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Froze were the Days

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  • Gender
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  • Location
    Swaffham, Norfolk (4 bedroom house, detached) - wintering in Burnham
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    James Bond, Owls, Lexus and Range Rover, North Norfolk Digital Radio (North Norfolk's best music mix), quality chat.
  • Weather Preferences
    30 Degrees of pure British Celsius

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  1. SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

    UKMO 144 to 168z moves that low pressure very little north eastwards and makes it quite a small tight feature, where it goes after that is another thing. I'm going to ignore the GFS output and just follow ecm/ukmo and see if they sing from the same hymn sheet.
  2. SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

    I remember back in January 1985 and that cold spell and I think it was around 9/10th, an Atlantic depression was forecast to bump into a cold air mass over the UK from the west south west and dump 6 inches or so over the south and this was only 24 hours before the event. Of course the channel Isles was only effected and the MetO left with egg on their face - so a very hard forecast to make currently what will happen end of next week, maybe a 24 hours or less before we know will happen.
  3. So why do we keep getting op runs showing different...a bit worrying it keeps consistently blowing up that Iberian low. Perhaps we should all just ignore it and follow the ECM and UKMO instead!
  4. As I said compare it to the Fax 120 and the feature is far bigger on the GFS with winds ahead of it backing to the south east near the south coast at that point, where as the Fax shows the feature somewhat flatter and smaller.
  5. SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

    Turning to rain though - GFS 18z moves that feature somewhat north and sits over the country mixing the cold uppers out in our part of the world, it really needs to be south and east (on the near continent) like the GEFS/ECM means show...
  6. But the means of ECM and GEFS have the low further south and east...but the GFS ops keep doing the same thing
  7. It certainly blows up the feature as it moves towards the south coast unlike ECM and the mean runs (both by GFS and ECM) to be some what further south east than the op.
  8. GFS 18z already very progressive in relation to the above fax 120 - has the Iberian low as a bigger feature with winds backing SE towards southern England rather than a flatter version as shown here.
  9. Looks like UKMO as man with beard says takes more of the GFS approach (surely GFS can't be the leader in this)?, personally would like to see it flatter than that and a hundred or so miles further south to keep the cold locked in...but maybe that's more of me talking about my location.
  10. SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

    Hi there Steve, what do you make of the UKMO? - seems slow to shift the Scandinavian High west to 'merge' with the Greenland GP and as a consequence we seem to end up with more of a ESE flow just after mid-week and does that open us up to more of a quicker breakdown?...disappointed when I saw that this morning.
  11. A few perbs in there like the ECM 12z op run - P9, 10, 17, 18, 20 etc...we're looking for that Iberian low to become 'flatter' and move somewhat east.
  12. Difficult to see how that compares with the other models at 168 - ECM 12z had the Iberian low a bit flatter and with a bit more troughing to the east at that time span...
  13. give me strength...hope it's not going to be like this for the next 40 odd minutes if the GFS descends into one.
  14. SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

    What do you think of the chances of that 12z GFS coming to fruition (shortwave in the North sea) cutting the real cold off?
  15. Control on the GFS 18z more in line with ECM op run at 240
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