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About Relativistic

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    Give me snow

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    Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Interests
    Ph.D physics student. Other interests include mathematics, meteorology, programming, juggling, unicycling, the outdoors, and just learning stuff!
  • Weather Preferences
    Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.

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  1. Not displeased with my forecast at all - 17.3C with a hot spell some time after the 20th... and yet I only managed 18th!
  2. Potentially another short, sharp hot spell on the way, but otherwise nothing special. I'll go for 14.7C.
  3. Indeed, this is always going to be a problem. My personal opinion is that if we have very little still to gain if we continue down the brute-force DE route (Lyapunov exponents will continue to screw us over, no matter how precise our initial conditions are). A different (or perhaps combined) approach involving machine learning is an alternative we should explore, such that the computers gain some kind of "intuition" for how teleconnections interact with each other and affect local weather further down the line (much like how some of the knowledgeable folk on here are able to give a pretty good stab at a Summer or Winter forecast, only with much more "thinking" power). I suspect this approach is already being dabbled with.
  4. Beat me to it! Was going to mention both of these. Worth mentioning that the 3rd June 1947 holds the record for the hottest recorded daily CET in June. Quite something when you consider that June is a month that warms as it progresses. Not even 1976 had an answer! The April record is actually 29.4C set in 1949. Made remarkable because it was set on the 16th and not at the backend of the month.
  5. A brief glance at the annual data (lower graphs on the right) seems to suggest that the opposite is true, i.e. maxima are increasing more rapidly than minima. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_max.html https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_min.html Will do some quantitative analysis if I can find the time.
  6. I'm also thinking this; I said mid-month for a plume in my previous post, but now I'm thinking sometime around or just after the 20th.
  7. I'll go for 17.3C with at least one further plume (perhaps around mid-month). Let's see if we can get 34C+ temperatures in all three Summer months - that would be quite something.
  8. Wow, wonder when that last happened! Thanks for posting
  9. By no means an expert, but I'm struggling to convince myself that the open soil wouldn't be influencing the temperature (at least to some extent).
  10. Re cloud: we're surrounded by water - doesn't matter if you have perfect synoptics because moisture is never far away. When temperatures climb into the mid-30s the "threat" of the development of cloudcover will always be there. Perhaps what we've learnt from this is that 40C is far less achievable than many thought.
  11. Provisional reading for the 23rd is 22.8C, so that's one out of four (subject to corrections).
  12. Might be worth looking at how many times each of Heathrow and Northolt have recorded the highest temperatures on Summer days (going back to when the stations were established) so as to determine whether the frequency with which this happens has increased over time. Of course, other factors would have to be accounted for (e.g. number of stations present at each time). I would look into it myself but have no idea where to find such data!
  13. Aye, that's true in the wider context. But when looking at individual "ultra-high" readings at such locations folk will always be curious as to how much was due to the local climate (which may be influenced by infrastructure) and how much reflects the current large-scale climatic state. Ergo discussion (... and, for some, bickering!).
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