Froze were the Days

The last couple of ECM runs for next week is making less of a ridge of high pressure around the Xmas period and more mobile stuff by the 27th though as you say in this part of the world looks drier but milder...not sure about frosty either!

Hum dinging it down again, mild here today as well with a max of 12.3c. Latest ECM shows a brief 'cooler' drier blip at Xmas and then back to more mobile mild stuff at day 9/10 - oh joy!

Ties in with some of the forecasts for Europe this winter with Europe seeing even higher temp anomalies than that of the UK, low pressure dominant in central North Atlantic or nearer to the UK and High pressure over Russia and those southerlies...

It makes no sense for people in the media to say this in these times of global warming yet the Beeb and particularly that ITV lady with the drastic arm manoeuvres annoyingly stick to this mentality, we should be embracing colder conditions. Largely with mild comes cloud and rain barring a few exceptions.

Can't really disagree with too much you have said but you've forgotten to mention the previous year (2018) when by this country's standards were close to a drought arguably from April 2018 through to October and even the winter was somewhat drier than normal and in turn particularly potato crops and secondary growths were affected as well as a delayed harvest but in general as you mention we do overcome it due to our proximity. Maybe last year had something to do with peoples paranoia about increasing droughts this summer though it was on a much smaller scale? Global warming is predicted to bring increasing summer dryness and heat and wetter winters which in all probability will affect harvest and crops on a more regular basis, something our farmers will have to get accustomed to and ourselves on this website. By the way wouldn't have even replied to your original comment if it hadn't been for your 'let this be a lesson' comment which had more than a smack of arrogance about it...;)

But will we have a wet period over 3 months or so like this next Autumn/early Winter?...bets are we will again have a drier than average Summer particularly where we live unless we get some convective stuff and torrential rainfall over a small amount of days as I don't see it coming from frontal stuff.

You sound just like the fella on the moans thread that I've replied to...a tad over exaggerated as well. Summer 2019 was drier than normal across southern and south eastern parts even with the wet June and particularly dry through late July and August in the south east and East Anglia. I don't think we've had a wet Autumnal period including December like this for some time, correct me if I'm wrong (though November was near normal).

Just read 'dam fine mean at 16 days out'...my God! don't they learn?

September/October you've hit the wet spot in Southern England so some pretty localised stuff going by the MetO maps...but November appears drier?

Nearly 40mm of rain here in the last 6 days and it's still falling...and a number of those not a glimpse of the sun, real depressing stuff.

You sound like a school headmaster...after all you are the authority on all things weather and fine to say in hindsight and 'one dry week in July'? tell that to a number of farmers in the south east and East Anglia from late July through August when it was particularly dry. October was generally wetter than normal in the south/south east, November was near normal in the south/south east and so far December wetter. What seems to have made the last 2 1/2 months worse were the suppressed temps of October and November coupled with wet/damp conditions and the increasingly dull days of the last few weeks with consistent rainfall small or large on top of that, approx 40mm over the last 6 days here. Predictions of global warming of wetter winters and drier summers is expected and to a degree have been experienced over recent years this Autumn has differed through October being cooler and wetter than previous sunnier and drier ones which has exacerbated the last 2 and a half month period being poor (in the south) and no doubt elsewhere. Agree with your winter fatigue point though, it really is depressing. P.S. don't forget to say I'm a troll

Another vile day...been raining (mainly light) since 8 pm last night, when will this nightmare end?

Finally got snow...watching the NFL live game between Kansas City and Denver Broncos and it's hammering down and -3c. If you can't get it on your doorstep then get it on live TV ...Oh to live on a continent and away from the bloody Atlantic. By the way if we had those conditions here do you think we'd be playing football or Rugby in it? not a chance...in the States they get on with things no matter what and to hell with health and safety.

Really depressing stuff, wherever you look there's cyclogenesis in the Atlantic - tip of Greenland or more mobile from off the East Coast of the States or as in the latest latter stages of this ECM run somewhat further south nearer the Azores. Also lost count the times I've seen an ECM run which could produce a northerly of sorts but a smaller feature develops to the north west as per 168z...

To summarise a mildish winter (Jan/Feb) with a possible cold spell/snap at some time probably later, milder than average Spring with little in the way of convectivity and drier. Very warm summer in the south interrupted by the odd thunderstorm and then back to a fairly warm sunny September/October (with no fog). November again mild and fairly wet, December quite mild with the obvious green Xmas.

Really interesting!?!...rain, wind? unless we're getting gales or stronger in my opinion it's not interesting. You seem to advice us every other day that the radar is saying this that or the other...wake me up when something actually happens! (sorry turning into a meteorological Victor Meldrew but that's what our winters do to us).

Hammering it down....when is this bilge weather going to end?

It's 'hinged' in the run up to Xmas...apparently

Wow! if we're getting excited about this it's going to be a long long winter...just a bit of rain with some wind.

Not sure, probably in town as I live just outside Burnham, but yes no doubt this is due to a warming North Sea. Coldest night time temp so far recorded 0.2c and I have a British Standard Max/Min thermometer in a Stevenson screen so should be reasonably accurate.

You folks are rubbing it in ...one thing I've noticed over recent years as I live nearer to the North Sea, really need to be in some cold air to get an air frost in November or early December something which was easily achievable 20+ years ago.

Yes in a temporary ridge of Pm air, looks too windy on upcoming nights to have a chance of frost but who knows. 2.5c here and still waiting for the first air frost this autumn/winter.

I think regards to the ensembles / GFS runs and maybe more 'balanced' in the longer term to what we might experience or at the precipice of an ice age, who knows? I haven't been looking at them...I've just been following the ecmwf and nothing else which I feel simplifies things with less drama and in turn less hope casting and always bearing in mind anything over 7 days is always open to change unless we have the roaring Atlantic in play.

Really?...as we know 8+ days ahead is far enough without having any confidence but when that ol' Atlantic rolls in and the ecm the last day is picking up a 'whiff' of heights building on the continent at the end of the runs. In general that means more often than not mild conditions although as last Xmas period proved if we can get just a hint of some continental air in the mix temps will be nearer normal...but 'hinged'? a tad over dramatic there.

I wonder where BFTP (Fred) is?...didn't he call for a coldish December but currently looks like another bad call from him and lets be honest there's been a lot. It doesn't look like mild all the way with some Pm incursions and there might be some wintryness on the odd day at altitude looking at the latest ecm but nothing untoward. Today not in a mild air mass where I am but thermometer still showing 10.5c here in the south east so on that basis will certainly be milder than average over the next week in the south east.