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About Relativistic

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    Give me snow

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    Currently Chelmsford (previously Birmingham; soon to be Edinburgh)
  • Interests
    Ph.D physics student. Other interests include mathematics, meteorology, programming, juggling, unicycling, the outdoors, and just learning stuff!
  • Weather Preferences
    Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.

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  1. Not necessarily, as it depends on where the cold air is being sourced from. Given some of the unprecedented temperature anomalies we've seen over the Arctic in recent years then perhaps cold spells from direct northerlies will be far less potent than they used to be, in which case "0.8°C less severe" may be an underestimate. However, we have seen some truly brutal cold-pooling over Siberia in recent years, which many believe could be a consequence of a warm Arctic (often referred to as "warm Arctic, cold continents"). So it may in fact be the case that we see Siberian-sourced cold spells increase in severity. The remarkably cold weather we witnessed in late February and early March of this year (upper-air temperatures briefly touching -17°C; you'd probably have to go back to 1987 to beat that!) perhaps demonstrates this. And what of cold sea-surface temperatures in the north Atlantic due to a weakening AMOC? If we see cooling in the right regions then maybe this could, to an extent, negate the effects of warmer Arctic air because the water over which the air is travelling becomes colder and hence we see less modulation? The same goes for cold-and-snow events off the back of Winter depressions: perhaps marginal events see more snow whereas previously we may have just had cold rain?
  2. Summer 1976 is currently top at 23.47C. A ranked list can be found here: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/ssn_HadCET_max_sort.txt
  3. A lot of people in this country struggle to get a tan if they go outside; they just burn instead. Many people are wary of their health and as such will stay inside when necessary.
  4. With Summer 2018 looking to finish above 17°C, I thought I'd look at how it so far compares with all other 17°C-and-over Summers (nine in total) in terms of the numbers of "hot days". I've plotted the number of daily means above or equal to each of 20°C, 21°C, 22°C, 23°C, and 24°C in each of these Summers alongside the current corresponding figures for Summer 2018 (August figures are provisional). Each of the current top nine are shown in order of lowest rank to highest rank from left to right, followed by 2018. Apologies about the vertical axis labels which should read "above or equal to" instead of just "above". The number of 20°C+ days shows a fairly even spread, with 1995 the only one to really buck the trend at a whopping 26. As very hot Summers go, 2018 seems pretty normal in this respect, with 15. Going up to 21°C+ days, 2018 drops down very quickly to just three! The Summers of 1976 and 1995 dominate with 14 and 15 respectively, while 1826, with five days, and 1846, with six days, are the next lowest after 2018. Going up again to 22°C+ days, 1976 destroys all competition with 12 days. The Summers of 1826, 1846, and 2018 are the poorest once more with one, one, and two days respectively. The only current top-five Summer to not record any 23°C+ days was 1826, while 1947 also nicked one. Three of the top five, 1976, 1995, and 2006, recorded 24°C+ days. So in this respect it seems that 2018 is really quite different from more recent very hot Summers; it fits in much better with those of the 1800s, where the heat was much more consistent, but never quite achieving any utterly extraordinary spikes like those of early July 1976 or early August 1995.
  5. Indeed, I was under the impression that it was an evolutionary adaptation: those with paler skin absorb more UV light leading to greater vitamin D production. Which, of course, makes perfect sense given average UV levels in the UK relative to other European countries.
  6. Below I've listed all the days of the top nine Summers (all those of 17.00°C and above) that have exceeded 2018's highest daily mean of 22.5°C on the 27thJuly. 1826 (rank = 2) 27th June (22.8°C) 1846 (rank = 6) None, highest was 22nd June 1846 (22.0°C) 1933 (rank = 9) None, highest was 4th August 1933 (22.2°C) 1947 (rank = 8 ) 3rd June 1947 (23.0°C) 1976 (rank = 1) 28th June 1976 (22.6°C) 1st-7th July 1976 (22.9°C, 22.8°C, 24.6°C, 24.7°C, 23.9°C, 23.3°C, 22.6°C); part of a 12-day run from 26th June – 7th July above 22°C 1983 (rank = 7) 12th, 13th July 1983 (22.6°C, 22.7°C) 1995 (rank = 3) 31st July – 3rd August 1995 (23.4°C, 24.9°C, 24.6°C, 23.4°C) 2003 (rank = 4) 15th, 16th July 2003 (22.6°C, 22.7°C) 5th August 2003 (23.1°C) 9th August 2003 (23.9°C) 2006 (rank = 5) 2nd July 2006 (22.7°C) 19th, 20th July 2006 (24.5°C, 22.7°C) 25th, 26th July 2006 (22.7°C, 23.2°C)
  7. My memory for weather only really goes back to December 2010, so this is my list based on all months since then. January 2013: Good cold and snowy spell in the middle of the month. February 2012: Extremely varied, with bitter easterlies and snow in the first half to warmth and sunshine in the second. March 2013/2018: The former was snowy and saw some exceptionally cold maxima late on in the month; the latter saw two very extreme cold snaps with some superb drifting snow. April 2012: Perhaps the most sunshine-and-showers month I can remember, with some beautiful convective cloudscapes producing plenty of showery rain and hail. May 2012: Another varied month, with very cool but convective weather in the opening two thirds, followed up by a remarkable heatwave. June 2016: Really struggled with June, but I'll go with 2016 because of how remarkably cloudy it was. July 2014/2015: The former was a superbly stormy month, with many nights of intense thunderstorms; the latter was extremely varied with record-breaking heat in the opening days and a run of exceptionally cool weather to close the month. August: Don't know! September: Don't know! October 2012/2015: The former was cool, and featured the only falling snow I've witnessed in October; the latter, barring a few days at the end, was cool, crisp, and seasonal. November 2016: A cool, crisp month, with a wintry feel owing to its plentiful frosty mornings (sadly no snow). December 2010: Two fantastic snowy spells; deepest level snow I've ever seen; coldest temperature IMBY; consistently below freezing. Need I say more? Tally per year: 2010: 1 2011: 0 2012: 4 2013: 2 2014: 1 2015: 2 2016: 2 2017: 0 2018: 1
  8. Relativistic

    Worst summer of the 1980s?

    I don't disagree with anything you've said, but I think you've missed my point somewhat. Apologies for not making myself clear. My point was about people's perceptions. Someone on here commented that people nowadays would really have struggled in the aforementioned 1980s Summers given that the overall temperatures were that much lower. My point about the short strings of days that skewed the overall figures in the cases I mentioned was that the monthly statistics are not representative of people's perceptions of how the months actually were. When most people judge a particular month or season they will do so based on the dominant theme, and not on the few oddball days that were different. Based on CET figures, June 1985, for example, was cool from start to finish. But the actual daily means were comparable to those of June 2012, barring the hotter days that the latter saw towards the end. Thus, when people compare the two months, their perceptions of temperature may well be very similar, despite the disparity in the monthly figures. Don't get me wrong, in most scenarios I'd quote the monthly figures. But the comparisons that people are making on here seem largely to be based on their subjective experiences.
  9. Relativistic

    Worst summer of the 1980s?

    Although monthly statistics don’t reflect it, people shouldn’t underestimate how cool some of the Summer months from recent years have been. June 2012, for example, was for the most part very cool, but a hotter spell at the end of the month was enough to drag the monthly figure from well below average to below average. The CET to the 24th was just 12.7°C; had the weather not been as forgiving in the final few days then a sub-13°C finish (like 1985 and 1987, the two coolest of their decade) would have been likely, which would have put it in the top 30 coolest in 360 years of records. In terms of maxima, which is what many people’s subjective experiences of Summer temperatures are based on, June 2012 (17.4°C) really wasn’t that dissimilar to the Junes of 1985 and 1987 (16.5°C and 16.8°C, respectively). July 2012 also suffered a similar fate when a short string of hot days at the end of the month skewed the monthly figures. For the most part, this month was also very cool, with sub-14°C CET daily means occurring frequently throughout. Then the rainfall figures top the 1980s Summers quite convincingly. The Summer EWP figures for England & Wales place 2012 as the fourth wettest Summer in 252 years of records (375.0mm), while 2007 was the twelfth wettest (343.5mm). Summer 1985 was the wettest of the 1980s at 36th wettest (293.0mm). In particular, the Junes of 2007 and 2012 can also respectively boast being the fourth wettest and outright wettest on record. Onto another point, is record-breakingly cool weather still possible in the Summer months? The last record low CET daily mean that occurred in Summer was 25 years ago (10th July 1993). Breaking daily records may be tough, but I believe exceptionally cool weather is still possible. July 2015 managed just that: owing to north-westerlies off a very cold north Atlantic, the mean CET for the final week was just 13.6°C (eight-coldest for this period out of 247 years). That was enough to drag that month down to slightly below average despite the exceptional heat at its beginning. With the potential for a very cold north Atlantic to persist in the years to come (due to a weakening AMOC), then perhaps spells like that of the end of July 2015 could become a little more common?
  10. Indeed, this was something I noted too. This case is more interesting because all four examples seem to have occurred just before solar minimum ('83 less so, but still well on its way). Unfortunately, the occurrence of these "super-hot" months ceases if you try to trace the pattern back further. You can find August 1947 (18.6°C) if you go back 3*12=36 years, but this occurred around solar maximum.
  11. Regarding Hale cycles, some notably hot Summers seem to be separated by ~22 years. For all the Summers mentioned I've included their CETs and CET ranks in brackets. 1826 (17.60°C, 2) +20 years --> 1846 (17.10°C, 6) (there were two shorter-than-normal solar cycles here) +22 years --> 1868 (16.87°C, 14) 1911 (16.97°C, 10) +22 years --> 1933 (17.00°C, 9) +22 years --> 1955 (16.53°C, joint-26th) +21 years --> 1976 (17.77°C, 1) 1995 (17.37°C, 3) +23 years --> 2018 (??, August only requires a CET of 15.8°C to make the top 10) I'm not sure I'm entirely convinced by this because the positions in the solar cycles seems to vary somewhat, but interesting nonetheless. Who knows, perhaps Summer 2040 will be a scorcher!
  12. Yesterday's value of 14.0°C gives the opening 10 days of the month a mean of 18.5°C. We've now dropped out of the top 10, currently sitting in joint-14th place with 1937.
  13. You can always use the min. and max. CET data sets, to be found here: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/download.html Your point about June 1975 is true; in terms of maxima it did very well (joint-20th warmest out of 141), but minima were relatively low (joint-35th coolest out of 141). The mean for June 1983 it turns out was actually pulled up by higher minima (joint-42nd highest) which had to make up for, overall, underwhelming maxima (joint-59th coolest). June 1995 was slightly worse than average in both regards (joint-64th coolest for minima and joint-62nd coolest for maxima).
  14. Yesterday's provisional mean is 15.8°C. Taking all the provisional daily means for August as correct that would put our run of daily means at or above 16°C at 45 days, edging 1783's record (highlighted in the July thread) of 44 days. The daily mean for the 8th is currently down as 16.6°C, so it's still possible that we only equal the 1783 record in the event that this particular date takes a large downward hit come month's end.
  15. Only possible candidates are July 1983, August 1995, and July 2006. July 1983 failed on the first day, with a mean of 13.7°C. August 1995 bottomed out at 19.2°C on the final day. July 2006 bottomed out at 18.3°C on the 15th. The year 1794 also showed up in a few places. That year had a 33-day period where all daily means exceeded or equalled 16°C, an overall mean up to the end of July of 10.19°C (precisely the same as 2018), and similar June and July means to 2018 (15.7°C and 18.1°C, respectively).