Froze were the Days

Last time we had a sub -1c winter month going by the 1961-90 series was December 2010...sort of says it all, cold winters never mind cold winter months are on the decrease and so much was vaunted about this solar minima...

Yep! some parts of southern central England (the mystical area which largely misses out in cold weather) got lucky late last January from basically a rather underwhelming month and conditions being just the right side of marginal on an occlusion to bring a reasonable amount of wet snow (nice pics by the way). A lot of the country had nothing.

You're crystal ball has come into focus then looking nearly 3 weeks ahead?...treat even that with a huge spade of salt (and yes there must be tons of the stuff stock piled to treat the roads/pavements after numerous mild winters of recent times). But other than that agree with your post.

Prozac already being dished around in the MOD thread and it's only the 4th day of winter...chuckle!

Always amazes me what people think is a 'cold' day as we enter winter...had a max of 7c here this afternoon which is roughly 1 degree below normal for the time of year in the south east, and yes still the lady presenter on Look East banging on about how chilly it is...yawn. One good thing, lots of sun the last couple of days, I'll take that for the next 3 months if we can't get any true cold or snow.

Following the GFS isn't good for the nerves with 4 runs a day with usually big variations between some runs (usually the 0z and 18z) and no doubt some bringing eye opening runs usually after day 7 and into FI if cold and snow is what your after, but if this is your thing getting your hopes up and then usually being dashed keep watching. I'm being a lot lower key this winter with the background signals (other than low solar input) and global models forecasting a +NAO and in general keeping out of the MOD thread, Since summer all I've been following is the ECM and been wondering what the commotion has been about the last few days but even this model has been sniffing at something more blocky and colder at day 8 onwards (but gone off it this morning on the 0z). There lies the problem it is at that elusive range which even with the ECM I have learnt is a long long way away in meteorological terms and believe me just following the euro model has more often than not 'wobbled' at that range if something out of the ordinary is what you're after. Maybe just follow one model, I advise UKMO or ECM and up to the more reliable time range of 7 days...we have just too much choice and long range to gaze at in hope in the internet era.

You work for the Daily Express?...

Jury well and truly out on Gavs winter weather vids regarding analogue techniques (pattern matching) to forecast the winter ahead, I'm not sure it applies to the degree it would 20+ years ago with larger factors now being involved.

5.1c for me please...

So Ian Brown was 9/10 years premature with his large teapot theory?...

Utterly ridiculous - BBC at lunch were predicting near 4c in the north and 6/7c in the south at the weekend and don't forget winter starts on Sunday...I've got winter records going back to 1983 which matches those at the start of the season quite a few times and colder so how can that be severe?, what a snowflake nation we've become! Interesting so what would that have made late November early December 2010 then?...catastrophically cold maybe. chuckle!

Almost guaranteed for temps to be somewhere between 6c - 13c by day and without a doubt green, whether it's raining or partly sunny is another thing. Small chance of a frost hanging around in the morning making it a paler shade of green. That's what my crystal balls says

I think the last couple of days has epitomised our changing climate...for a majority of this month we have experienced suppressed temperatures largely by day but nothing untoward but as soon as any atlantic air mass or air originating from further south shows up the temperatures eclipse what we have been experiencing on the flip side, night time temperatures the last couple of nights haven't even got into single figures here, 10.5c and 10.2c respectively. Unbelievably the sun has just come out...

If memory serves me correctly - yes! back in late January/February 2013 for that very cold March that followed...other than that no.

Yes agree...but in this part of the world not that much colder than average I would imagine, but feels like it due to recent Novembers being mild!

That's what happens if you follow the GFS run by run like they ALL do in that thread and no doubt it brings some good cold stuff at times but if you haven't been looking at that model you'll wonder what all the commotion has been about. I've just been looking at the ecm and nothing else, maybe a chance of some 'wintryness' at the weekend and then a northerly toppler...I actually like the less stress free way of following 1 model. Didn't TEITS say last winter (though he posts far less now) that he saves himself the bother of getting wound up by not bothering to look beyond day 6/7 and rarely looks at 06z/18z runs (something like that).

Makes the snow appear a lot deeper!

Do yourself another favour and don't even bother looking at the GFS...seems like 9 out of 10 times all the 'madness' comes from that model. All I've been doing is following the ECM and wondering what the commotion is about.

11.6c max here today, the first double digit day since the 7th, but pretty murky and damp (everything everybody hates about Novembers).

You've forgotten 2009 Tom, snow before Xmas and after...and that is a rarity in itself only equalled by 1981 in my lifetime. 2017 was another example but on a far lesser scale which didn't last long...

I remember that well, we had tall trees around our house (Firs and Spruces) and honestly thought one would come down on the house or nearby, it was scary stuff. I was 8 at the time and by far the strongest winds I'd experienced, I think the strongest winds were originally from the west and then more of a northerly direction.

Yes you're right! - January up to mid-February looked dreadful, maybe I was thinking of 88-98 being the mild dry euro high dominated winter.

Why?...December 87 and winter 87/88 was mild and fairly dry if memory serves me correctly.

At least on the latest ecm run the jet seems on a more southerly path but we've seen trough disruption this month largely south eastwards over the country or near by but it seems a tall order to actually get into a 'real' cold air mass i.e. cold heights well to the north.

OMD - Maid of Orleans (Joan of Arc)...December 1981, filmed in North Yorkshire...if this doesn't remind you of that cold snowy period I don't know what will....when musicians were talented, enjoy!