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Everything posted by Froze were the Days
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Froze were the Days replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
No chance of that happening!...but if the ECM is fairly accurate it wouldn't surprise me that some northern parts/Scotland get a real dumping. A bulbous low pressure won't keep moving northwards against some form of northern blocking and will come to a halt somewhere. Check out 8th-16th January 1977...similar circumstances/synoptics that not many people remember. Snow to rain in the south and central parts, Scotland and particularly the Highlands a real snow fest. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Froze were the Days replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This ECM run is a bit like the GFS run of yesterday (was it the 06z)? when we had the runner across southern parts and then another low moving northwards from the south west...strange how the EC does seem to be picking slight patterns from the GFS 24 hours later... -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Froze were the Days replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Nope! not a slider...snow to rain affair pushing northwards through southern UK I would think, but the ECM is a good run (better than expected) -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Froze were the Days replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That shows signs of where the GFS is heading thereafter...GH block weakening to the north -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Froze were the Days replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Let's hope so - ECM has really been scrooge like in handing out mouth waterers even if they aren't correct! -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Froze were the Days replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You're a bit late...not so on the next run. I'd be very surprised to see the ECM model something similar tonight. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Froze were the Days replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Be aware MetO updates can be off the mark in the medium /long term - remember 2018/19 Winter, the cold that never transpired! -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Froze were the Days replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I take it that must be from that low moving in from the south west against the Am airmass?...that's 8/9 days away! -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Froze were the Days replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The amount of times I've heard that the last few days...then looked and been underwhelmed. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Froze were the Days replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Who does the updates? -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Froze were the Days replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Back to the SSW again? ever since the beginning of December...that certainly waxes and wanes. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Froze were the Days replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Strikes me it's still an evolving picture (other than UKMO - steadfast)...Big bulbous vortex over Scandinavia with the coldest north easterlies well to the north and the Am airmass not digging southwards and the dastardly Azores low wanting to make it's presence felt. As Bluearmy said picking up on a theme at D8/D9 might not be good...lots of wriggle room to go pear shaped for the majority of the UK (gem) or snowy nirvana for the south/central parts (GFS). -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Froze were the Days replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
One thing I've noticed over the last day is how the vortex over Scandinavia has become one large bulbous organised structure rather than smaller cells...it seems to want to stay now well to the north (on GFS/ECM) and on this run pushing westwards which in my mind keeps the real cold air away...and opens the door further south for low pressure.