Relativistic

We managed sunshine almost all day today despite the standard MO forecast of overcast skies throughout. The rest of the week is set to be completely overcast but I bet it'll be largely sunny.

raz.org.rain It's always been a theoretical possibility. The April record of 29.4°C in 1949 was set midway through the month, and 30°C may've been breached in April 1775 if the CET records are to be trusted. The only thing that's changed is how likely it is.

emmett garland May 2021 can't have looked much different. One of the coldest April-May combos in the past century. Unless the warm March put 2021 ahead slightly.

B87 Spring 2013 wasn't fully leafed out until some point in June in the south-east.

BlueSkies_do_I_see 2018 probably did in mid-April

What's the earliest date the 20°C line's reached our shores? Anyone know?

CryoraptorA303 Yes, I'm aware it's speculative, and so is she (hence my wording). I haven't read the book but she acknowledged this in a recent interview. You've convinced me against the idea.

CryoraptorA303 Theoretical physicist Lisa Randall speculates that fluctuations in local dark-matter density may have been responsible for disturbing the Oort cloud in the way you suggest. She has a book called Dark Matter and the Dinosaurs where she gives more details.

First 12°C year anyone?

Don Whilst these SSTs persist it seems guaranteed that the CET will be comfortably above the 61-90 average...

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/meantemp_monthly_totals.txt https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/meantemp_ranked_monthly.txt March confirmed at 8.1°C. Ranked 10th warmest.

WYorksWeather Not sure about your comment re April frosts. Think frosts in April and May have been less affected than at other times of year. April 2021 was the frostiest on record. Apologies -- just read the above posts!

Weather history pointed out in 2016 that El Nino years often feature April cold shots. Such an event did of course transpire in 2016 and led to a chilly CET of 7.5C -- colder than February of this year.

The first year that came to my mind was 2013 (then in Essex). Frequent snowfalls and cold temperatures from January into April. April and May were very changeable spring months and I recall some exceptional convective cloudscapes. Can't remember much of June. July and August were a corking core summer period. Think the rest of the year was okay; November was chilly. A similar year was 2018 (then in Birmingham). Drifting snow and bitterly cold during late February/early March and of course later in March too. April started off exceptionally dull but later brought sunshine and temperatures well into the 20s. May was interesting as I witnessed flash-flooding for the first time after a two-hour thunderstorm. The summer was exceptional. Can't remember the rest of the year too well. I guess 2010 as well though my memory isn't as good on this one.

I would guess that that's never happened. Am sure someone will have some stats on this.

Oh how depressing.

Oh for goodness' sake, not this again

The PIT Chaos is a property of physical systems; the weather will always be chaotic. Earthshine That's interesting about kinetic energy dropping away given that they've been trained on datasets that do conserve energy. One would expect fluctuations but a specific bias is somewhat surprising. Good luck with the grant application!

@Derecho I see this as an amazing opportunity to learn. These AI models have developed a strong intuition for weather forecasting and delving under the blackbox to see how they're able to pick out the right patterns should yield all sorts of insights. Something to embrace IMO. Edit: Worth adding that this applies to any field where AIs are outperforming previous technologies.

@Weather-history I can still see it (I take it you're referring to the very first post?) The December 2010 spells are missing from the list just posted.

The recent spell wasn't far off. 15th of Jan: 0.1°C 16th: 0.3°C 17th: -0.5°C 18th: -2.0°C 19th: 0.1°C A bit of snow on the ground and we might've done it.

Yep. Everything on Earth and in its atmosphere is just some ultra-complex looping circuit of nonequilibrium currents, in which any subcircuit drives, and is driven by, its environment. So 'driver' is a very broad term indeed

Know what the Welsh low is for the season?

I'm only seeing data for the 1st and 2nd which would explain why it's been stuck on 8.2°C. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/cet_mean_2024.txt

I agree with you, believe me. I think the MOD thread is laughable at times and that people make the same mistakes over and over is very stupid, frankly. The difference is, though, that this time there's 20 years or more of teleconnective science which is pointing towards something. This isn't just the usual 'there's something showing at day 12 despite the fact that most large-scale drivers aren't indicative of such', and to completely dismiss the current situation is to ignore the incredibly hard work of some of the world's most knowledgeable and respected meteorologists. I'm not saying a cold spell is nailed on, but I think the current negativity from a few is unwarranted and too hasty a dismissal of the current known science.