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Froze were the Days

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Everything posted by Froze were the Days

  1. You'll probably find daily maxes will be warmer than last week...generally between 2 and 5c here over the last few days, can't see them being any lower than this with the long sea track.
  2. Ashtray on a motorbike come to mind at that range...next week (21st-28th) was showing light pink (smallish area) in mid-north Atlantic to Greenland - a very muted signal, but it looks like it will be a typical +NAO pattern so nothing like what it was modelling about 6 days ago for that period.
  3. Latest in the MAD thread according to Matt Hugo whom was really banging the cold drum (amongst others) for the 2nd half of Winter is that partly a displaced SSW (didn't think we were any where near one) has shuffled the pack not in our favour hence mild for the foreseeable after this 'cold' spell...well there usually is an excuse from even the experienced ones, if not a SSW not working for us, it's the MJO stuck in the wrong phase or Indian dipole stuck in a positive phase...the excuses go on.
  4. So that's 2 winters running a SSW has done nothing?...wasn't there a minor one (a displacement) last February and we ended up on the mild side. You really can't win here in the UK. Somebody posted an anomaly 1970-2022 just before the winter which showed the deficit in the NH in days of falling snow and guess where was the biggest?...yep! NW Europe.
  5. Monthly CET's prove that they're not!...we do get the odd cold spell/snap from time to time whether snowy or not (mainly not where I live) and nothing unusual in that but these spells are soon offset by milder continuous spells soon after as we'll find out after this week - look how continuously mild it was from mid-December into the New Year. Without doubt getting milder.
  6. Never in the field of meteorology model watching was so little given to so many...we will view in the gfs, we will view in the ecm and ukmo and get cross model agreement, and then upgrades and downgrades, have fantastic ec46's and glosea monthlies and rock solid ensembles and still be left empty handed... the hunt for snow will go, we will never give in! Okay lets all go to lapland next winter
  7. Latest FAX shows a convergence of fronts (one coming down from the north) on Wednesday...so who knows, maybe a chance?
  8. ECM/UKMO showing nothing of the sort!...well down into France (It's the GFS for God's sake!") In the MAD thread some members are asking FRed (BFTP) if he see's heights growing into Scandinavia...might as well ask some seaweed with his track record...but as he's a 'coldie' he'll be telling us to batten down the hatches due to incoming blizzards in February.
  9. Too fatigued to work with you after that marathon for crumbs of cold ...give me a decent Scandi block not a GH for a change!
  10. Very glum in the mod thread ...raging zonality after this much heralded cold spell which will equate to some frosts and sunshine (yay!) in this neck of the woods. So much for the meto forecast of a period of somewhat milder conditions and possibility of more block conditions come February again...from experience once we've had some form of cold in January and the Atlantic then ramps up it usually stays that way for most of the rest of Winter but then again Matt Hugo was saying this wasn't a normal winter and the second half of it looked very interesting in terms blocking scenarios backed up by Glosea/EC/CFS seasonal models. (I'll hold him and them to that)
  11. That's about as bad a chart all winter we've seen in terms of mild...so much for the metO saying a return to somewhat milder conditions, a lot at steak after this breakdown in the cold after next week.
  12. Well agree in part with Bullseye re February still standing firm but feel the important part is what happens after the cold spell of next week (though fairly cold currently). 'spells of rain and stronger winds' seems to be an increase of Atlantic activity as opposed to an 'interlude of slightly milder more unsettled weather for a time' - maybe just overreading? Yes El Nino/eQBO might play out differently to 2018/19...too much emphasis put on teleconnections now days in relation QBO, but we'll see, I'm forever the pessimist when it comes to UK and cold.
  13. That's not going to happen in London...you're getting carried away but yes colder than average for the time of year but not noteworthy but is anything now days? Cold icy spell December 2022 comes to mind.
  14. Between the tons of rain on a modified Pm airmass I would think...remember the metO forecast back in 2018/19 and the cold which never came?...looks like they're already backing down. I certainly wouldn't hang your hat on what a few are saying for northern blocking for next month.
  15. Simple solution...don't go in the Mod thread, far too many posters over hype charts/ec 46 weeklies etc. they see from 9/10+ days away even as in this case at one time there was cross model agreement (but again at a certain range) and it happens most winters. If you were to follow just one model i.e ecm (certainly not the gfs) you really would wonder what all the fuss was about. Less information = less stress = less disappointment. Mind you saying that certainly a percentage 'get off' on the chase whatever the outcome.
  16. So much for this 'dry' spell of weather...just the same as December i.e. dull, cloudy without the rain but colder (which is always a nuisance without any frosts/snow) had some drizzle yesterday. God! our winters are useless...
  17. It's the bulge out into the Norwegian Sea which is the primary pain in the butt for not keeping the cold going though UKMO makes less of it and orientates differently...on the GFS it's weakening the GH all the time.
  18. Very insightful!...got lost on me probably due to living on the Essex snow shield coast! - fairly similar synoptics maybe next week?...did that snow come from the northerly or from frontal stuff coming up from the south/south west?
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