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Everything posted by Relativistic
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UK Rain Is There Any Sign Of It Ending?
Relativistic replied to Fen Wolf's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
We managed sunshine almost all day today despite the standard MO forecast of overcast skies throughout. The rest of the week is set to be completely overcast but I bet it'll be largely sunny. -
raz.org.rain It's always been a theoretical possibility. The April record of 29.4°C in 1949 was set midway through the month, and 30°C may've been breached in April 1775 if the CET records are to be trusted. The only thing that's changed is how likely it is.
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emmett garland May 2021 can't have looked much different. One of the coldest April-May combos in the past century. Unless the warm March put 2021 ahead slightly.
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B87 Spring 2013 wasn't fully leafed out until some point in June in the south-east.
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April 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests
Relativistic replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
What's the earliest date the 20°C line's reached our shores? Anyone know? -
First 12°C year anyone?
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March 2024 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
Relativistic replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Don Whilst these SSTs persist it seems guaranteed that the CET will be comfortably above the 61-90 average... -
March 2024 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
Relativistic replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/meantemp_monthly_totals.txt https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/meantemp_ranked_monthly.txt March confirmed at 8.1°C. Ranked 10th warmest. -
April 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests
Relativistic replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
WYorksWeather Not sure about your comment re April frosts. Think frosts in April and May have been less affected than at other times of year. April 2021 was the frostiest on record. Apologies -- just read the above posts! -
April 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests
Relativistic replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Weather history pointed out in 2016 that El Nino years often feature April cold shots. Such an event did of course transpire in 2016 and led to a chilly CET of 7.5C -- colder than February of this year. -
Pick your Groundhog year of weather to relive
Relativistic replied to BlueSkies_do_I_see's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
The first year that came to my mind was 2013 (then in Essex). Frequent snowfalls and cold temperatures from January into April. April and May were very changeable spring months and I recall some exceptional convective cloudscapes. Can't remember much of June. July and August were a corking core summer period. Think the rest of the year was okay; November was chilly. A similar year was 2018 (then in Birmingham). Drifting snow and bitterly cold during late February/early March and of course later in March too. April started off exceptionally dull but later brought sunshine and temperatures well into the 20s. May was interesting as I witnessed flash-flooding for the first time after a two-hour thunderstorm. The summer was exceptional. Can't remember the rest of the year too well. I guess 2010 as well though my memory isn't as good on this one. -
I would guess that that's never happened. Am sure someone will have some stats on this.
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February 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests
Relativistic replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Oh how depressing. -
Mild September = A Mild Winter?
Relativistic replied to North-Easterly Blast's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Oh for goodness' sake, not this again -
AI set to revolutionise weather forecasting?
Relativistic replied to Derecho's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The PIT Chaos is a property of physical systems; the weather will always be chaotic. Earthshine That's interesting about kinetic energy dropping away given that they've been trained on datasets that do conserve energy. One would expect fluctuations but a specific bias is somewhat surprising. Good luck with the grant application! -
AI set to revolutionise weather forecasting?
Relativistic replied to Derecho's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
@Derecho I see this as an amazing opportunity to learn. These AI models have developed a strong intuition for weather forecasting and delving under the blackbox to see how they're able to pick out the right patterns should yield all sorts of insights. Something to embrace IMO. Edit: Worth adding that this applies to any field where AIs are outperforming previous technologies. -
Yep. Everything on Earth and in its atmosphere is just some ultra-complex looping circuit of nonequilibrium currents, in which any subcircuit drives, and is driven by, its environment. So 'driver' is a very broad term indeed
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Minimum Temperature Watch 2023-2024 season
Relativistic replied to damianslaw's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Know what the Welsh low is for the season? -
January 2024 CET and E.W.P. forecast contests
Relativistic replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I'm only seeing data for the 1st and 2nd which would explain why it's been stuck on 8.2°C. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/cet_mean_2024.txt -
Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
Relativistic replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I agree with you, believe me. I think the MOD thread is laughable at times and that people make the same mistakes over and over is very stupid, frankly. The difference is, though, that this time there's 20 years or more of teleconnective science which is pointing towards something. This isn't just the usual 'there's something showing at day 12 despite the fact that most large-scale drivers aren't indicative of such', and to completely dismiss the current situation is to ignore the incredibly hard work of some of the world's most knowledgeable and respected meteorologists. I'm not saying a cold spell is nailed on, but I think the current negativity from a few is unwarranted and too hasty a dismissal of the current known science.