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Everything posted by Froze were the Days
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Froze were the Days replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Strikes me it's still an evolving picture (other than UKMO - steadfast)...Big bulbous vortex over Scandinavia with the coldest north easterlies well to the north and the Am airmass not digging southwards and the dastardly Azores low wanting to make it's presence felt. As Bluearmy said picking up on a theme at D8/D9 might not be good...lots of wriggle room to go pear shaped for the majority of the UK (gem) or snowy nirvana for the south/central parts (GFS). -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Froze were the Days replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
One thing I've noticed over the last day is how the vortex over Scandinavia has become one large bulbous organised structure rather than smaller cells...it seems to want to stay now well to the north (on GFS/ECM) and on this run pushing westwards which in my mind keeps the real cold air away...and opens the door further south for low pressure. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Froze were the Days replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If only that vortex over Scandi dropped 700/800 miles I'd be proper happy, just feel it's a tad to the north, still time for things to change at that range. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Froze were the Days replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Old school synoptics right there!...just wish ECM would throw a few out at D10. A more positive model viewing day then yesterday. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Froze were the Days replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Closer to slider territory I would think...getting colder. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Froze were the Days replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
All the action on the EC run is all to the north...improvements in the closer term at 144z but still behind GEM and UKMO at 168. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Froze were the Days replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looks like the HP is slipping southwards by 168z...actually thought it would be better after the improvement at 144. Still an improvement on the 0z run so a step back to GEM/UKMO. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Froze were the Days replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
One of those ultra marathons I reckon - I'll be surprised if the ECM changes much... -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Froze were the Days replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Always the GFS with the eye candy (which has come back again after dropping the decent runs) and ECM being the grinch...I know what model I'd bet on at the moment, haven't looked at UKMO 168 any good? -
Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
Froze were the Days replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
What a dreadful Winter it's been to now, dull, rain (flooding) occasionally windy and continually mild. Today maxed out at 7c which is near normal for the time of year, it's been the coldest day here since 7th December which says it all!...has to be the worst pre-Xmas, Xmas period to New Year and into the New Year weather I can remember in my life time. The last El-Nino Winter 2013-14 was also dreadful... Lets hope for something drier and hopefully whiter as no mentionable snow has fallen in my back yard in a January since 2013. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Froze were the Days replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
All guess work! I think I might have overplayed that... -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Froze were the Days replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
In other words don't believe anything GFS shows at a certain range!...no point of looking at it past 240z. As I've mentioned before how little drama there'd be if you only followed the ECM and UKMO most winters but then again I know a number of posters get a buzz out of the chase whatever the outcome even though the success rate must probably be at 20/25% in such scenarios. Still all to play for and I for one would be surprised to see the Atlantic back in the next 2 weeks or so but without trying to sound like the new Ian Brown we are now in the 'large teapot so who knows!. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Froze were the Days replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I've been saying it for years...in possible northern blocking scenario's it goes from one extreme (47/63 white out det runs) to completely backing down, at a certain range it's useless only occasionally does it pick out trends. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Froze were the Days replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
As long as it's not BFTP (Fred saying it)...hang on, God dam it!.