Jackfrost

Hah! I think I'd actually prefer that than for it to somehow bypass Wales altogether and deliver its white gold to Southeast England. Can you imagine the looks on our faces?

Here's what I'm expecting: 1) Rain or sleet 2) Snow, possibly 1-2 cm but marginal 3) Snow, 2-5 cm 4) Snow, 5-10 cm, possibly a bit more The line across North Wales is the northern extent, although realistically I think it could be quite a bit further south than this.

I have it on good authority that Derek has a preference for mild weather, but on this occasion I think he's just being cautious considering some of the uncertainty there still is over Sunday's event. At the moment I only expect marginality to be a possible problem for the coast from the Vale of Glamorgan westwards, and even that is not certain. Showers of sleet and snow across high ground in North Wales as we speak. Showers of rain moving towards South Wales from the west with a decent chance of some hail, sleet or wet snow in Southeast Wales, but I think settling snow is unlikely.

Pleasantly surprised by the 00Z. I suspect it's overdoing it in terms of snow today and tomorrow - it shows the potential for wintry showers affecting both the south and north at various times as more organised and widespread than it actually is - but I'm going to put my neck on the line and suggest that what it's modelling for Sunday is fairly accurate: a spell of widespread snow across Wales down to low-ish levels, possibly even sea level, with amounts still TBD. Also, as for the MOD thread: it's enjoyable to follow but it can get frustrating when snow, the weather type most desired by far on NW, is imminent, yet the focus is on the horizon (i.e. ten days ahead, it's always ten days). I get the desire for regular repeats of the major cold episodes of the past but the reality is that those are rare with our oceanic climate, so let's try to enjoy this weekend without focusing on the possible zonal period after that.

I do generally have a lot of respect for the Met Office but they failed us in Storm Dennis in what was a very dangerous situation, and may well have done so again. The Taff has burst its banks in Pontypridd this morning, the second time in less than a year. This kind of flooding is becoming ever more common all over Wales. While we're all snow lovers and enjoy hunting for it, I worry that flood watch will become the main winter activity in these parts in future, and our media and forecasting agencies need to keep up.

Thank you for the kind words, and yes, so far we've avoided anything too terrible. The experience of being flooded with wastewater really was awful. We'd only moved in a few months before and weren't warned beforehand that the house was vulnerable. After the flood we had to stay with relatives for four months while our house was fully decontaminated and everything the water touched disposed of. Even after we'd moved back in, the smell of damp still lingered for ages. I'm glad you've managed to avoid ever being flooded, and hopefully the worst any of us will be dealing with is some waterlogged fields and gardens. And on the subject of Wales and what happens here in terms of weather being ignored, I think one of the main problems is that we don't have our own national media, leaving us fully reliant on London-based media. When the media, government and business are all highly centralised in London, there's simply not much incentive to pay attention to thinly-populated, relatively poor Wales in the brief TV forecasts (and BBC Wales's weather coverage often feels a bit rudimentary and rushed). While the lack of a national media is an issue specific to Wales, the media and government also have a habit of failing more distant parts of England. Remember the slow reaction to the Somerset Levels being inundated at the start of 2014, compared to the defences quickly put in place when wealthier (and, without getting too political, Tory heartland) areas beside the Thames in the Home Counties became vulnerable a few weeks later? A lot of this is a result of everything in the UK being centralised in London, and basically, the further north and west a place is from London, the more of an afterthought it is.

It's eased off for a bit now but Southeast Wales, and especially the Gower, Swansea, NPT and Bridgend, have had a real soaking, with more to come. Snowdonia has also been very wet, as expected. It'll be "interesting" to see what we wake up to.

I do think there's a good chance that Wales could be more badly affected by flooding tonight than anticipated by the Met Office. I do understand why they felt the need to issue an amber warning for that swathe of England, considering the population density there combined with snowmelt, but there is the feeling that Wales is an afterthought for many UK-wide organisations in general, not to mention the Westminster government. I vividly remember the red warning for the Valleys in Storm Dennis being issued far too late, after the rain had fallen and as homes were being inundated and infrastructure damaged; if it had been issued earlier, a lot of the mess and misery (people would have been more prepared and would have moved important possessions upstairs for example, instead of the trauma of losing everything they owned) could have been avoided. Have to admit, I'm feeling anxious tonight. We live in a house that has been flooded by overflowing sewers in periods of intense rain before and unfortunately I'll be pulling an all-nighter to keep an eye on the drains in the road out the front, and with all the emergency numbers on standby. It shouldn't have to be like this.

I agree that it's been a bit frustrating for many of us but actually, compared to every winter since 2013-14 (with the exception of 2017-18) this one has been an improvement, with some lengthy periods of below average temperatures, thought never unusually cold or snowy. Statistically the current pattern is very unlikely to hold through until the end of winter in March. The hemisphere profile is very atypical at the moment and the full effects of the two SSWs are still yet to be seen. As for this week, my main worry is still the amount of rainfall (the 200 mm predicted in Gwynedd exceeds the totals that brought chaos to the Valleys in Storm Dennis), but some wintriness is not out of the question as Christoph finally clears early on Thursday. Also, the weekend is too far off have any real idea about but it does look chilly. Oh, and in no way am I ready for Spring just yet!

The next window of potential looks like being late Wednesday into Thursday as this upcoming rainfall event looks like it could turn quite widely to snow towards its end. Worth keeping an eye on, I suppose, but the amount of rainfall this week and its potential impacts are my biggest worry at the moment (not least because I live in a house prone to flooding!)

Some very concerning rainfall accumulation charts for Wales this week. 110-125 mm widely, up to 200 mm on high ground, which is in the territory of the totals that brought the devastating flooding from Storm Dennis last February. In the mid-range, a continuation of the pattern we have at the moment looks likely, with a succession of fronts off the Atlantic bringing mostly rain across our part of the world and some snow further north and east across England and Scotland. Wish there was something more positive to report. Let's see what this evening's output brings. If we consider winter to be Dec-Jan-Feb, yesterday we passed the midway point. It hasn't been a terrible winter overall, with some chilly periods at times, but it has been a bit frustrating for some of us. There's no real sign of a zonal Atlantic barrage but if we're to see an improved February, we really need a pattern shift and/or the influence of the SSW to show its hand.

Have to admit that things look a bit underwhelming at the moment after the excitement of a few days, especially the further south and west you are in the UK (and that includes Wales). However, it's worth remembering that historically Wales has tended to benefit more than most other places from the scenarios being modelled.

Whew, that's admittedly a bit of a monster Wales-wide snowfall on the 18Z GFS for the 19th-20th.

Lovely! Hope you and Norman had fun; there's nothing like the atmosphere of a snowy forest. It's safe to say that this cold spell has been a disappointment in terms of snowfall around these parts with just a few deposits here and there, which is a bit surprising as inland South Wales tends to do well for snow compared to the rest of Southern Britain and the Midlands, but it's really nice to see proper snow elsewhere in Wales. Drizzly sleet here.

A few updated thoughts (and I hate to be the bearer of bad news to anyone hoping for something more significant): my earlier prediction of a widespread covering of 2-3 cm was a bit over-optimistic. 1-2 cm locally is probably more likely. Also, I don't think we're going to see anything other than patchy precipitation south of the Beacons. The entire coast, more or less, is likely to see rain, with the south coast being mostly dry. In addition, marginality can't be ruled out away from high ground all over Wales. I'd put the "sweet spot" as being somewhere in north Powys and inland parts of North Wales, with 5-10 cm in some places, mostly higher ground.

Absolutely perfect midwinter's day today. I know this cold spell hasn't been spectacular in terms of snow and extreme low temperatures, but I've really enjoyed it. As for the upcoming snow, I expect a widespread (away from the coast and West Wales) but light covering of mostly no more than 2-3 cm for most, maybe a little more for some, and increasing the further north and higher up you are. What this is likely to be is a welcome reminder of what a little lying snow looks like rather than an event to be remembered for years to come.

More often than not, yes, but there are plenty of signals for some kind of change into next week. It's just trying to pin down anything specific at the moment that's a bit of a mug's game.

Showers to come for a while yet in North and West Wales! Not sure I fancy the chances of them reaching the southeast; the Beacons have been acting as a repellant for a few days now, sapping precipitation of energy. That said, if anything does make it over it's much more likely to fall as snow than on recent days. Eyes down towards potential developments at the start of next week, now. Edit: Jay wasn't wrong; the showers are intensifying a bit over land. Let's see if they make it across the Beacons.

I agree that there's plenty to look out for and after some of the awful winters of the last decade just a long-ish spell of below average temperatures is a relief, even without bringing snow into the mix. Re. tomorrow night's feature, unfortunately at this stage I don't think much is likely to come of it outside of inland North Wales.

Not to cause any unnecessary excitement (can we handle any more of that?) but there's a clump of precipitation currently developing over Pembrokeshire that seems likely to spread east across South Wales through today provided it doesn't decay. The bad news? It'll fall as sleet at best for most of us. Still, it's one of those calm, cold, grey winter days that I really like for some reason, where you can smell woodsmoke on the air and the only sign of life is the occasional robin. Perfect for a walk in the fields outside town.

Wet bulbs are still too high in Wales, I'm guessing because we're on the western edge of the low pressure (that was once Storm Bella) still influencing our weather. I said earlier I'd make a basic map of what can be expected tomorrow, based on the assumption that there's any precipitation around to begin with. Here it is, and even this might be a bit too optimistic. (The line across the Beacons is the northern extent, and sorry to anyone further west - I'm not familiar enough with the geography over there to make a prediction, but my general guess would be mostly rain):

Well, it's moving much slower than it would in a zonal set-up due to it skirting around the edge of a cold block, so if anything were to come of it I wouldn't expect it to make its presence felt any earlier than 10-11. Definitely not worth staying up the entire night for!

Yes, or a "wintry mix", a phrase I've come to hate this week. Hah It'll be worth watching the radar to see how accurate the Met Office and BBC forecasts have been though, and I suppose it's not totally, 100% out of the question that we get a small surprise tomorrow. That happened on Feb. 9th, 2007 when a system that was due to go through the English Channel came quite a bit further north than forecast. There'd been heavy snow the day before and that second system brought a second consecutive day of heavy, settling snow. Not a bad event at all in the middle of what was a very mild and wet winter.

Dare I say it, that system might be far enough north over Ireland for it to bring light and patchy precipitation to South Wales, south of around the Heads of the Valleys, if it continues on its current path. Still touch-and-go, though.

The 6Z somewhat surprisingly saves us on the precipitation front with the system even covering North Wales, and keeps it around for longer, but it also ups the marginality for South Wales.