 (yes due to illness and other factors)...at that stage I was really starting to lose faith as a few winters before this Philip Eden kept mentioning a cold winter was overdue and then we had that run of colder ones. Weather can make fools of us all.

and it's been going on yonks! with only the odd brief pattern change...

I think we might have become accustomed to some drier and sunny October's of recent years certainly in this neck of the woods, I remember going round in a t-shirt for the first 2 weeks or so last October and then we had those 2 very mild/warm Halloweens in 2015/16 (I think), so yes a bit more Autumnal.

Saw that the other day - only a passing shot of very cold air and don't forget the city of Denver is at a high altitude (near a mile up) but that is what can happen when you're in the heart of a large continent.

All pretty boring stuff watching the ECM output at the moment, high pressure to the south low pressure to the north or north west and that's about it...

Can understand the case put forward if we have our 'typical' winter that we have experienced of recent years which has no doubt been exacerbated by warmer sst's and other factors producing less sunshine/mild/rain/less frosts etc. but to me the variation of possibilities on the table is greater in the winter season than any other season we just need things to work in our favour again which hasn't largely happened since 2013. Sadly for me the expectation and anticipation always exceeds what we experience a good 8 times out of 10.

Lets be honest only 2 of those -NAO months have impacted on this country, May and particularly June. July, August and September have not (this largely due to higher pressure over Greenland and that is it)...to me it has felt that depressions in the Atlantic have been more 'active' since July and more active than recent summers. So far this Autumn I'd say the same with the pattern not changing that much with abundant high pressure over Europe with all the action in the Atlantic, all this talk about -NAO it certainly had me fooled since July that's for sure!...if I hadn't seen the thumbnails.

Escaped the worst of it down here 12.5 mm so far...feels quite autumnal now as opposed to a week ago.

Sadly James Madden is at it again - The Mirror over the last day, still referring to him as an 'expert'... “There is a strong chance of widespread frosts and the chance of snowfall which will set the scene for November. “This will pave the way for what is shaping up to be a colder than average winter with some extreme cold weather events. “While these could start to make an impact within the next few weeks they will be particularly troublesome from December onwards. “Snow events have been few and far between in recent years, but this winter is looking favourable to bring snow event after snow event as weather systems from the Atlantic clash with cold stagnated air over the UK. That's 2019/20 over then...

Sorry off topic here...enjoy, great part of the country but by God they half charge up there, Cafe's etc. (and it is out of season). Stayed at Windermere but visited Keswick also on one of the rainy days (went to the pencil museum) :) A couple of ground frosts once the rain cleared - something I haven't experienced for years during October (well not down here).

Had a short holiday to the Lake District the last few days and had 1 clear sunny day but the others were like biblical deluges...so that's where all our rain has gone! Lake Windermere looking north to Ambleside with Helvellyn in the back ground.

Almost impossible to get through a calendar month with at least one warm Tm or Continental tropical spell which more than off-sets what cooler Pm daytime or Nightime air (as per this month) we experience...it seems to me!

wow! 5 minutes of really heavy rain just gone through, the rain was so heavy the visibility went right down, 6mm of rain in 10 minutes!

No lightning here but a pretty 'aggressive' blustery shower coming through at the moment, got our carnival this weekend and can't remember such conditions over recent years (usually has been fairly warm and settled) - wonder if some of the taller rides at the accompanying fun fair will be open if these winds keep up! (Not that I'll be on them at my age).

21.0c on the nose reached today...wake me up when we get some autumnal temperatures, might be next week (briefly).

Yes the magic 20c threshold was breached once again!...20.4c max today, a good barometer to measure in 'neutral' conditions just how much warmer it is now compared to lets say 20 years ago - neither really in Tm or Pm air mass currently.

Deepest snow cover we've had here on the Essex coast since Feb 1991...little wind but the snow fell for sometime on a stalling occluded front trying to make it's way eastwards against that huge Siberian High, I have to say that's the most on tenterhooks I've been whilst on this site whilst watching the models it really was a case of will the Atlantic front makes its way east or remain static over the east of England keeping the cold/very cold air, 'will it won't it' model watching episode went on for a few days - 6" of snow here and the first 10 days or so saw the average mean below zero and so I thought the first very cold February in yonks was on it's way, wrong! the 2nd half of the month became very mild and Feb 2012 turned out near average in an otherwise quite mild winter.

A warm October and November it is then!