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NorthNSW

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  1. The possibility of some severe thunderstorms around the region tomorrow. Relatively weak wind shear may possibly hinder severe potential to an extent, and also mean that areas nearer to the ranges and the adjacent parts of the coastal plain should do better, with activity likely to be a bit 'hit and miss' here right on the coastal fringe. (I'm halfway between Coffs Harbour and Port Macquarie) On Wednesday afternoon, there were storms around the Coffs Harbour / Grafton area to my north that produced 50c piece and golf ball sized hail at Grafton, $2 coin sized hail at Bellingen, and 2-3cm hail at Woolgoolga.
  2. Summery weather looks like arriving from tomorrow onwards around here for the next week, with max temps largely expected to stay between 26-29ºC and minimums between 18-20ºC (and humid too). I was down in Port Macquarie today (60kms south, as the crow flies). Nice day, 25.9ºC max with moderate humidity and sunny, aside from a bit of thin high cloud. The Lighthouse Beach area, on the far southern end of the city. Decent waves about, probably pumped across the Tasman from the rather deep low that was west of New Zealand about 36-48 hours ago. The beach is looking pretty sad at Lighthouse, aside from it being high tide and strong surf, the past 5 years or so have been pretty ruthless on the more exposed beaches with fairly consistent East Coast Low activity. They'll eventually recover though, with an inevitable switch to drier weather and a quieter period for lows (like the 2002-2007 period was). UV Index reaching 14 tomorrow, probably get a few days of 15 near Christmas.
  3. New South Wales, a state of constrasts today. Winds up to 106km/h this afternoon in some suburbs of Sydney, snow in the Snowy Mountains, and snow flurries on the very highest parts of the central ranges (with small hail showers or sleety showers elsewhere on the central ranges and non-alpine parts of the southern ranges): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1wJybqWRzU Meanwhile here on the North Coast there were widespread max temps of 30-35ºC today. 31.8ºC here at the house today, with a very similar 31.6ºC at Port Macquarie, a hot 34.2ºC at Coffs Harbour, and even hotter at Evans Head which topped the state with 35.2ºC, in contrast to Thredbo Top Station's max today of 1.2ºC (spending most of the daylight hours below zero). Dewpoints / relative humidity fell sharply after the passage of the trough, the Port Macquarie obs give the best example of the fairly abrupt change from humid to dry: Time Temp DP %RH Wind 12:30pm 27.8 21.3 67 N 13 22 01:00pm 27.5 21.1 68 NNE 11 17 01:30pm 28.2 21.0 65 N 15 20 02:00pm 29.1 20.0 58 NW 13 20 02:27pm 30.4 9.8 28 WNW 28 44 02:29pm 30.7 10.1 28 WNW 30 52 02:30pm 30.6 10.0 28 WNW 30 52 03:00pm 30.9 6.0 21 W 30 44 The cold/cool air is yet to reach here but should move through by early morning. A minimum of 14ºC tonight and then a max of 24ºC tomorrow with low humidity, quite unsummer-like. That type of temp and humidity combo, would be something more typical of late September.
  4. One house has been destroyed this afternoon by the tornado that was near Ben Lomond here in northern New South Wales, which is pretty unlucky for the owner as that area is sparsely populated, just the odd farm/house here and there. Link to story: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/tornado-spotted-in-new-south-wales-20131123-2y2qz.html Pictures from the Sydney Morning Herald news article:
  5. We are currently being warned for the possibility of tornadoes here on the latest severe storm warning: I think the Bureau have gone over-the-top by including coastal areas under the tornado warning though.
  6. The area of highest instability could change in the next couple of days, but it's hard not to get excited when you see values like these!! (Black dot marks my location between Coffs Harbour and Port Macquarie) Btw, I forgot to add to the previous post that we had 137.8mm from the recent storm outbreak. This is more than we received in the previous four months (109.2mm - Jul 31.6mm / Aug 0mm / Sep 24.6mm / Oct 53mm). Overall, it will go down as an above average year for rain, even if the rainfall was skewed very heavily towards the first 6 months of the year (of the 1665mm that has fallen so far this year, 1418mm of that fell in the first 6 months).
  7. Final part: Hail in towns neighbouring Coffs Harbour (Mid North Coast NSW) (Nov 16th), including poor old Sawtell again which had a similar hailstorm only 5 days previous:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iy5SwmFZBV8http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eR14i4QOzOIhttp://www.coffscoastadvocate.com.au/photos/hail-saturdays-storm/24392/#/17 Dorrigo hailstorm (Mid North Coast NSW) (Nov 18th): http://www.coffscoastadvocate.com.au/photos/dorrigo-hail-storm-18-november/24412/#/9 Gold Coast (Southeast QLD) (Nov 18th):https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22Y13KGkdt4 It's outside of SthEast Qld and Northern NSW, but an honourable mention to the Sydney (Hornsby) Tornado on the 18th, ignore any mention of the irritating term 'mini-tornado' in the video, it's a confirmed tornado by the Bureau.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lDQ3WvY27J0 Until this recent outbreak, it had been a fairly quiet storm season. Though October 29th an exception, perhaps foreshadowing the storms to come in November.Port Macquarie (Oct 29th) (Mid North Coast NSW):http://www.portnews.com.au/story/1872370/photos-all-hail-the-weather-gods/#slide=2 (99 photos)(We had 1cm hail here that day) Daily Radar Loops on the Grafton 512km Composite radar of the Storm Outbreak across the region (the Nov 9 covers part day, and the Nov 10-18 loops cover all 24 hours of day). They may take a little while to load, or might not always load on the first go (the site can be a bit temperamental):Nov 9th (11am to Midnight AEDT): http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR281-grafton/2013-11-09-00/2013-11-09-13Nov 10th: http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR281-grafton/2013-11-09-13/2013-11-10-13Nov 11th: http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR281-grafton/2013-11-10-13/2013-11-11-13Nov 12th: http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR281-grafton/2013-11-11-13/2013-11-12-13Nov 13th: http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR281-grafton/2013-11-12-13/2013-11-13-13Nov 14th: http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR281-grafton/2013-11-13-13/2013-11-14-13Nov 15th: http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR281-grafton/2013-11-14-13/2013-11-15-13Nov 16th: http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR281-grafton/2013-11-15-13/2013-11-16-13Nov 17th: http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR281-grafton/2013-11-16-13/2013-11-17-13Nov 18th: http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR281-grafton/2013-11-17-13/2013-11-18-13 Sorry about my absence, I'll try and keep you updated again when notable weather occurs here or about the region. There could be some severe storms around on November 23rd, fairly widespread areas of CAPE above 2000 predicted. Though it's not set in stone quite yet.
  8. Second part... Hail on the Sunshine Coast (Southeast QLD) (Nov 16th): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDBKQGNMDx0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nqyujEJ80Z4 Large hail in a semi-rural locality south of Brisbane (Southeast QLD) (Nov 16th): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxauWVMvM88 Wild storm at the popular tourist town of Byron Bay (North Coast NSW) (Nov 16th): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DM6GKOZj1hE (I'll post that Sydney tornado news item in the next part Styx )
  9. Quite a sustained outbreak of storms along the Mid North & North Coasts of New South Wales and Southeast Queensland. Storms, some severe, formed 10 days in a row (Nov 9th to Nov 18th) as a surface trough stalled in the region, and then an upper trough stalled over the region from the 15th onwards (a low developed off the Sydney/Hunter coast on the 16th/17th/18th but had limited effect this far north). We had storm activity form in the local area (within approx 30kms) on 8 out of 10 days. We had 12 thunderstorms move over here during this period too, varying from weak storm with a little lightning to a severe hailstorm. It brought much-needed rain to most places, following a dry to very dry July-October period. The most severe storms occurred on the 16th, when the upper trough was strongest, and large hail (2cm+) fell in a number of places, including giant (5cm+) hail. A tornadic waterspout formed in the waters offshore of Brisbane under a severe storm on the morning of the 16th too. The biggest hail so far seems to be about 8-9cm in diameter. The biggest of this hail fell on the Sunshine Coast, about an hour or so north of Brisbane. On the NSW Mid North & North Coast, the biggest appears to have fallen about an hour north of here in the Coffs Harbour region, with up to 6-7cm hail (I recall hearing a report of 8cm hail at Gleniffer, but haven't seen photos). We had hailstones as large as 4.5cm here on the 16th, but mainly around the 3cm mark, on that day. The storm developed and hit here in the space of 30 minutes. It caught the Bureau unaware, and we were not included under the warning (the southern end of the warning area was about 20kms to our north), until almost 10 minutes after the storm had started (but the biggest of the hail had already fallen). We also had a hailstorm the day before, but only 1-1.5cm hail. Hailstorm here at the house on Nov 16th, showing the largest stone of 4.5cm (45mm): Comparison shot from part of backyard, showing the large stones falling first, then smaller but more numerous stones falling next: Side garden: Hailstorm at Sawtell, near Coffs Harbour (Mid North Coast NSW) (Nov 11th) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76HhOJne6Ow Supercell storm structure inland from the Gold Coast south of Brisbane (Southeast QLD) (Nov 15th): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1eP5WVM5bQ Same storm as video above. This timelapse will expire (be unviewable) in about 3 days though: http://webcams.bsch.au.com/timelapse.html?date=11152013&s1h=2&s1m=50&s1p=pm&s2h=6&s2m=50&s2p=pm&cam=mundoolun_s Hailstorm - Hervey Bay region (Southeast QLD) (Nov 15th): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5lUmtzZERnI I've separated this post into 3 different posts (next two posts will follow shortly), as only 4 videos can be embedded in each post.
  10. Summary here over the past week (Date/Min/Max/MaxWindGustDirectionSpeed&Time/24hrRainfall): Jul 4th - 12.1ºC / 21.7ºC - N 41km/h @ 11:16am - Nil Jul 5th - 15.3ºC / 24.0ºC - NW 39km/h @ 8:00am - Nil Jul 6th - 9.8ºC / 21.3ºC - ENE 24km/h @ 1:16pm - Nil Jul 7th - 6.2ºC / 19.1ºC - SSW 31km/h @ 11:52am - Nil Jul 8th - 7.1ºC / 18.9ºC - SSE 22km/h @ 1:32pm - Nil Jul 9th - 8.3ºC / 18.9ºC - SSE 46km/h @ 3:42pm - 5.0mm Jul 10th - 11.4ºC / 15.3ºC - SW 33km/h @ 10:50am - Nil Past week: Fine for most of the week. Quite warm on the 5th with NW'ly winds ahead of weakening cold front (about 5 degrees above normal for July max temps, but nowhere near record-breaking though, most July max temp records about the region are between 28.0 to 30.5ºC). A brief onshore flow of showers moved through during the evening of the 9th as the high moved into the Tasman Sea. The 10th was a sneaky cold day, thanks to persistent cloudcover. Midday cam images for the past week [image approx 600kb]: This week (Jul 11th to Jul 17th): It's been fine today, just the slight chance of a shower overnight. A ridge of high pressure should be dominant feature from tomorrow afternoon onwards, promoting settled weather on the coast. A trough should move into the west of the state during Sunday and Monday but it is not expected to bring any rain or showers here on the coast. A cold front is expected to move into the western half of the state on Wednesday, but is currently not expected to reach the north coast until the next day. It should be a mild week, though nights may tend a bit cool in the early half of the week. Bureau's forecast max temps for the next six days (Tomorrow to Wednesday): 19 / 19 / 19 / 20 / 20 / 21
  11. Summary here over the past week (Date/Min/Max/MaxWindGustDirectionSpeed&Time/24hrRainfall): Jun 27th - 13.6ºC / 21.5ºC - SE 35km/h @ 12:23am - 21.0mm Jun 28th - 13.2ºC / 15.9ºC - WSW 28km/h @ 5:33am - 14.2mm Jun 29th - 13.0ºC / 20.3ºC - SW 26km/h @ 10:07pm - 1.6mm Jun 30th - 12.0ºC / 16.4ºC - SW 37km/h @ 10:31 - 5.4mm Jul 1st - 13.1ºC / 20.8ºC - S 65km/h @ 7:09pm - 17.8mm Jul 2nd - 13.0ºC / 18.3ºC - SW 52km/h @ 12:46pm - Nil Jul 3rd - 14.1ºC / 20.4ºC - SW 30km/h @ 9:51am - Nil Past week: A "topsy-turvy" week for max temps, some mild days with a few cool days (didn't feel cold due to high humidity). The high humidity and cloudcover, and later in the week, breezy conditions kept nights warm for this time of year. The low ended up forming off the southeast Queensland coast, far enough to the north to only bring showery weather rather than rain. The low moved away from the coast overnight into the 2nd. Midday cam images for the past week [image approx 600kb]: ~~~ This week (Jul 4th to Jul 10th): It was fine and mild today. Warm tomorrow (for this time of year). A ridge and an area of high pressure is expected to bring fine conditions all week. Cooler air will filter into the region as the week progresses. Bureau's forecast max temps for the next six days (Tomorrow to Wednesday): 23 / 20 / 18 / 19 / 18 / 19
  12. Summary here over the past week (Date/Min/Max/MaxWindGustDirectionSpeed&Time/24hrRainfall): Jun 20th - 12.1ºC / 17.0ºC - SW 39km/h @ 10:02am - Nil Jun 21st - 11.4ºC / 18.5ºC - SE 20km/h @ 8:20pm - Nil Jun 22nd - 9.2ºC / 18.3ºC - SW 39km/h @ 10:46am - Nil Jun 23rd - 9.9ºC / 19.0ºC - SW 31km/h @ 10:01am - Nil Jun 24th - 10.1ºC / 19.7ºC - SW 28km/h @ 10:06am - 1.0mm Jun 25th - 6.8ºC / 17.8ºC - SW 28km/h @ 7:43pm - Nil Jun 26th - 9.0ºC / 20.7ºC - SW 69km/h @ 6:10pm - 17.0mm Past week: A low developed off the NSW coast and stayed around the Sydney Coast for a couple of days, bringing heavy rain to the south of the low but mostly dry to dry conditions in this area to the north of the low. The rain led to Warragamba Dam (Sydney's main dam) to overflow once again this year. A cold pool of air moved over the region to the north of the low during the 24th and 25th. A thunderstorm brought hail up to just over 1.5cm in diameter on the afternoon of the 24th. The storm was triggered by a cold pool of air moving into the region, whilst surface temperatures were close to 20ºC. Storms also formed offshore on the night of the 25th in the lingering cold air, but the coast remained dry despite some activity close to the coast. Light snow fell on along the higher parts of the NSW ranges outside of the Snowy Mountains alpine area during the overnight going into the 25th, including on the northern ranges of NSW to the west of here above about 1200 metres (including at Guyra: http://www.guyraargus.com.au/story/1599292/chilly-tuesday-as-first-snow-falls/?cs=605), with some snow flurries below that height down to around 1000m in a few places (snow was heavier and more consistent down south in the Snowy Mountains). The low moved eastward and the associated trough northward on the 26th, allowing for showers to develop here. These showers moved into this area during the afternoon, bringing some strong wind at times. Midday cam images from the week, and a storm off the coast on the 25th [image approx 700kb]: Thunderstorm on the 24th that brought small hail: This week (Jun 27th to Jul 3rd): Showers eased early this morning as the trough weakened. A few showers should fall tomorrow. An upper trough over the weekend is expected to deepen the surface trough off the coast, which should bring an increase in showers helped by a moist E to SE'ly flow. There are reasonable indications that a low will form within the surface trough offshore on Monday, and most likely off the far southern Queensland coast. If this low forms, showers would increase to rain (possibly moderate to heavy) on Monday and Tuesday, though most likely easing on Wednesday as the system moves away (if and where it forms will have a strong bearing on how much rain we receive). Bureau's forecast max temps for the next six days (Tomorrow to Wednesday): 19 / 19 / 17 / 18 / 20 / 21 ~~~~~ A new forecasting product has been introduced on the Bureau's website called 'Meteye': http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/ Forecasts are available for any location in Australia based on grids of 3x3km or 6x6km (varies state to state), except for Queensland and the Northern Territory where the forecast product hasn't been introduced yet. It also has a display of current weather conditions countrywide, where various options can be selected (default option is current temp and radar).
  13. Summary here over the past week (Date/Min/Max/MaxWindGustDirectionSpeed&Time/24hrRainfall): Jun 13th - 12.8ºC / 22.6ºC - WNW 41km/h @ 8:25pm - Nil Jun 14th - 12.0ºC / 20.6ºC - E 28km/h @ 1:43pm - Nil Jun 15th - 10.5ºC / 20.5ºC - WSW 33km/h @ 1:38pm - Nil Jun 16th - 9.2ºC / 19.0ºC - SSW 22km/h @ 12:08pm - Nil Jun 17th - 8.0ºC / 18.8ºC - WSW 33km/h @ 11:16am - Nil Jun 18th - 9.0ºC / 18.4ºC - WSW 31km/h @ 10:34am - Nil Jun 19th - 7.4ºC / 18.4ºC - SSW 50km/h @ 2:14pm - Nil Past week: It was fine all week, with winter arriving during the week. Maximums and minimums started to fall from the 15th as the cool, dry SW'ly general flow took hold. After a cold morning on the 19th, winds quickly increased during the day as the pressure gradient increased between the high south of Tasmania and a strengthening low near New Zealand. Midday cam images from week [approx 650kb]: This week (Jun 20th to Jun 26th): Fine though fairly overcast today. A little light rain is possible tomorrow as an upper trough moves through. A hard week to forecast Saturday and beyond, with limited model consensus. It depends where the trough/low forms, with the likelihood of dry weather for remainder of the week from Saturday if it forms off the southern coast of NSW. But if it forms off the central coast of NSW, some showers may develop here around Monday (the Bureau favouring this with EC/ACCESS having the trough/low more off the central coast, but I'm a bit sceptical, and think it will be closer to GFS with it forming off the southern coast). One of those 'wait and see' situations. Regardless of the outcome, it should be a cool week overall. Bureau's forecast max temps for the next six days (Tomorrow to Wednesday): 17 / 18 / 17 / 18 / 18 / 19 Shortest day of the year tomorrow. Sunrise at 6:45am and sunset at 4:53pm (Day length of 10 hours and 7 minutes). Still a short period of UV Alert tomorrow though:
  14. Summary here over the past week (Date/Min/Max/MaxWindGustDirectionSpeed&Time/24hrRainfall): Jun 6th - 14.5ºC / 23.8ºC - NNW 35km/h @ 10:31am - Nil Jun 7th - 16.9ºC / 23.0ºC - NW 20km/h @ 9:07am - Nil Jun 8th - 14.7ºC / 21.0ºC - SW 35km/h @ 10:00am - 0.2mm Jun 9th - 13.1ºC / 21.5ºC - WSW 20km/h @ 1:30am - Nil Jun 10th - 14.9ºC / 21.4ºC - NNW 28km/h @ 12:59pm - 2.6mm Jun 11th - 13.6ºC / 22.7ºC - WSW 20km/h @ 10:01am - Nil Jun 12th - 14.5ºC / 23.1ºC - NNE 41km/h @ 3:38pm - 16.8mm Past week: A drizzly shower on the 8th during a weak onshore flow. A little light rain on the 10th from a passing upper trough. A trough moving through the area on the 12th brought some rain and a brief thunderstorm in the evening. Warmer than normal nights and days too for this time of year. A possible tornado is suspected to have moved through near Warwick in far southeastern QLD, about 60kms north of the NSW/QLD Border, during the storm activity that occurred across northern NSW and southern QLD yesterday: Much like here, it is very unusual for winter thunderstorms to be severe in that area, especially in June or July. Winter thunderstorms, which are very infrequent up here (most winters will see only 1 to 2 storms, occasionally 3), usually are quite benign (e.g. couple of flashes, shower of steady to moderate rain). This week (Jun 13th to Jun 19th): Fine weather developed early this morning as the trough moved offshore. Aside from today, cooler and more seasonable temps expected this week, with cool to mild days and cool to possibly cold nights. The fine weather should persist pretty much all week. An East Coast Low off the far southern NSW / far eastern Victorian coast (well south of here) will direct a cooler, drier SW'ly flow into this region from tomorrow. The low will move further out into the Tasman Sea over the weekend but continue to direct that general SW'ly flow over this area in the following days. On Wednesday, there is the chance of a late drizzly shower as a high begins to move east near Tasmania, possibly turning winds onshore later in the day. Bureau's forecast max temps for the next six days (Tomorrow to Wednesday): 20 / 20 / 19 / 19 / 18 / 17
  15. Summary here over the past week (Date/Min/Max/MaxWindGustDirectionSpeed&Time/24hrRainfall): May 30th - 12.8ºC / 20.5ºC - NW 22km/h @ 2:01am - Nil May 31st - 14.0ºC / 22.9ºC - NE 33km/h @ 3:28pm - Nil Jun 1st - 14.4ºC / 21.7ºC - NNW 31km/h @ 10:51am - Nil Jun 2nd - 17.0ºC / 20.1ºC - SW 59km/h @ 11:38pm - 1.0mm Jun 3rd - 13.5ºC / 19.1ºC - SSW 67km/h @ 12:16am - Nil Jun 4th - 12.4ºC / 21.5ºC - SSW 41km/h @ 11:25am - Nil Jun 5th - 11.9ºC / 21.6ºC - WSW 20km/h @ 12:48am - Nil Past week: Predominately fine weather, with cloud at times. Mild days and mild to warm nights (for this time of year). The 17ºC minimum on the 2nd was unseasonably warm, thanks to a mild airmass ahead of the trough, cloudcover, and a constant N'ly breeze through the night. Some light rain on the 2nd from a passing trough. Midday cam images from the past week (approx 600kb): This week (Jun 6th to Jun 12th): It was fine today with increasing cloud. A weak cold front will brush the region, a little bit of light rain may fall, but it isn't expected to bring any recordable rain. A high will move into the Tasman Sea during Saturday, chance of a drizzly shower on Saturday and the slight chance on Sunday in a weak onshore airstream. On Sunday, a trough is expected to develop over the eastern interior. In all likelihood, it should be mostly fine on Monday. Tuesday should be mostly fine too, maybe the possibility of a stray afternoon/evening shower. Though on Wednesday, there are indications that the trough could deepen and move eastwards closer to eastern NSW, with light rain possibly developing late on Wednesday. Bureau's forecast max temps for the next six days (Tomorrow to Wednesday): 22 / 20 / 19 / 19 / 21 / 20 A couple of photos from a day trip about the Nambucca region on June 4th (the neighbouring valley to the north of here): View from Yarrahapinni looking over coastal parts of the Macleay Valley and towards South West Rocks: In amongst the subtropical rainforest: Forestry trail: Looking south from Nambucca Heads. South West Rocks is on the left near those two reasonable sized "humps", almost looking like an island: Looking westward (inland) from Nambucca Heads: Looking north from Nambucca Heads toward the regional city of Coffs Harbour: Our beaches have copped a fair hammering over the past 4 years from East Coast Lows, with some beaches like the one at Scotts Head looking very lean at high tide (water lapping the foredune!). My dad is a local and has seen the beaches in a similar state back in the 70s following a number of wet years. They recovered over the years following before this recent wet period began at the start of 2009: Scotts Head: Fancy a dip? Sea temps are around a balmy 22ºC at the moment:
  16. Winter rainfall outlook for SE Australia - For my location, a 65-70% chance of exceeding the median rainfall for winter. Winter temperature outlook for SE Australia - For my location, a 45-50% chance of exceeding the median max temp for winter. And a 65-70% chance of exceeding the median min temp for winter. Climatitc Influences helping to determine this outlook by the Bureau: The tropical Pacific has remained ENSO-neutral since mid-2012. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are likely to sit on the cool side of neutral during winter 2013. Four of five international models surveyed by the Bureau favour the development of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event during winter-spring 2013. A negative IOD during winter-spring increases the chances of above normal rainfall, and thus cloud amount, over southern Australia. Increased cloudiness reduces sunshine hours, and hence daytime temperatures, over inland Australia. Warmer than normal ocean surface temperatures currently surround much of the continent. Warmer ocean temperatures will tend to influence air temperatures in those areas closer to the coast. Warmer ocean temperatures can provide more moisture to the atmosphere, which in favourable weather conditions (e.g., interactions with fronts or north-west cloudbands) may result in increased rainfall. (Indian Ocean Dipole: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/IOD/about_IOD.shtml) Can be a funny time of year rainfall-wise here, with rainfall tending to be most variable during winter. Some winters can be dominated by extended dry spells, courtesy of stubborn high pressure systems sitting over this latitude. While others, can be wet and bring very heavy rainfall and major flooding (usually from East Coast Lows). Our two worst floods on record actually occurred in July and August. The driest winter on record here is 7.1mm, but the wettest winter on record is 1519.7mm. The winter average is 300.1mm (Avg for: June 141.6mm, July 78.8mm, August 79.7mm).
  17. Summary here over the past week (Date/Min/Max/MaxWindGustDirectionSpeed&Time/24hrRainfall): May 23rd - 10.2ºC / 18.8ºC - WSW 50km/h @ 10:33pm - 128.8mm May 24th - 14.3ºC / 16.9ºC - SW 70km/h @ 6:22am - 143.2mm May 25th - 13.9ºC / 20.4ºC - SW 61km/h @ 4:54am - Nil May 26th - 13.5ºC / 22.1ºC - SW 35km/h @ 10:06am - Nil May 27th - 11.0ºC / 22.5ºC - S 56km/h @ 7:08pm - 9.4mm May 28th - 14.2ºC / 22.2ºC - SW 31km/h @ 3:19am - 0.8mm May 29th - 13.1ºC / 23.0ºC - ENE 28km/h @ 2:37pm - 0.6mm Past week: Very heavy rain from an East Coast Low fell from the evening of the 23rd, and persisted through the 24th, clearing very late in the night. Persistent rain and cloudcover brought a cold day on the 24th. Fine weather returned for the 25th and 26th. An onshore airstream directed from a high over the Tasman, in combination with a rather weak trough sitting near the coast brought a few showers from the early morning of the 28th with a couple of light showers in the days after. Midday webcam images from past week, and heavy rain moving through on morning of 24th (image size approx 650kb): This week (May 30th to Jun 5th): The chance of a shower this evening or tomorrow morning, otherwise fine. A rainband bringing light rain is forecast to move through on Sunday as a trough moves through the state. A light shower or two is possible on Monday. Mostly fine weather is expected to return at this stage for Tuesday and Wednesday as an area of high pressure nears, perhaps the slight chance of a lingering light shower though. Bureau's forecast max temps for the next six days (Tomorrow to Wednesday): 22 / 21 / 19 / 19 / 20 / 21
  18. The East Coast Low brought very heavy rain and localised flash flooding to the region. 128.8mm here in the 24 hours to 9am yesterday, and 143.2mm in the 24 hours to 9am this morning. The two-day total was 272mm, with 270.6mm of that falling in the 30 hours between 5pm Thursday and 11pm yesterday (I checked the gauge on Thursday at sunset at 5pm and there was 1.4mm, the rain set in shortly after and persisted quite consistently through to 11pm yesterday when it stopped). The rain was heavier than predicted. There were some intense downpours and even embedded storm activity. The highest 24 hour total during the event was at one of the Bureau's gauges at Fishermans Reach around 4kms to my WNW where 204.8mm fell (205mm in the graphic below is a rounded-off figure). Over the two days, that site recorded 364.6mm, the highest in the region. Only one river flooded (the Orara), as most of the heavy rain was restricted to within 20-30kms or so of the coast. There was also very strong winds at times, though not as strong as the gusts up to 125km/h predicted (I think BOM were covering the possibility of a couple of waterspouts coming ashore), but enough to bring down a couple of trees and cut power in several places across the region. Some pictures in the local paper of the wet weather from mainly around Kempsey (which received about 60% of what I got here): http://www.macleayargus.com.au/story/1524735/its-been-raining/?cs=1778 Picture below shows 24 hour totals to 9am yesterday morning and 24 hour totals to 9am this morning (the highest 24 hour total for that day shown in box, with the "dot" it corresponds to a few millimetres to the left of the top left hand corner of the box). Also a rainfall map of NSW from this week, showing an area of 200-300mm rainfall centred over this part of the coast: Only a week shy of being five whole months into the year, and already we've had 1326.4mm so far this year. This is just a bit over 160mm less than our average yearly rainfall! BOM are giving us a 65-70% chance of a wetter than normal winter this year.
  19. Latest update to the Severe Weather Warning has BOM expecting wind gusts potentially up to 125km/h in this district: "Destructive wind gusts of up to 125 km/h and heavy rain which may lead to flash flooding are forecast for parts of the Mid North Coast forecast district overnight and during Friday." Tomorrow's forecast for this district: "Cloudy. Rain. Isolated thunderstorms, contracting to the coast in the late afternoon. Heavy falls likely. Winds south to southeasterly 35 to 65 km/h, with gusts above 100 km/h possible along the coastal fringe. Overnight temperatures falling to between 9 and 14 with daytime temperatures reaching between 10 and 18." I suspect they might be thinking there could be waterspout activity along the coastal fringe.
  20. Severe Weather Warning issued this afternoon for this district later tonight and tomorrow: Something to spice up an otherwise boring month weather-wise.
  21. Summary here over the past week (Date/Min/Max/MaxWindGustDirectionSpeed&Time/24hrRainfall): May 16th - 14.0ºC / 23.1ºC - NE 26km/h @ 4:32pm - Nil May 17th - 10.9ºC / 22.1ºC - WSW 39km/h @ 8:49pm - Nil May 18th - 9.9ºC / 20.3ºC - WSW 37km/h @ 9:06am - Nil May 19th - 9.0ºC / 19.4ºC - WSW 31km/h @ 9:35am - Nil May 20th - 9.0ºC / 19.3ºC - SSE 22km/h @ 1:12pm - Nil May 21st - 9.4ºC / 23.9ºC - NNW 20km/h @ 4:06pm - Nil May 22nd - 14.6ºC / 17.0ºC - W 22km/h @ 1:57pm - 8.0mm Past week: For the most part, it was a fine week. Cooler, dry air started intruding into the region from the 17th leading to cool nights and cool to mild days. A trough started moving through the state on the 22nd, bringing some light rain. The cloudcover and light rain also brought a cold day on the 22nd, though very high humidity and little wind (wind gusts stayed below 15km/h for most of the day) didn't make it feel overly cold. This week (May 23rd to May 29th): A low is expected to form off the central coast of New South Wales during today as the trough moves offshore. Rain should develop late tonight here. It should persist through tomorrow, potentially moderate to heavy at times (I feel like by merely mentioning the chance of heavy rain that I could jinx it ). The rain should ease by around Saturday morning to a lingering shower or two as the low moves further out to sea. A high over Victoria may then direct the odd isolated shower along the coastal fringe, with just the chance of a shower on Sunday and Monday. There are indications that as the high moves into the Tasman Sea during Tuesday that moist onshore winds directed from the high onto the coast may combine with a weak trough to bring a shower or two on Tuesday and Wednesday. Bureau's forecast max temps for the next six days (Tomorrow to Wednesday): 19 / 20 / 21 / 21 / 20 / 19 Forecast rainfall for tomorrow on BOM (the product uses nine different computer models to produce an outcome on these maps). Small black dot marks my location on the coast between Coffs Harbour and Port Macquarie:
  22. Yep from my own weather station since late April. The rain has always been from my own backyard, except when I'm away (like last week), because I still use the trusty manual raingauge (beetles/spiders loved to play in the automatic gauge, so I conceded defeat and gave up on it for the time-being. I can only imagine come November, the amount of Christmas Beetles it would collect, lol ). Max wind is from Coffs Harbour. Smoky Cape is right on the sea and a bit over 110m above sea level in a somewhat exposed location, often with a bit of a breeze all night helping to keep it's nights warmer and sitting above the inversion with colder, settled (calm to near calm) air near sea level. I'm about one kilometre inland from a north-facing bay and 4kms west of the Cape, close enough to still benefit a bit of the warmer sea to my north on most cooler winter nights (a bit confusing, will become clear once you see the pics below). Often our nighttime temps and occasionally daytime temps in wintry months has some level of correlation with Coffs instead (Coffs at near sea level and similar distance inland from nearest shoreline like myself, but doesn't have the fairly unique north-facing bay). The vicinity of the bay but also a small ridge line to my south and west stops the coldest air from affecting here (another kilometre inland from here on the other side and several frosts are guarenteed every winter). With Smoky and here, daytime temps are usually reasonably similar year-round, nighttime temps are usually different come the wintry months (though similar when windy, raining or under the influence of a moist airmass), Nighttime temps are similar in the summery months though. The town sits a couple of kilometres west of the mountain behind the cape (photo from the National Parks website) (town not visible): We have a fairly unique feature of the NSW coast between the VIC border and Cape Byron, with a reasonable-sized northern-facing bay. I live about a kilometre inland from the shoreline of the bay in the foreground of the pic below. Not a good-quality picture and bit dated (looks like around 2004/2005), but does show the best perspective from town for looking back in the other direction to the above photo (pic from Trip Advisor): This photo probably shows the Cape's exposure/elevation better than the top pic (from some random's Flickr account):
  23. First sub-20ºC maximum of the year here today, and (so far) two nights in a row of sub-10ºC minimums. Wintry weather. (the emoticon is a bit melodramatic, lol. I don't even own a scarf, or beanie, or even gloves/mittens )
  24. Summary here over the past week (Date/Min/Max/MaxWindGustDirectionSpeed&Time/24hrRainfall): May 9th - 13.9ºC / 23.2ºC - SW 26km/h @ 10:15am - Nil May 10th - 13.5ºC / 23.3ºC - S 37km/h @ 11:20am - 0.4mm May 11th - 14.7ºC / 21.4ºC - SE 31km/h @ 3:01pm - 3.4mm May 12th - 14.0ºC / 22.7ºC - WSW 24km/h @ 6:31am - 4.0mm May 13th - 14.9ºC / 24.6ºC - NNW 35km/h @ 11:49am - Nil May 14th - 16.1ºC / 22.0ºC - N 24km/h @ 12:22am - 0.2mm May 15th - 11.8ºC / 20.3ºC - W 20km/h @ 7:14am - Nil Past week: A bit of light shower activity in the earlier half of the week, and spit of rain on the 14th from a weak and decaying rainband. A mild week overall, though the 15th was cooler. This week (May 16th to May 22nd): An upper trough moving through this evening is not expected to bring rain. A fairly slow-moving area of high pressure shoudl bring fine weather through to Tuesday. On Wednesday, a trough is forecast to move into the region and may possibly bring a little light rain. Bureau's forecast max temps for the next six days (Tomorrow to Wednesday): 22 / 21 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 18 ~~~~~ I was in Canberra basically all week. Canberra's temps/wind/rain from the 10th to 15th: May 10th - 0.5ºC/24.1ºC - ENE 26km/h @ 6:02pm - Nil May 11th - 1.0ºC/23.1ºC - ENE 33km/h @ 6:52pm - Nil May 12th - 3.6ºC/21.0ºC - NW 33km/h @ 2:43pm - Nil May 13th - 7.7ºC/13.8ºC - N 44km/h @ 5:14pm - 2.4mm May 14th - 0.8ºC/14.1ºC - WNW 48km/h @ 3:13pm - 0.4mm May 15th - 0.5ºC/13.4ºC - NW 46km/h @ 11:49am - Nil Despite the cold mornings, the first couple of days were nice and it looks like we caught the last bit of autumnal warmth in Canberra. The days turned rather cool from the 13th onwards, with the wind making it feel cold. Some pics from Canberra: Pics from the recently opened Dairy Farmers Lookout at the (also) recently established and opened National Arboretum - Looking towards the city centre of Canberra and the southern end of Lake Burley Griffin - Looking into the Woden Valley part of Canberra. The largest white building about the centre right is the Lovett Tower, the tallest building in Canberra at 26 storeys. It is full of government departments. - Weston Creek area of Canberra - Autumn colours - Cockington Green. Gardens with miniature displays. An area of British displays and another area dedicated to international displays - A damp and cool day, looking along Anzac Parade from the second floor of the Australian War Memorial - Part of the Australian War Memorial - Part of the Captain James Cook Memorial in Lake Burley Griffin - An unusual town clock in the town centre of Gungahlin (a part of the city of Canberra). Gungahlin is one of the newer parts of Canberra and was established in 1998. In only 15 years, Gungahlin has over 40,000 people - Map of Canberra - http://maps.google.com.au/maps?q=Canberra,+Australian+Capital+Territory&hl=en&ll=-35.313444,149.2939&spn=0.321055,0.676346&sll=-35.28094,149.144897&sspn=0.321184,0.937958&oq=canberr&hnear=Canberra+Australian+Capital+Territory&t=m&z=11
  25. Summary here over the past three days (Date/Min/Max/MaxWindGustDirectionSpeed&Time/24hrRainfall):May 6th - 12.7ºC/21.8ºC - S 39km/h @ 5:33pm - 0.4mmMay 7th - 13.8ºC/20.2ºC - SSW 35km/h @ 9:21am - 5.2mmMay 8th - 12.6ºC/21.3ºC - SSE 32km/h @ 4:00pm - Nil Past three days:A little bit of shower activity about thanks to an onshore airstream directed from a high pressure system in the Tasman. Cool nights and mild days. This week (May 9th to May 15th):Fine weather for the remainder of today and through most of tomorrow. A high will direct an onshore airstream onto the coast with a shower or two possible from late tomorrow until early Sunday morning. Fine weather should return by Sunday morning as a ridge of high pressure moves in, with fine conditions continuing into Monday. On Tuesday, a frontal rainband is expected to approach. It is unclear how much the rainband could bring on Tuesday, quite possibly no rain at all or potentially a little light rain (2-3mm). Wednesday is looking dry at this stage.Bureau's forecast max temps for the next six days here (Tomorrow to Wednesday): 24 / 23 / 23 / 25 / 24 / 24 Off to Canberra (600m ASL on the Southern Tablelands) for the next six days, where the Bureau's forecast max temps for the next six days are: 23 / 21 / 21 / 19 / 15 / 15
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