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Jackfrost

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Everything posted by Jackfrost

  1. Some serious fatigue setting in in the model thread tonight. It's not surprising really, because even if a UK-wide blizzard was in the offing, there's only so much of the intense obsession shown by some posters there that a person can take before they experience burnout. I get the impression that some of them don't even sleep. This has been posted elsewhere. I don't recognise the forecaster so I'm assuming it's from a regional forecast. Also, the chart I'm posting is particularly good for Wales. The period is fast approaching now, so we should have a fairly good idea of what'll happen by the end of today.
  2. https://xcweather.co.uk/ Its forecasts are based on the GFS so expect it to chop and change accordingly.
  3. Things do seem much more positive for us than they did this time yesterday. I feel I need to be a bit of a boring wet blanket with this though, and urge caution to avoid a big disappointment. We've been burnt so many times over the years and until the Met Office are fully on board and explicitly using the words "significant snowfall", I think it would be unwise to get overly-excited and especially to start spreading the word. Just for fun, here's my forecast:
  4. I remember this well. A genuinely good event which salvaged what was otherwise a very mild and dull winter. Two consecutive days, the 8th and 9th, of heavy snow. 15-20 cm in total. The first bout of snow was well-forecast; it began in the early hours of the 8th and last until around midday, with a slight thaw setting in in the afternoon before it all froze solid overnight. The second bout, which was forecast to go through the English Channel instead, started around dawn on the 9th and continued until that afternoon. The BBC forecasts for that period: https://youtu.be/Vw_orgAJ0-4 https://youtu.be/r2gl-72ts34 https://youtu.be/l4cGYlHAUSM At the moment, it does feel like one door is opening when another closes in terms of the models. Right now, I'd put the chance of snow on the 25/26 in lowland and coastal Wales at ~10%, inland South and Mid Wales at ~25%, and inland North Wales with some altitude possibly as high as 50%. That said, the cold/mild boundary is going to be more important in determining if it snows than altitude. As for the small Channel low modelled for South Wales and Southern England on the 27th, it really is too far out to take seriously and make any predictions for; trying to get a picture of this weekend is bad enough! Cold and unsettled does seem to be the theme, though.
  5. Last night's big snowstorm disappearing on the following run wasn't a great surprise; I wasn't really expecting it to happen and for me it felt more a chance to reminisce on better winters gone by. Always a bit of a disappointment to see the possibility removed, though. Other than that, I don't think there's much more to add. The evolution this week after Wednesday is still as clear as mud, with anything from flooding rains to some snow being possible in Wales. Unfortunately, what I'm not seeing in the mix at the moment is any entrenched cold, but an average-to-chilly and unsettled period similar to earlier this month does seem a likely outcome to me. This might be of interest to some here: the Met Office's annual Snow Survey, covering the years 1953-1992. Even before global warming really accelerated in the 2010s, the records show that significant snow was fairly rare in Merthyr and very rare in Swansea (just to name two recording stations), with completely snowless months even in the late '70s-early '80s (the period held up as the holy grail of cold winters) quite common. Snow Survey of Great Britain | Met Office UA DIGITAL.NMLA.METOFFICE.GOV.UK METDLA/6/1/5
  6. Yeah, this has got me on tenterhooks too. I really don't want to sound like a broken record or a killjoy, but while the signal and potential is there, the snow accumulation charts at this range are notoriously unreliable and it's rare to see an event like this, let alone at Christmas. It would be wise for us all to be cautious and remember that while enjoying the charts, but I think we can all agree that this Christmas is currently shaping up better than all of the previous ten years.
  7. One very snowy Christmas Day for North Wales in particular on the 18Z, with the focus switching to Mid and South Wales into Boxing Day. An incredible run, but important to remember that big adjustments will take place before and that it could all be taken away on the 00Z. Edit: Whatever I was expecting from this run, I think it's fair to say this wasn't it:
  8. Unlike with the colder and unsettled weather earlier this month, which didn't really deliver for Wales, with this upcoming period of cold it would appear that the exact boundary between the cold and mild air will be more important than altitude in determining if it snows. History tells us that Wales, especially inland south and mid Wales, can do very well in clashes in air masses; the most famous event in these parts is, of course, the blizzard of Jan. 1982 (which incidentally saw the boundary between cold and mild in the Bristol Channel, with Cardiff at -2ºC and Somerset at 7ºC), but I can think off-hand of numerous events even in more recent years, from the almost forgotten heavy falls of Marches 2001 and 2004, to January 2013 and Storm Emma. That's not to mention the events of 1963, which saw Tredegar recording an absurd 152 cm of snow from one event, a record for an "urban" area in Britain, and Feb. 1978, which impacted Southwest England most severely but also brought a lot of snow to Wales south of the Brecon Beacons (Met Office records show 56 cm in Merthyr from this event). So yes, a period of upcoming interest but still far from certain, and important to remember that when negativity creeps into the MOD discussion (as it inevitably will when one of the runs is not as positive as previous ones), it'll often be based on IMBY wishful thinking rather than taking into account UK-wide variations in climate and geography.
  9. While I'm not currently expecting anything wintry away from the highest ground in the coming week, these forecast temperatures are fairly close to the threshold for wintriness and are not usually associated with a December Atlantic storm. With normal zonality, you can expect the systems to pass directly over the UK on their way to northern Germany or Scandinavia rather than dive NW-SE, a sign of the strength of the block to our NE. Anyway: Worth keeping an eye on at the very least.
  10. Pleasantly surprised to see the band becoming more organised and reinvigorating as it comes south, with development over North Wales. That should make things less "touch-and-go" than I previously expected when it comes to the question of there being precipitation around. Before and after, 9:45 and 11:15: As for temperatures, on the face of it they do seem slightly too high for snow for most of us, but dew points are decent.
  11. Very touch-and-go as to whether we receive snow, rain or nothing at all today. The further east in Wales the better, but the majority of the precipitation looks like going through the Midlands, and as the day goes on things naturally become more marginal. My forecast would be for some light and patchy snow with altitude in Monmouthshire, eastern Valleys, east Powys and northeast Wales, rain at lower levels and towards the coast.
  12. I'm not so sure, Keith. The 12Z has shifted the main band slightly westwards, which now puts Wales on its western edge instead of being at the mercy of showers, and DPs look just about low enough. Somewhere like the Heads of the Valleys and higher locations further north could see a few cm, I suppose, with some falling snow at lower levels but struggling to settle. Again, this is an unusual setup. Forecasting a typical Atlantic storm is pretty straightforward because we know of the areas most susceptible to orographic lift (Snowdonia, Beacons, Valleys) and peak gusts (Aberdaron, Mumbles), but the specifics in Wales with a low plunging down from the north are harder to predict.
  13. Showers now starting to turn wintry across high ground in Wales according to the NW radar. Those levels will gradually drop through the day. After being sceptical about the potential for snow + high winds in Wales, I have to admit that I'm now less sure; it's rare to get extreme northerly gales in the UK and the uncertainty on exact placing of rain/sleet/snow still seems quite high. This morning's updated warnings will be interesting, and an interesting twenty-four hours of weather coming up.
  14. It's rare to get a northerly gale of that intensity! I'd be a bit worried if we hadn't had our old and battered garden fencing repaired and reinforced earlier in the summer, because those are some strong gusts even inland further south. Either way, it'll feel bitter with the windchill. Re. snow, I really doubt we'll see any settling below 300-400 m, and even there accumulations likely won't be significant, but as things stand I think a wintry mix to quite low levels is possible.
  15. Feb. '96 seems most likely to me. I have a fuzzy memory of an event as a very young boy where there was enough snow for the local kids to build a snow fort, something I wouldn't have remembered if it had been Feb. '94 (being three at the time). Did this event bring a lot of snow to Somerset too? It doesn't seem to be one that looms large in the memory of winter fans, perhaps because it affected the west instead of the south and southeast. Yes, most of them posted by me! That's an event that has legendary status in the Valleys and goes to show how easy it is for inland South Wales to turn extremely snowy indeed once cold air is in place, probably easier than in any other southern part of the UK, because of our location and geography. Here are a few more from Nelson in 1982, not sure if I've posted these before. Truly a huge amount of snow.
  16. My first post on here in a very long time. I can't say I'm enjoying this Autumn as much as I normally do, thanks to the abnormal warmth, excess rain and a lack of those cool, still, foggy days or sunshine to really show off the colours, so my thoughts are turning to winter. I found the following photos on a local history website; it seems to have been a hefty fall of snow, I'd guess 30-40cm. They were taken halfway up the Valleys in Nelson but I have no idea when, other than clearly in the 1990s due to the Vauxhall Astra in the first photo. Can anyone with a memory that goes this far back hazard a guess as to when this was? I wasn't born until 1990 and my mental almanac of weather events goes back no earlier than the early 2000s. Thanks.
  17. Signs on the radar of re-intensification of the first band as it moves off the Channel into Southeast Wales.
  18. Yes, I'm a bit surprised by the size and intensity of it too. That intensity will no doubt diminish a little as it moves into the cold block, but not enough to avoid a decent fall over much of Wales if it continues on its current E-NE track.
  19. For those with precipitation currently over them on the radar but nothing falling, the reason is that it's so cold and windy that the snow is literally being evaporated before it reaches the ground. Wait a bit longer and it'll start to filter through to the lower atmosphere.
  20. Really pleased for those out west seeing snow this morning - you're doing better than us in the Valleys this winter, and that doesn't happen often! The front is now edging northeastwards with precipitation approaching the Vale, so I'd expect it to be snowing in most of Southeast Wales within the next hour or two. As for amounts, I wouldn't like to guess, but I think it's likely there'll be patchy snow across the bulk of Wales for much of the day.
  21. Where on earth did this come from? I don't normally take any notice of the BBC's automated forecasts, but I'm surprised.
  22. Sorry to be a party pooper but I can't see anything more than some light to moderate snow west of around Swansea, and flurries at most elsewhere in South Wales. If you run the radar and look at the leading edge of of the front currently off the north coast of Cornwall, it's fizzling. The high is still too strong and the precipitation is evaporating as it comes up against it. Still, the front is definitely worth keeping an eye on. I know it's a cliché to say this, but nothing in meteorology is guaranteed.
  23. Ah, lovely! I think nostalgia for childhood is a big part of why so many us love snow as much as we do as adults. The snow here has started to settle on paths, pavements and roads in the last hour and it’s now totally white outside, although curiously it’s not doing that further up the valley in Merthyr. Suppose a slightly high altitude doesn’t necessarily guarantee lower DPs.
  24. I'm a bit less confident tonight about snow in South Wales than I was earlier, but still as confident of significant snow in upland parts further north. I think the Valleys are likely to see falling snow but it could be a challenge to see it settling away from the tops unless precipitation is sustained and heavy. As for Sunday, that's anyone's guess.
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