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Froze were the Days

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Posts posted by Froze were the Days


  1. Nobody has mentioned the ECM, I wonder why?...I have not followed the GFS since spring and will continue not to during this Autumn and Winter (for my own blood pressure reasons). ECM showing a massive difference from a warm 'blocky' Europe to much colder conditions to the north and north east and not surprisingly all the cold air missing the UK in the latter stages of the run.


  2. I can only remember the 'odd' October with a frost towards the end of the month in the last decade, they are certainly becoming a rare thing. Novembers back in the 80's and even 90's had air frosts (not just ground/grass frosts)...I use to practice golf down the local driving range in the late 80's after the season had drawn to a close and quite often in the evening being wrapped up well with a frost developing on the grass whilst hitting balls, don't see that now in these parts (certainly not in the evening).


  3. Simply don't follow the GFS with it's 4 runs a day (one which we all know is more than a giggle) and hence 'less' let downs. I haven't even noticed a northerly on the ECM which I have only been following since the Spring.


  4. 57 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

    this weather is garbage

    If only we could bin it like garbage!...even though the rainfall radar shows no rain here in these parts currently outside the skies are just leaden, some brief sunshine yesterday afternoon but the last 72+ hours have been shocking. I think in my area it has has been one of the 'drier' areas in the region this month but have still totalled near 40mm.


  5. 1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

    I'm pretty sure back in 09,or somewhere around there, another epic fail regarding a mild winter which turned out to be much colder!!

    It was winter 08/09 the models/MetO got it wrong, I remember as it was the only winter I haven't recorded since 1983 (yes due to illness and other factors)...at that stage I was really starting to lose faith as a few winters before this Philip Eden kept mentioning a cold winter was overdue and then we had that run of colder ones. Weather can make fools of us all.


  6. 22 hours ago, Mr TOAD said:

    Wow. 

    Wednesday 9th October - max of 26C with clear skies

    Thursday 10th October - max of -2C with snow showers

     

    Now THAT is changeable weather, not the Atlantic-driven dross we get in this country.

    Saw that the other day - only a passing shot of very cold air and don't forget the city of Denver is at a high altitude (near a mile up) but that is what can happen when you're in the heart of a large continent.


  7. Can understand the case put forward if we have our 'typical' winter that we have experienced of recent years which has no doubt been exacerbated by warmer sst's and other factors producing less sunshine/mild/rain/less frosts etc. but to me the variation of possibilities on the table is greater in the winter season than any other season we just need things to work in our favour again which hasn't largely happened since 2013.

    Sadly for me the expectation and anticipation always exceeds what we experience a good 8 times out of 10.


  8. On 04/10/2019 at 11:24, Yarmy said:

    September's NAO came in (marginally) negative at -0.16

    https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/nao/

    For what it's worth, that's 5 months in a row of -NAO, in contrast to just 2 of the previous 19.  October looks like it could be negative too, although still early and I've probably just jinxed it. :oldsmile:

    We had 16 (count 'em) months in a row of -NAO around the 2009/2010 period. Solar signal or just a stochastic process? 

    Lets be honest only 2 of those -NAO months have impacted on this country, May and particularly June. July, August and September have not (this largely due to higher pressure over Greenland and that is it)...to me it has felt that depressions in the Atlantic have been more 'active' since July and more active than recent summers. So far this Autumn I'd say the same with the pattern not changing that much with abundant high pressure over Europe with all the action in the Atlantic, all this talk about -NAO it certainly had me fooled since July that's for sure!...if I hadn't seen the thumbnails.


  9. Sadly James Madden is at it again - The Mirror over the last day, still referring to him as an 'expert'...

    “There is a strong chance of widespread frosts and the chance of snowfall which will set the scene for November.

    “This will pave the way for what is shaping up to be a colder than average winter with some extreme cold weather events.

    “While these could start to make an impact within the next few weeks they will be particularly troublesome from December onwards.

    “Snow events have been few and far between in recent years, but this winter is looking favourable to bring snow event after snow event as weather systems from the Atlantic clash with cold stagnated air over the UK.

    That's 2019/20 over then...


  10. 3 hours ago, Badgers01 said:

    Nice glad I didn’t rain all the time ! Literally on the M6 now heading to Keswick for a 2 day short staycation ... not raining but quite overcast just going over Shap !

    Sorry off topic here...enjoy, great part of the country but by God they half charge up there, Cafe's etc. (and it is out of season). Stayed at Windermere but visited Keswick also on one of the rainy days (went to the pencil museum) :)

    A couple of ground frosts once the rain cleared - something I haven't experienced for years during October (well not down here).


  11. 5 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

    How often has it been cooler at the start only for it to warm up during the month 🤦‍♂️

    Almost impossible to get through a calendar month with at least one warm Tm or Continental tropical spell which more than off-sets what cooler Pm daytime or Nightime air (as per this month) we experience...it seems to me!

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