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Everything posted by Sainsbo

  1. If the 03z UKV verifies around the Reading area then the July record of 35.3 is likely to go on Thursday, maybe even the all time record of 36.4C. Only 18C currently - Think I better try and cool the house down whilst I still can!
  2. Swindon has been hammered over the past few hours and no sign of it letting up just yet. Already ~15cm of snow with potentially another couple to go on top of that. Not bad, given a Met Office yellow warning for 1-3cm with 5-10cm locally on higher ground. ?
  3. Unless the precip dies out as it goes inland it looks like we could get a good few cm's in Reading this evening. Very light snow here at the moment, as it has been all afternoon.
  4. Most of the models had the swing north happening sometime between 1500 and 1600, though given the eastward extent of the precip compared to some of the models it would probably need to make the turn slightly earlier if the negligible snow depths are to verify. Next hour should tell us a lot!
  5. Even the AROME with it's very high resolution is doing a poor job at representing areas of precip compared to what we can see on the radar. Models are now pretty useless, just need to watch and see if the precip starts moving more northerly as modelled, or if it continues to have an eastwards component for a little while longer.
  6. Looks like the amber warning zone has been moved further west if anything Not necessarily a downgrade, just an increase in certainty regarding that heaviest snowfall. I'm sure a few could still get lucky throughout the day and evening, even if the worst of it will almost certainly be in the west.
  7. ARPEGE takes heavier snowfall much further east on the 18z. A ridiculous amount of uncertainty given we're at 24 hours. It's going to come down to radar watching and now casting as usual it seems.
  8. 18z HIRLAM looks to have corrected westwards, still somewhat better for the home counties than the WRF but a downgrade in terms of snow potential for sure.
  9. ARPEGE is also pretty similar to the HIRLAM for the home counties. I'm sure MetO will review their warnings for the event tonight/tomorrow morning, will be interesting to see if there's any extension of the amber warning eastwards.
  10. I guess the BBC/MetO aren't too concerned with the ARPEGE and HIRLAM showing heavy precip moving further east given the 2-5cm on the graphic. Either way a great forecast and looks like some people will be very happy come Friday morning. It's interesting to note the discrepancies though:
  11. Looks like the HIRLAM and ARPEGE (12z and 00z respectively) are keen to give a good covering for central southern areas along with areas further SW, whereas the GFS/NMM and ICON (12z's) aren't interested at all. We're only 30 hours away and the snow depth ranges for central south are anywhere from about 1 to 15cm! Looks like the ARPEGE 12z is sticking to it's guns. Will be interesting to see when it gets in range of the AROME.
  12. Typically Reading is one of the only places outside the MetO's warning for snow today and it looks like we'll be too far east to see anything notable on Thursday/Friday Guess I'll have to be content with the odd flake blowing in the wind
  13. I feel like we're giving a little bit too much attention to the 850hPa temperatures for the event on Friday. The colder uppers seem to be easily pushed aside by the low, but with 4-5 days of temperatures struggling to get above freezing and harsh night time frosts the boundary layer is going to be extremely cold. Whilst the 850hPa temps could possibly become "mild" in comparison to what we will experience this week, the warmer air associated with the low will probably be pushed aloft to an extent with the surface temperature staying around or below freezing. If not snow, counties in the far south would probably see some freezing rain.
  14. Nothing falling here in Reading just yet but I imagine anything that does will fall as snow for a while. DP still -2C here and Wet bulb temp still just below freezing. This morning the forecast was for us to reach 7C tomorrow, now only showing a max of 3C, and only 1C from midday onward. Just shows that anything can happen in situations like this, especially where the temperature gradient is so large
  15. Thinking I might be a bit too far south here in Reading to get anything, even with the southward shifts in the models. Not losing all hope just yet though, hopefully the southward trend continues
  16. It'll be interesting to see if the difference in track between the GFS and ECM is almost solely due to the different modelled strengths of the ridge or whether partly due to the stronger intensity that the GFS has the storm attaining. ECM 0z initialized Irma about 10mb weaker than it was, and the NHC expect Irma to be stronger by T48 than the ECM does by T120. 12z ECM will be interesting this evening.
  17. The ECM has been showing a trend over the last few runs, with the ridge to the NE strengthening and stopping it from going back OTS. Worth keeping an eye on for sure, been showing a Major hurricane for about 5 runs now
  18. Convection increasing, cloud tops cooling and outflow becoming better organised, wouldn't be surprised to see an eye in the microwave imagery in the next hour. Looks like Harvey will become a hurricane about a day before models and NHC anticipated - I'm sure if the 12z/18z suites are initialized at hurricane intensity they will be quite sobering. I think Wilmas max pressure drop was about 96mb in 24 hours.
  19. The storm has just about passed now, dropped over 37mm in under an hour.
  20. Been underneath this thunderstorm in Reading for about 45 minutes now, almost 20mm of rain in the last half an hour or so according to the Uni observatory and there's about 4 inches of water trying to make its way into my flat. Looking at the radar it looks like there's still a lot more to come!
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