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Froze were the Days

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Everything posted by Froze were the Days

  1. Yes perhaps re-worded so your correct - more consistently being modelled then...I know everybody is searching for cold and snow but there are 2 sides to every coin anyway with that may laughs on my original post I'll think I'll do stand up as a profession.
  2. Well the last 3 ecm det runs (day 9/10) have shown progressive heights nearer our south or south west coupled with GFS runs but further into FI (consistently)...aren't the issues over the next few days micro details in regards to the Hemispheric pattern?
  3. Fancy people now cherry picking the GFS/P - as mentioned the old GFS needs to go in the skip, it just gives peeps on here one less model to get excited or cheesed off about
  4. Get in there!...CFS says yes for deep cold in mid-February lol! - I'll chew my hand off if that happens.
  5. yeah but it's the 06z run - I wonder what it's verification stats are like particularly this winter, pretty poor I should think.
  6. True but to me even when we do get colder uppers over the country (next week) there is a Pm element hitting into this so don't expect much in the way of settling snow and if so it might be very transient in nature, I can just envisage a lot of damp chilly days ahead once we get the mild weekend out the way. Problem is that we've all been fuelled by the SSW and good background signals from global models plus low solar minima so expectations have been high.
  7. Looks like he's just following the MetO forecast...John and team were hardly correct for December were they?
  8. Lets not over exaggerate that, I'd say a minority of people saw snow in the south east, some people in the north and north west of london and parts of the city (particularly high ground) did see some snow to varying depths...I saw some very brief snow yesterday which left a dusting (for half an hour) and what I gather was defo in the minority!
  9. Dear me!...models don't look that brilliant this morning, I know I'm not particularly helping anyone or showing any guidance to back this up but it really is a case of model fatigue now. Been chasing rainbows for the last 2 months or so. Nice to have seen a brief flutter of snow yesterday and some recent air frosts but this really should be the norm in January.
  10. 18Z looks all a bit strange from around 230z onwards with a floppy area of low heights covering most of the continent to our east - one thing that is becoming apparent over recent runs is a drop of anything sourced from the east in the foreseeable. As I think Nick F posted earlier today we're seeing a -AO but sadly a signal for still somewhat of a +NAO.
  11. Yes I know...still seem to be a lot of discrepancies. So his argument (reef) is based on Yorkshire v Staffordshire then (I remember Atlantic 252) as he is remarking that 90's were better as per top of the page, not that much distance between them maybe elevation thing?...on the other side of the coin he seems to have experienced more 2010's 1c below average months then down in my neck of the woods as I've only recorded 3. By the way Jan 2013 was only 0.3c below normal. But as mentioned no doubt regional variations but I'd say from my experience the 90's have been slightly better than the 2010's which had a number of cold months clustered (2010).
  12. Certainly the feeling I'm getting too...the Canadian PV lobe just needs to shut up shop.
  13. Ends with some HLB but doesn't look particularly strong...but there's potential there at day 10
  14. Are you sure about the 90's winter months of at least 1c below average? that doesn't add up. I live in Essex and have winter records going back to 1983, off my head I can think of at least 6 (maybe more) 90's winter months that were in that category: Dec 1990, Feb 1991, Dec 1995, Feb 1996, Dec 1996 and January 1997 so I'm sure if Essex had these cold months that Hebdon did in Yorkshire too. Could also scrutinise 2010's 1c below - to my knowledge only Jan and Feb 2010 and Dec 2010 have made the grade (so 3 in all) and Hadley Centre backs this up! The winter mean average temp for '2010''s undoubtedly skewed by the very cold month of December 2010...on the whole I would say the 90's in more southern Britain undoubtedly were cooler than 2010's but there will be variations around our Isles.
  15. First snow of the winter here (at bluddy ruddy well last) - a light dusting and about 1c outside!!
  16. I'll think the potential at day 10 and thereafter will be unbelievable on the ECM tonight so much in fact that I won't be able to sleep until tomorrows 0z ECM which will leave me in even greater expectation until eventually April is here and that full on easterly arrives! Full on brace position currently...
  17. Slug going no where even on the GFSP - occasionally tapping into some brief cold air either from the north or east but it's transient in nature, the slug is king here. Just watch the Azores area in future runs and if there is lowering of heights in the vicinity then we're in business!
  18. But what do they have in common?...yes the Azores slug will stay there but just oriented differently, some chilly days ahead but certainly not the Freeze the majority of us want...the models will drive me to drink (ah Ladyboys).
  19. Personally don't see it...Azores slug will stay in situ, and just watch that Canadian PV lobe extend itself!
  20. What I've read over the last few days...the down welling continues to affect the trop as it has been a very slow response and will continue to into early February so not sure Mr Petagna's remarks above will have much influence over the coming weeks on the what we'll experience. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
  21. There's been 'hope' since November reading these and particularly the 30 dayer's...
  22. Differences at around 140 between the 0z and 6z with increased WAA up the west coast of Greenland which doesn't occur on the 0z which is more progressive, in turn the 6z presents greater heights round the Greenland area which in turn with heights near Scandi presents us with greater chances of a cold North easterly thereafter, 6z & 18z runs seem to be bringing out what we want to see but are they credible?. The ecm det keep on churning out rather underwhelming runs (though okay for Scotland on the latest 0z).
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