Froze were the Days
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Posts posted by Froze were the Days
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1 hour ago, Polaris said:
Watching Look East last night and they had a whole segment on this so called cold spell.
Temps of -2c and a gritter lorry for frost. Look east described it as an Icy Cold period.
Other countries must laugh and laugh at us.
I guess anything to fill a news bulletin to keep up the narrative
More salt on the roads than any flakes falling
...I remember when it use to be the reverse and seeing a council gritter was a rare thing, now days they come out if a grass frost is forecast.
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51 minutes ago, Snowangel-MK said:
Another very cold night and day tomorrow to come, even without snow I’d keep this rather than what’s coming by Sunday - hopefully looking at this we will miss the worst of it !
Problem is we miss the worst of everything!...this neck of the woods the weather becomes plainer and plainer other than if you like heat and humidity in the summer.
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11 minutes ago, lassie23 said:
I heard that a Scandi high was supposed to develop next month so the potential is there, I wonder if the Met Office has mentioned anything?
More chance of me dating Maya Jama...I thought Mr Hugo posted the other day the weak SSW had 'shuffled the pack' against northern blocking for the coming weeks? still a small chance but we haven't had a decent easterly since 2018 though Feb 2021 had one which was cold enough with decent dp's but only coastal districts of Essex and Suffolk saw any snow (for once my location).
1 hour ago, lassie23 said:Has anyone seen a snow grain yet?
I've seen some polystyrene balls
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1 hour ago, snowblind said:
Still 4 degrees here. When's this cold air supposed to arrive?
You'll probably find daily maxes will be warmer than last week...generally between 2 and 5c here over the last few days, can't see them being any lower than this with the long sea track.
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15 minutes ago, Downburst said:
Plenty of evidence for excellent winter weather into and through February. Should be more high pressure than usual, with anomaly for high pushing to our north west. Hopefully cool, frosty and maybe snow later in February. Don’t go looking for nirvana on every op run for your own sanity, totally mad some of the day 10 analysis, but there you go. What’s wrong with a dry February I don’t know.
Ashtray on a motorbike come to mind at that range...next week (21st-28th) was showing light pink (smallish area) in mid-north Atlantic to Greenland - a very muted signal, but it looks like it will be a typical +NAO pattern so nothing like what it was modelling about 6 days ago for that period.
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Latest in the MAD thread according to Matt Hugo whom was really banging the cold drum (amongst others) for the 2nd half of Winter is that partly a displaced SSW (didn't think we were any where near one) has shuffled the pack not in our favour
hence mild for the foreseeable after this 'cold' spell...well there usually is an excuse from even the experienced ones, if not a SSW not working for us, it's the MJO stuck in the wrong phase or Indian dipole stuck in a positive phase...the excuses go on.
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20 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:
I've warned before they don't always lead to cold, and can also spoil what are good synoptics if there before the warming. I n ver even look there, it's a real shame how things seem to be going down.
So that's 2 winters running a SSW has done nothing?...wasn't there a minor one (a displacement) last February and we ended up on the mild side. You really can't win here in the UK.
Somebody posted an anomaly 1970-2022 just before the winter which showed the deficit in the NH in days of falling snow and guess where was the biggest?...yep! NW Europe.
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19 minutes ago, lassie23 said:
yes Feb is going to be sunny 25c lol
...and certain experienced forecasters on here will be wiping the yolk off their faces!
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12 hours ago, qwertyK said:
It seems like probably since 2020 that although summer tempreatures are getting hotter, winter feels a lot colder. Probably because we've had some mild winters and very mild winter days, like in 2019 when we had a 21C day in February. But I think about the last few years. The winter of 2021 had a fair bit of snow where I am in the south anyway. The following December in 2022 we had really heavy snowfall and lows of like -6C in my area (essex). March 2023 we had some very late snow. This November I was in Southampton and it snowed and didn't get above zero one day. Then it snowed a few days ago, didn't settle but we've had some very low tempreatures being forecast, again, I speak for the southeast. I know it's nothing compared to say 1963 or other years but it seems like there is a trend towards colder maxima in winter, like I can't remember the last time before 2021 where I live where 2C or 4C was the max forecast for some days unless say, 2018 or 2017. Again not much snow but some very cold temps. I think the current cold weather is quite interesting considering it should be pretty mild given El Nino etc. Feels like summers are getting hotter, and winters are getting colder.
Monthly CET's prove that they're not!...we do get the odd cold spell/snap from time to time whether snowy or not (mainly not where I live) and nothing unusual in that but these spells are soon offset by milder continuous spells soon after as we'll find out after this week - look how continuously mild it was from mid-December into the New Year.
Without doubt getting milder.
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Never in the field of meteorology model watching was so little given to so many...we will view in the gfs, we will view in the ecm and ukmo and get cross model agreement, and then upgrades and downgrades, have fantastic ec46's and glosea monthlies and rock solid ensembles and still be left empty handed...
the hunt for snow will go, we will never give in!
Okay lets all go to lapland next winter
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Latest FAX shows a convergence of fronts (one coming down from the north) on Wednesday...so who knows, maybe a chance?
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Probably trend further south closer to the time...ECM 12z
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2 minutes ago, Sparky68 said:
Something along the lines of " if it doesnt snow on the 15th they would run through the streets naked" or words to that effect
Looks to be too early, saying that it might well up in the Shetland Isles...anyway I've just had my tea
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Just now, Sparky68 said:
Got your ticket to see Scott and Matt running through the streets starkers?
What were they saying?
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4 minutes ago, Snowangel-MK said:
For now - could still go either way
ECM/UKMO showing nothing of the sort!...well down into France (It's the GFS for God's sake!")
In the MAD thread some members are asking FRed (BFTP) if he see's heights growing into Scandinavia...might as well ask some seaweed with his track record...but as he's a 'coldie' he'll be telling us to batten down the hatches due to incoming blizzards in February.
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25 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:
Again subtle hints of a few runs trending colder again on the mogreps...come on folks work with me here
Too fatigued to work with you after that marathon for crumbs of cold
...give me a decent Scandi block not a GH for a change!
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I said a week or so ago I'll be donning my Pat Jennings gloves...
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Very glum in the mod thread
...raging zonality after this much heralded cold spell which will equate to some frosts and sunshine (yay!) in this neck of the woods.
So much for the meto forecast of a period of somewhat milder conditions and possibility of more block conditions come February again...from experience once we've had some form of cold in January and the Atlantic then ramps up it usually stays that way for most of the rest of Winter but then again Matt Hugo was saying this wasn't a normal winter and the second half of it looked very interesting in terms blocking scenarios backed up by Glosea/EC/CFS seasonal models. (I'll hold him and them to that)
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40 minutes ago, JimBob said:
Well the models have firmed up on a cold week but by this this time next week some parts of the south could be into double digits. Snow chances look at a premium, but maybe a few surprises down the road. As always looking at models 10 days in advance has proven fruitless.
Not when it comes to an active Atlantic they're not...different otherwise!
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4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
Agree, may as well have been mild all along, at least the EC in FI looks fairly dry but maybe 14 degrees?
That's about as bad a chart all winter we've seen in terms of mild...so much for the metO saying a return to somewhat milder conditions, a lot at steak after this breakdown in the cold after next week.
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8 minutes ago, Don said:
I do indeed remember their forecast for winter 2018/19. However, next week's cold spell is (almost) certain to come off now and we have an El Nino this year combined with a E-QBO, which wasn't the case in 2019. Also, as Bullseye says, they still think there is a greater chance of colder conditions prevailing into February. That said, I wouldn't hang my hat on anything when it comes to weather forecasting in this country, especially nowadays! Not an easy task!!
Well agree in part with Bullseye re February still standing firm but feel the important part is what happens after the cold spell of next week (though fairly cold currently). 'spells of rain and stronger winds' seems to be an increase of Atlantic activity as opposed to an 'interlude of slightly milder more unsettled weather for a time' - maybe just overreading?
Yes El Nino/eQBO might play out differently to 2018/19...too much emphasis put on teleconnections now days in relation QBO, but we'll see, I'm forever the pessimist when it comes to UK and cold.
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4 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:
Daytime maxes around 0-1c during the week.
That's not going to happen in London...you're getting carried away but yes colder than average for the time of year but not noteworthy but is anything now days? Cold icy spell December 2022 comes to mind.
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36 minutes ago, Don said:
True, but it only says milder interludes, rather than more prolonged milder conditions. However, I was disappointed to see that mentioned as a possibility, albeit they currently feel it is more likely to be cold overall. Perhaps the long range models are wobbling?
Between the tons of rain on a modified Pm airmass I would think...remember the metO forecast back in 2018/19 and the cold which never came?...looks like they're already backing down. I certainly wouldn't hang your hat on what a few are saying for northern blocking for next month.
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15 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:
Weeks of potential has turned into a week of cooler than average conditions and frost. I fear many people will feel exactly the same. Been well and truly taken up the garden path once again.
Simple solution...don't go in the Mod thread, far too many posters over hype charts/ec 46 weeklies etc. they see from 9/10+ days away even as in this case at one time there was cross model agreement (but again at a certain range) and it happens most winters. If you were to follow just one model i.e ecm (certainly not the gfs) you really would wonder what all the fuss was about.
Less information = less stress = less disappointment.
Mind you saying that certainly a percentage 'get off' on the chase whatever the outcome.
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SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on
in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion
Posted
He has been today on R2...he's got a new single out 'Almost like being in Love' - he's decided to go back to the 50's big band sound.
You really can't win - sorry!