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Everything posted by Froze were the Days
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'November Ice to bear a duck nothing after but sludge and muck' - I think the saying goes, have to admit haven't seen much of any Ice down here in the last couple of weeks and a few years since I've seen a ponds iced over in November but I know what you mean. With the last 2 months looking like they could be below the CET series (which is relatively rare of recent years) it does make you wonder if it might be all a bit too soon before this winter and 'normality' returns but on the other hand with the low solar input and -NAO continuing maybe a run into some uncharted territory since the winters of 2009-2013. Only time will tell.
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I haven't even ventured into the Mod thread so far this season after 'mild gate' (late last January) when I dared to mention a few times that the ecm model at days 9/10 were trending to bring in mild conditions on a few runs and as 99% in there were looking for increasing cold on the back of the BBC/MetO and was it the European or Glosea monthly updates?...I was vilified by a few regular posters and one's I never heard of (whom I won't mention) even to type mild at the time and at that timescale. Needless to say in true Alan Partridge style I wasn't wrong and 'had the last laugh' and yes be careful what you say in that thread if you dare to post just make sure it's what the majority want to hear.
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ECM for the next week or so looks terrible!!...continuous low pressure being disrupted south eastwards over the country with heights to the north (though we never experience much of the cold air) and getting stuck, all I can say is make the best of any sunshine as there looks like many rainy days ahead (as if we haven't had many in the last month).
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A dry window this morning and with the wind my lawn was finally dry so got that cut...and here comes the rain again (falling on my head like a new emotion) Sadly ecm going for now a short cooler dry period next week as opposed to what it was running for the last couple of days and with low pressure once again in charge come the start of the new month (why shouldn't we be surprised).
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Model Output Discussion - early October
Froze were the Days replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well the projected cooler and drier spell next week looks like it is getting shorter lived by the run on the ecm...low pressure dominant near the country come the start of November, why shouldn't we be surprised? -
Model Output Discussion - early October
Froze were the Days replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Nobody has mentioned the ECM, I wonder why?...I have not followed the GFS since spring and will continue not to during this Autumn and Winter (for my own blood pressure reasons). ECM showing a massive difference from a warm 'blocky' Europe to much colder conditions to the north and north east and not surprisingly all the cold air missing the UK in the latter stages of the run. -
I can only remember the 'odd' October with a frost towards the end of the month in the last decade, they are certainly becoming a rare thing. Novembers back in the 80's and even 90's had air frosts (not just ground/grass frosts)...I use to practice golf down the local driving range in the late 80's after the season had drawn to a close and quite often in the evening being wrapped up well with a frost developing on the grass whilst hitting balls, don't see that now in these parts (certainly not in the evening).