Froze were the Days

They're about as much use as an ashtray on a motorbike, they change quite a bit a couple of days ahead never mind for a week. I'm not even sure if they're taken from latest ECM runs or what. I think that must of been on the back of last nights EC run...I wouldn't have too much faith in what they're saying in the national news.

Difficult to guess what's going to come from 144z to 168z etc...depends what's creating the greater forcing and on that timeframe obviously the GH and LP over the Norwegian Sea as opposed to the LP closer to the Azores...

If what slides?...that LP (near the north of the UK) has been modelled to stay in that position for the last couple of days or a col to form and has never been forecast to slide if that's what you're referring to.

Air looks to be fairly moderated if we do get anything from that direction...mid-month looks to be interesting.

ECM det seems to be struggling in the medium term...UK and Europe in a large col for a few days, I doubt that will be the case.

Oh dear! a few members now hanging their hats on the GFS pub run...it's like an addiction, their on a high but find it so hard to come down (Until 99% of the models says no).

Chortle! MOD thread...hot/warm spells no problems for the models, cold spells in the winter for models...ouch!! in an ever changing world some things never change.

ECM det's of the last day (3 runs) getting worse for coldies, good if you're after cold rain...

ECM det medium term outlook spells low pressure taking over from the south or south east...looks like a good ol' spell of cold rain.

4.8c for me please.

Whether the ECM det was on the warm side or not it's working on similar lines of making quite a bit of that Iberian Low influence and bringing milder air into the UK to this mornings (I think), a bit worrying if the op gets consistent.

Oh dear! the good ol' GFS is at it again...and sucking gullible inexperienced members in (and some usual ones).

If you follow the ECM det and nothing else you don't get strung along (in general)... and we know what the GFS is like at a certain range.

After a dry morning and about to get the mower out to cut the continued growing grass (and collect leaves) it's now grim and raining once more, feels colder out there though.

Latest ECM det sniffing out a pattern change after an unsettled spell with LP close to the UK for a time and yes it's the same old theme of going back to southerlies...only 1 run though but what's the bets as we approach the start of December (by that time) it's on the money.

My God it's grim out there, the BBC yesterday at lunchtime (Ben Rich I think) said Wednesday/Thursday was meant to have a 'drier window' - who are they kidding?

ECM det runs gave us a nugget of interest a day or so ago but has reverted to type and dropped the low heights through Europe with all the energy back in the Atlantic and now we have rain, rain and more rain...not overly mild though, I think I'll go back to bed.

At last the latest ECM det runs even if somewhat correct show a bit more interest with heights becoming lower though Europe helping to cool the continent down, downside it is looks pretty unsettled here (no surprise). This month looks like a re-run of September with a warm first half followed by a cooling down last 2 weeks or so.

I can visualise the way this is going to go...in another week's time wishing that block to the east/north east disappears, stuck with LP's close to the UK or stuck in yet another southerly - watch this space.

I really don't know mate, I did hear somebody mention that Greenland and Iceland had a pretty cold summer probably hence the gains maybe in Baffin Sea and northern areas of the Labrador Sea area? What I do know that this Summer and Autumn has seen little in the way of ridging in the North Atlantic northwards other than a brief spell late September with a trough over Scandinavia which has brought the only noteworthy cool spell this year, the high latitude blocking we experienced in summer was flat in nature (i.e west to east) and just acted as a block for very warm conditions from the south...without any ridging or strong GH heights it's just going to be an Atlantic dominated Winter, notice still without a strong jet stream few depressions are actually making landfall over Europe but just continue to sweep north easterly away from Blighty and Norway and then somewhat back to Greenland (probably feeding off the the only real cold about). Have to say seasonals were pointing towards pressure heights to the North west and more recently nearer to the UK and a drier start to Winter though early days looks a bit of a bust to me...

Looking at the latest ECM dets...probably as close as we'll get to an easterly all Winter, LP's relentless to the west and north west of the UK (as always).

same here...a 1cm dusting at best and was gone within a few hours...most of the snow fell in central southern areas and remember a Grand Tour program being quite snowy then where they have the airfield for racing at Wroughton near Swindon. Sine then absolutely nadda!

You didn't get any lying snow in December 2017? around mid-month I believe for a day and even that was only about a couple of cms!

What makes the best viewing, Box set of BBC Panorama or ECM dets of recent weeks?...I can hear the Dimbelby brothers voices beckoning me on Woeful model watching at the moment...

Another thriller of a day out there...cloud, light rain and fairly mild - yawn!