Froze were the Days
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Posts posted by Froze were the Days
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These updates are just baffling...stuck in 2018/19 mode.
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Don Personally as said I haven't found it at all accurate after maybe the first week and a bit...will be about as accurate as some seasonal models for this Feb including GLOSEA...all about to fail miserably.
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Nick F Massive Iberian Heights partly to blame and a very mild European continent...
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Don Yes the EC46 I should think...not very accurate in January, predicted more of a muted signal of a continuation of heights to the north after the first initial week with the GP high. I'd say that model is okay for a week maybe two and forget week 3/4.
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Daniel* Yes my mistake...I meant the snowline on an occluded front which stalled just to the east of London but as mentioned the real cold did get westward BUT that was the last time other than the SSW of 2018 we saw a major retrogression of a Siberian High move westwards to effect the UK.
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blizzard81 Last time that happened other than the induced SSW of 2018 was back in Feb 2012 and even then the real cold only got to the east of London and a stalled front from the Atlantic dumped a bit, I think we're really clutching at straws and even then we'd probably get a short wave develop over the Norwegian Sea or something which usually crops up to put the Siberian Express on the buffers.
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The GFS 12z det run is ridiculous...if that was anything close to the mark we could be staring down the face of the mildest February. Little or no action happening on the near continent at all (as per in the summer)...half the problem when we need to see lows spill eastwards rather than fill to act as a trigger to get some westwards retrogression of what cold there is.
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Matty88 Pretty much the same in 2020/21 which was one of the 'better' winters of recent years...northern and central areas had snow on a couple of occasions (particularly around the New Year period if memory serves me right). In this neck of the woods very little with marginal events an easterly in early January that wasn't cold enough and eventually in some parts of coastal Essex and Suffolk in February cold enough air with low dew points arrived but even that with snowfall was on a smallish scale.
Certainly feels like snow events of recent times are becoming more of a north/south divide.
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snowblind As I said back before the January 'cold spell' I purchased some pat Jennings gloves just for such occasions, 1:1 scale as he had such giant hands
no barbie dolls, action man/men or lego are going to slip through those bad boys...I've been proved quite astute in doing so as they're being flung everywhere, either that or the MAD thread has really become that predictable.
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44 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:
UKMO 168h preparing for Scandi height rise, similar to many EPS members at that lead time.
Sorry...but how have you come to the conclusion based on that 168z UKMO chart and LP over Scandinavia (again)?...you could easily argue too that there could be Iberian height rises.
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4 hours ago, E17boy said:
THE SEARCH FOR WINTER GOES ON
As it has done from the 1st week of December that was arguably the coldest snap we had in the south east although one or two hard frosts in mid-January and some cold days but this really is nothing untoward.
It appears it will be another winter that looks far better from a model watching perspective 'will it won't it' without nothing largely happening (okay, towards the north and higher elevated areas and briefly parts of Kent/Sussex has seen some snow) but waiting here to actually see some snow falling...if so the third winter running.
Even in mild winters gone by you experience snow falling or the briefest of accumulations i.e. 2000, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007...but other than the SSW of feb 2018 and feb 2021 it really has been slim pickings in this neck of the woods for the last decade.
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northwestsnow Don't watch it...usually it's the model that bangs on the cold drum with some OTT runs but it doesn't want to know this time. It keeps trying to deliver in deep FI but will probably come to fruition eventually once we get into March.
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The hysteria has begun!...usual suspects showing every chart possible and imaginable that real cold and snow is on the way, just hope that newbies don't go in there as they'll get caught up in a tidal wave of BS!
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What would we do without the good ol' GFS for winter entertainment?...particularly the 06z runs, you just know these won't come to fruition.
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Good old 06z still throwing out the more extreme runs...ditch!
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06z run throwing up the cold DET run again...hardly backed up by even the other GFS runs for what they are worth
If we are to get any real cold from an easterly or northerly I fancy back end of Feb or beginning of March (again)...it's all a bit meh currently with the output.
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@northwestsnow Problem is mate it's the 6z!...doesn't verify well and to be fair I don't take much notice full stop of the GFS in FI, maybe some trends.
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14 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:
Agreed,
However, the surprising thing is that tge MetO were taken in by all the cold signals as their MRF has been for colder than average conditions since early January and laughingly still is!
The MetO aren't known for cold ramping so some signals must have been clear, to me it demonstrates that all those teleconnections are useless as a forecasting tool, conditions over the next two weeks being the exact opposite to those predicted.
I would have had more success asking the Cat to point to the correct NH pressure anomaly for late January!
Andy
Agree!...MetO were also wrong in 2018/19 predicting cold blocked conditions in late January into February which never materialised.
As for teleconnections in these times of global warming...
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Amazing just how consistent the ECM det runs have been over the last few days...you can almost guarantee out to D10 will come to fruition, shame we can't say that about more blocked -NAO conditions, lucky to feel confident of anything over 5 days!
If you're a coldie it looks pretty bleak...but that's looked the way since the breakdown in my opinion.
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32 minutes ago, Metwatch said:
March last year?
Well in part, maybe I'm reflecting to my backyard - 8th and 10th were cold days but no snow and wet and miserable what I could remember (8th). Other march's such as 2004, 2006, 2008, 2013 and 2018 all brought falling and laying snow of at least a day.
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18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
I think a lot of us are wondering how we go cold again and past experience does suggest it will take a while for that horrid profile to the NW ( yet AGAIN) to disperse..
We can confidently write off the next 100 days which takes us into Feb so a whole month of Feb is up for grabs but we need to see something in the extended timeframe ( Eps GEFS) to have even a hope of a change
I feel bad because although we've had around 9 days of snow-covered terrain in Dec/ Jan its been very slim pickings and even moreso for lots of folk still waiting their first flake ..
Agree!...and you are confident 100 days of no cold in sight
As you say slim pickings indeed, in fact no pickings here for yet another January - no notable snowfall here since 2013 which is ridiculous and no doubt for many southerners as well.
One thing that did surprise me with Scandinavia so cold for an extended period why no surface high pressure developed and always seemed to have a vortex/troughs/low pressure there, 80% or so time that's not good if your after snow in southern England.
Hope I'm wrong but I'm looking too where we might get another cold episode...maybe a wait until March again as we haven't had a cold start to one since the infamous SSW March 2018.
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26 minutes ago, Johnp said:
Is this the first winter is over post?
Things can change very quickly as the 6z run shows later in the run.
Probably not...but you're really clutching at straws if you're looking into the GFS 06z run in deep FI, a lot of the stress would be taken out of model watching (when hunting cold spells) if this model didn't exist or at least reduced to just 0z and 12z runs.
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My gut feeling is in terms of cold we can write this winter off, yes a bit early days but looking at the ECM the Atlantic is more fired up than it has been all winter. Historically of recent winters after a cold/chilly spell in January and the synoptics become more +NAO thereafter there's no way back into February, not counting out cooler spells with Pm incursions but that's nothing out of the ordinary.
Happy to be proved wrong...but that's where my money would lay.
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A tad nippy the last few nights as shown by my outside dripping tap...
Nice to get these cold crisp sunny days with frosts but doesn't cut it if there's no snow (we've had a few episodes like this over the last few years)...it's like a Hawaiian pizza without the pineapple, a dartboard without a bullseye and the Chuckle brothers without Barry.
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
phil nw. Really? more cloud and bland non descriptive weather for days I should think - only positive I can think of is that it will be dry. Roll on Spring this Winter has been nauseous...