Relativistic

An interesting stat. The 31st of July 2015 saw the 5th coldest July minimum on record: 5.4C. Less than a year later, the 20th of July 2016 saw the warmest July minimum on record: 19.4C.

This has to be the best post ever. Thanks for taking the time to write such long and informative posts.

The smell is called petrichor if you wish to learn more about it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrichor?wprov=sfla1

I arrived in Iceland last night. Could make out the landscape well after midnight last night even with thick cloud cover. The amazing thing was that when I left Heathrow at around 10pm, the Sun had set. Travelling north-west to Iceland, and combined with altitude, I watched the Sun rise again about 90 minutes later. On our descent it quickly set again. Really cool stuff.

According to the CET values, maxima and minima have been above average for the last three months: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_max.html http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_min.html

It almost certainly will, as did June. The year as a whole is hitherto well above average.

I'm not old enough to remember the ultra-hot spells of days gone by, such as the Augusts of 1995 and 1997 (I turn 20 this month so I do have some vague memories of August 2003 and July 2006), and so, to me, the Summers of recent years feel very normal. So I'm simply not as accustomed to or as welcoming of hot spells when they do come. As a weather enthusiast, I am a fan of extremes, but heat is my least favourite of those extremes. For this reason, Summer 2016 has been a good one for me. Not only have I seen the dullest June on record (to have almost everyday in June totally overcast from start to finish was very bizarre), but temperatures have mostly been comfortable during the day and at night when sleeping, with a refreshing breeze to go with it. I.e. no prolonged hot spells. I fully sympathise with Markyo, London can regularly be 2-3C warmer than here in Chelmsford (from personal experience), presumably because of the UHI. I certainly wouldn't want to live there, especially during the hot spells.

I will be looking forward to my trip to Iceland this coming week. Can't wait for a break from the heat, should be looking at 14C-17C maxima which is much more up my street.

* I suspect this is a typographical error but this should be 1997.

13.7C.

Heathrow at 26.9C, pretty hot given that it's only 10am!

An extraordinary month was July 1948. 1st-15th: 13.2C (5th coldest such period) 16th-31st: 18.2C (19th warmest such period) The three day spell that commenced on the 28th is particularly eye-catching, with a mean of 24.0(0)C. In July, only 1976 could better it: 2nd-4th was 24.0(3)C; 3rd-5th was 24.4C. (The 1st-3rd August 1995 was also warmer, at 24.3C. No other three day period in August was >24C.)

I'd love to have experienced July 1816. The coldest July on record, with a CET of just 13.4C, recorded, rather staggeringly, just two days with CET values of 15C and above (20th and 21st, recording 18.5C and 15.2C respectively). A few more statistics: The first half (defined as 1st-15th) recorded a CET of 13.3C, making it the 11th coldest such period on record. The second half (defined as 16th-31st) recorded a CET of 13.5C, making it the 3rd coldest such period on record. Had it not been for the 18.5C on the 20th, this period would have been the coldest on record. The coldest 7-day period in July 1816 was the period 1st-7th, which recorded 12.9C. This is some way off the record for the coldest ever 7-day period recorded in July, which was the period 1st-7th in 1907, at 11.6C. July 1907 however warmed up later on, and ended up with a final CET of 14.1C. It was 1816's persistence of well below average temperatures that makes it stand out. Many of the July months that had very cold first halves dropped down the rankings for cold second halves. 1948 was an extreme example (13.2C first half, 18.2C second half).

This is so true. I do spare some sympathy for those up north, some people find it quite testing when the Summer months don't deliver what is expected, especially Summer SAD sufferers. However, as 40*C has alluded to, the northern parts of the UK and southern England are totally different in spells like this, with the latter more often dryer and warmer. Southerners have much less of a reason to moan IMO, the north has it worse.

Extent is running very close to the 2000s average currently, and above the 1980s and 1990s averages. Select "Antarctic" in the region selector on the following web page: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

The similarities there are remarkable! Starting to think there is a 150 year periodicity here. Summer 1676 was also one of the hottest on record. Perhaps Summer 2126 will give Summer lovers something to cheer about.

I am certainly not hating the weather at the moment. Here it is 22C and breezy with scattered clouds. To describe this as "filth" would be a bit of a stretch. And as you're only 50 miles away as the crow flies from Chelmsford, surely things can't be too different down in Surrey? Perhaps I am wrong. I quoted 1725 and 1912 to exemplify just how bad our Summers can be, and to show just how pathetic Summer 2016 is in comparison. The point being that no matter how much people are loathing the current Summer weather, things could be a lot worse.

I'm rather enjoying this weather. Never feeling too warm, with a refreshing breeze keeping things very comfortable. Not raining at all much either. To be honest, I think people need to put things into perspective. There were FAR worse Summers in centuries gone by. We struggle these days to achieve sub-15C months in July and August. We haven't even come close in recent years to the likes of August 1912 (a sub-13C CET August and the wettest ever for England and Wales on the EWP). Granted we have had some very wet Summer months, but temperatures are far from disastrous; the coldest Summer since 2000 (Summer 2011) doesn't even make the top 100 coldest in recorded history. I'll finish with another example: Summer 1725 June CET: 12.2C July CET: 13.8C August CET: 13.3C If you're a Summer lover, then that is what you call a disastrous Summer. (Edit: If you're unfamiliar with the CET figures for this Summer, June recorded 15.2C, and July is currently running at 15.8C.)

I won the seasonal competition in Spring 2013 going on hunches alone. Nowadays I tend to do really badly because I always go with my heart and punt for really low CET values (I'm normally in the lowest 5 guesses).

I very much agree with you, just thought it was a contrast worth pointing out!

July 1st 2015, 8am: cloudless blue skies, 22C and climbing fast. July 1st 2016, 8am: totally overcast and raining, 15C and going nowhere.

I looked at the entire dataset up to the end of 2015, and found that Junes that occur in years ending in 6 are indeed more likely to be warm ones. Mean for June, years ending in 0: 14.3 Ending in 1: 14.2 Ending in 2: 14.3 Ending in 3: 14.3 Ending in 4: 14.2 Ending in 5: 14.1 Ending in 6: 14.8 Ending in 7: 14.3 Ending in 8: 14.5 Ending in 9: 14.2 Years ending in 6 do stand out. I suppose the likes of 1846, 1976, etc. are helping to pull this figure up. Also of interest: Februaries ending in 5 also stand out, with a mean of 3.2C. The next lowest are Februaries ending in 0 or 1, both with means of 3.8C. Only Januaries ending in 0 or 9 averaged <3C (means of 2.8C and 2.9C respectively). Only Septembers ending in 2 or 3 averaged <13C (both 12.9C). Only Octobers ending in 1 averaged >=10C (10.2C). The last two such Octobers, October 2001 (13.3C) and October 2011 (12.6C) lift this figure up by about 0.2C however.

Let's go for 14.7C.

An interesting article fom the BBC this morning. Essentially, experts at the University of Reading have developed a model based on the distribution of melt ponds in the Arctic which tries to predict the sea ice minimum come September. The model predicted the minima in 2014 and 2015 to a good degree of accuracy, and it is not predicting a record low this year. Melt ponds suggest no Arctic sea-ice record this year - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-36560548

Most of the country is running above average at the moment for June, in fact the CET is nearly 2C above the 61-90 average. It's currently looking very possible that this anomaly will persist through to month's end. So the above anomaly chart may actually be implying conditions close to average for July and August.