Froze were the Days

These posts should really go in the Winter thoughts and chat forum...but here's some seasonals (forecasted from this month) - reddish areas are heights, blues low heights. Always found the DWD (German model) fairly accurate or the party pooper when other models look good for cold, JMA (Japanese) always seems to show cold blocking at this time of year for Winter but as we get nearer backs down.... Hope this helps.

True! (more of an expansive slug in my mind)...a mean of all the seasonals would probably put heights through the UK into more northern areas of Europe but wouldn't take much to head towards a less desirable position.

add 2020 to that...even milder than that and nobody will bother putting the heating on, got my kindling wood, coal and logs at the ready to start the fossil fuel burning again (not that it's stopped). By the way not sure any Seasonal LRF is predicting an Omega block, a euro slug a far greater possibility.

Nope! not at all...so surreal to have a bowling ball low (at times) other times more elongated south to north continually in that area, in my 40 years of looking at synoptics it's just not right but we are entering new territory with our climate, who knows what waits in store over the coming months? 8c from a north easterly, 18c from a southerly?

Just seen the latest ECM det run...nothing short of ridiculous! LP continually to the south west/west of the UK and continued southerly warmth, god help the melt down in here if we get a north easterly/easterly sometime in November and it's not at all cold due to the continued warm continent.

Nope! going by the latest ECM outputs won't need to for sometime either!

Motorbike and ashtray comes to mind when it comes to Accuweather's Winter forecasts particularly these ridiculous sectional weather conditions for 3 months over Europe - 'Cold burst' chortle!

Medium term looks dire on latest ECM output if you're after chilly conditions or at least the continent cooling down...conditions up from the south or south east and then somewhat of a pattern change to the south west and more Atlantic originated but height still over Europe and low pressure still out over the sea...nothing changes! I think there was a hint of sarcasm in that post ...still looks dreadful in the medium term (at least).

Can't see how a large block towards south east Europe is favourable at all here...obviously it's difficult to read exactly what that will lead to as a variable in permutations could occur, also the size of the block makes a difference.

A lot of those C3S outlooks on paper look good but could quite easily translate into Anti-Cyclonic nothingness, and as BA mentions above a hangover of heights into Europe could mix in somewhat milder stuff from the south east, fog and some frost a distinct possibility. I'll take anything I see with a huge dollop of salt going by recent years seasonal predictions (2018/19) comes to mind.

Never tried the string and handle job?...okay if you're willing to put the door back on with some new hinges. Me earlier this afternoon...

I hate dentists as well (sorry for not talking about the weather)...I didn't visit my NHS dentist for a number of years (have a real phobia) but then part of a front tooth fell out and then felt I had to visit (mind the gap) a lot of work had to be done elsehwere...in the last couple of months or so I've had 7 extractions, 6 fillings, 1 root canal and 2 crowns plus new dentures top and bottom and have a visit today for further work. I've been going so frequently I've lost the phobia as I know what to expect, I've been going private and as you'd expect my wallet is running on empty now, £100 for an extraction, £120 for a filling! On another note nice mild calm bright day just ruined by where I have to go this afternoon!

68th day running we've hit at least 21c/70f in my location - ridiculous! 22.8c currently and sunny.

Couldn't agree more! house is continually warm, I go out jogging every other night around 8ish' and I haven't seen the thermometer dip below 20c at that time, but where is the cooler/fresher conditions going to come from? no sign of the Atlantic barraging through or any north westerlies or Pm air...just more southerlies or slack continental drift by the looks of it in the outlook. Last time in my location we failed to make 21c/70f was way back on 30th June!!...says it all.

I swear some BBC weather presenters 'dumb down' for Joe Public...or on the flip side try to make the weather appear like a soap opera but then the Beeb does have their own agenda.

So not the 'autumnal feel' that Ben Rich kept on mentioning in 2 of his forecasts in mid-week? lets be honest you don't get autumnal feeling weather in cyclonic southerlies at this time of year...

So much for this unsettled spell this weekend that the BBC was forecasting (particularly for western areas of the UK) with heavy rain...it just hasn't materialised, radar at the moment just shows the odd very scattered heavy shower in the midlands.

Well yes...if you're not under any cloud/rain, after all we are in a cyclonic southerly...looking at the latest radar very little rainfall other than if you live out in Irish Sea/Cornwall.

Ben Rich talking more drivel on the BBC1 1:30 forecast saying this weekend will feel more 'autumnal' - really!?! because some areas to the west will be caught under some persistent rain and breezy, but hey lets forget about mentioning the temperatures! Here the in the south east summer just rolls on...here looks continuing dry and warm with temps up to 25c. The system bringing this more unsettled weather for the west looks more associated with a tropical storm (if it was in warmer waters) than anything autumnal from the Atlantic...outlook into the foreseeable, maybe some rain getting into the south/southeast next week but then possible a pressure rise from the south by D10 (again) and not surprisingly STILL warmer than average, when will this end?.

That LP just lollops around for days on end!...and notice once again with practically all low pressure systems this summer goes nowhere near the continent keeping us still in fairly warm muggy air. I believe it's been 2 months now in my neck of the woods where max temps haven't failed to get up to at least 21c/70f!!

Seriously! how can a LP just hang about circulating around to the south west of the UK for near a week (latest ECM runs out to D10)...all that will do is prolong summer, some dam strange synoptics continuing. I'm sure the Atlantic will wake up just when we don't want it to after spending months being 'dead in the water' quite literally!

Wow! just looked at 204z on the latest ECM run this evening and the whole of the continent, Europe, Russia, up to northern Scandinavia is in or near to at least +10 850 uppers, that's global warming right there!...even back in the colder ye old days you never get the opposite of that with cold uppers in the coldest of winters on such a swathe of the continent!

Yes must be cheesing, the storm literally popped out of nowhere - 1 minute sunny and then pooring down with thunder. Front lawn has some puddles on it!!...without rubbing it in too much Is it dry at SWF?

Absolutely hammering it down here (out of nowhere)...thunder as well, how I've missed rain... won't be saying that in a few months time! Lots of rumbles of thunder/lightning continuing 20 minutes after the initial poor down.

August 2020 was pretty warm!...average of 17.7c was the warmest I think since 2003!...sadly I feel a hot August and possibly into September will do diddly squat for our chances of a chilly winter, but then again you could say that about anytime leading into Autumn for the last 9 years!