Jackfrost

Well, possibly. It's all conjecture at this stage, but current climate knowledge (and logic!) would suggest that a weaker or diverted NAD would increase likelihood of blocking and, as we've seen in the last three winters (mostly in the north and west), an increased potential for PM outbreaks. Perhaps I was using hyperbole with my Newfoundland/Hokkaido comparison but given the predominantly cool and wet winters we normally experience, it wouldn't take much of a temperature drop to turn "cool and wet" into "cold and snowy". Conversely, our winters could become stormier: two of the last three, I think we'll all agree, have been rather on the stormy side, and these have coincided with the pronounced cooling of the North Atlantic. We're at such an early stage in our understanding of AMOC that all we can do at the moment is hypothesise, similar (in a separate but related (in terms how of they affect our climate) example) to our understanding of sunspot activity.

The most extreme impact of a large scale NAD slowdown wouldn't necessarily be the drop in average temperatures (although that would be very significant): it would be how much snowier our winters would become, possibly akin to Hokkaido or Newfoundland, given that while a weakened NAD would bring less heat to our shores, it wouldn't impact on available moisture.

For me, this was the most interesting paragraph in Matt Hugo's analysis: It will be revealing how the current lack of activity (read: silence) from the sun coincides with our upcoming winter, given how little is know about the links between solar activity and our climate. Hopefully some evidence is forthcoming.

Snowing like crazy and settling at (where else?) Dowlais Top and Rhymney. Heavy, driving sleet here which is turning increasingly to snow.

It's back to snow rather than intermittent rain/sleet here. 1.4ºC. Carl, I know you suffer from SAD and are easily affected by the weather but believe me, sometimes being teased with a patchy covering or having snow falling onto a wet ground with little chance of settling (as we're getting right now) feels even worse than nothing at all! Spring and Summer are on their way and even if weather-wise it's a stinker, we have the light nights and early sunrises (for night owls like myself) to look forward to.

Gah. It's now raining.

Yes, I noticed that. Not looking too bad for us later! When I made that comment I was talking about the transition from some of the snow to rain in North Wales about an hour ago although, at the moment at least, the snow zone within the system looks to be holding rather than shrinking. Dowlais Top now turning white, snow just starting again here. Going by where the borders between rain, sleet and snow are on the Netweather radar, the snow line must be around 75-100m.

Good: that system is holding its intensity and even re-intensifying as it moves south, and there's also some heavy precipitation in the Irish Sea which is moving south-southeast. Bad: it's increasingly turning to rain (although it's still picking with snow here).

Light snow on and off here.

i'm expecting some snow in the Valleys in the next hour or two. Even Pembrokeshire is seeing snow away from the coast.

I'm not sure why the Met Office felt the need to issue that warning. It's definitely not cold enough for snow here; it's not even snowing at Dowlais Top.

Few snow grains on the breeze here, same as yesterday morning.

Bullseye. I don't think any of us are going to get excited about that given the letdowns of this winter so far, but it's good to see potential is still there.

I'm approximately 93.6% certain that it's too warm for snow here. It feels slightly chilly rather than positively cold. Gah!

To be specific, it was "all change to rain and snow". Which, given our poor record in these kind of events over the last four or five years and the underwhelming model output for next week, is not something we should get too excited about at this stage.

Sleet and snow is starting to break out over the Northern part of Mid Wales. I wonder if a little evaporative cooling will take place in other parts as the heavier precipitation moves in. I've just been to put the bins out and it genuinely feels cold. With the drizzly, icy rain it's that damp cold that sinks through to your bones.

Yeah, maybe I was a bit premature and maybe my eyes were playing tricks on me. For what it's worth I'm sure it's still sleeting or that there's at least a wintry component to this rain but the radar doesn't back me up on that. Let's hope for a little surprise overnight. It'll be nice just to see some falling snow, since it's obviously not going to settle with the ground soaked and temperatures marginal to say the least.

Light-to-moderate sleet here.

I get the impression from the 18Z and Met Office text update that some of us, especially inland and with elevation, could see some falling snow within the next 24-36 hours but the chance of a widespread, disruptive snow event looks like it's diminishing. Knowing me I'll probably stay up until the 00Z rolls out and knowing you lot, those of you with common sense, you'll be fast asleep and forgetting that this underwhelming cold spell is even happening.

There's an area of light precipitation (with a few heavier bursts) currently moving down through Wales. Expect it to decay and/or raise the uppers, but it's something to watch nonetheless.

2.9°C in Cardiff, 1.9°C here, 7°C in Newport; that doesn't sound at all right!

Yes, an over-egging of the temperatures both by the models and TV forecasts has been notable over the last few days. I suppose that can be explained by altitude making such a huge difference to the weather in the UK, more than many other countries, that to cover every possible local outcome would require an hour-long weather forecast. It has felt properly wintery around here with patches of lying snow, white hills in the distance, leaden skies with weak sun poking through and temperatures no higher than 2°C although, of course, there's nowhere near enough snow for my liking. At the moment I'm more positive than negative about Monday, at least for inland South Wales, but that's probably cold comfort (no pun intended) for the majority who live on the coastal strip.

Tonight and tomorrow, patchy light rain or sleet with snow on high ground but nothing more than that. Just the dribs and drabs associated with the system sliding down through England. Monday is more interesting. The front has been corrected slightly Westwards and the models have a tendency to move these kind of setups further West as each run progresses so all is not lost. There's currently an awful lot of sleet in the forecast for Southeast Wales from late Sunday until early Tuesday. A one or two degree drop in temperature and a further Westwards correction or two, both of which are more likely than not going on past experiences and typical model behaviour, would put many of us in the firing line.

Very, very poor 00Z for snow prospects in South Wales, I'm afraid.

Yes, I noticed that too. I hate to be the bearer of bad news and whatnot, but Bristol is in the rain. As are we. You're not alone, Southwesterners.