Gael_Force

9.0 c please.

JMA certainly going for the N Scandinavian high in weeks three and four of October.

The ECM charts on Meteociel are showing the low at +48 to be the same as GFS http://images.meteociel.fr/im/3127/ECM1-48_fya3.GIF

The neonicotinoids are reputed to cause an insect and, by consumption, an animal type of aids whereby previously known parasites/fungus/bacteria now become much more lethal to the compromised immune systems.

http://www.weatherbellmodels.com/weather/ecmwf/2012091900/arctic/ecmwf_t850_anom_arctic_loop.php Huge positive anomalies at H850 but will that have much effect at the surface at this time of year?

15.5 plz

I know that this thread is primarily looking at the NH snowcover for pointers to the following winter but recent research states that it may have as much of an impact on our summers - ie less snow causes the meanderings of the jetstream to favour a mean trough close to/over the UK. The following graph seems to correlate well with poor summers since 2007 but not so well with winter as the recent cold ones have occurred during a well depleted NH snowcover anomaly. http://neven1.typepa...175af3b3970c-pi

Just to correct above info - it is TS Joyce that is shown to be in the Atlantic. Isaac is modelled to move through the Gulf of Mexico with landfall anywhere from Florida panhandle to Texas/Louisiana border.

I found this zoomed map of current sea surface temperatures in the Beaufort sea. http://www.weatherbellmodels.com/weather/sst/alaska_cdas1.png SST anomaly version. http://www.weatherbellmodels.com/weather/sst/alaska_cdas1_anom.png Lot's of interesting additional parameters for our more well known models too. http://www.weatherbellmodels.com/weather/#

I looked this up the other day, using the compare last 64 years facility on meteociel's archives. I just checked up to the tenth as that is the period covered by this storm. There were strong cyclones(circa 980mbs) in years '57,'69,'78,'89, '93 and '94. Could not see anything that approached the depth of the recent storm but suppose we must be mindful that obs were not as plentiful so reanalysis may not tell the whole story. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?mode=1&month=8&day=1&year=1948&map=4

The poor summers in the UK have played a part but is not relevant to the rest of Europe where there has been a staggering decline in some species. This, IMO, is the real culprit. http://smallbluemarble.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/Global-Wildlife-AIDS-associated-with-the-Neonicotinoid-Insecticides.pdf

Ok, took me a bit of time to figure that out but have included the pic in the original post.

Predominantly snow if the EC experimental precipitation type is accurate. Edit :- link needs a log-on - try main menu.

14,7c

Reads like a lawyer has written it - classic 'I don't want to be sued' sheeeite. Will it revert to type when the Olympics are over?

The clever play on words has actually hit on one of the effects of a very southerly jetstream in past history. http://www.botany.hawaii.edu/faculty/wong/BOT135/LECT12.HTM

If you run through the month of July 1889, there are some very similar synoptics to the current month. 2012 is notable for the persistence of very warm upper layers and the extent to which they penetrate into the Arctic. http://www.meteociel...89&map=4&hour=0

There are two new unknown quantities in the mix at the current time - record low amounts of ice in the Arctic and a sun that is behaving in a way not observed for at least a hundred years. It is a bit premature to rubbish or dismiss those who are relying on teleconnections as we know/knew them; These may still be operational but being overridden by processes that are yet to be properly understood.

I note that 30% of the data has come from the GEFS 06Z ensemble suite - this should be taken on board by those who dismiss the two non sonde runs. Likewise, the facts from a retired meteorology lecturer. http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=42&t=111226 (...) I understand why you're asking about additional data for the 06Z and 18Z model runs. Keep in mind that there are other sources for upper-air data, and that, although sondes are nice to have, we are not totally dependent on them. Indeed, models can incorporate data from literally thousands of aircraft observations each hour. And that's only one available source of upper-air data. For folks who live for a single aircraft reconnaissance into a tropical cyclone, I would think that thousands of aircraft observations each hour, aided by satellite-inferred winds, VAD winds, NOAA profilers, etc., would be enough to convince them that 06Z and 18Z model runs are just as accurate as the 00Z and 12Z runs. Also keep in mind that our data assimilation methods carry forward observations from the 00Z and 12Z sondes and all other data, even after the sonde times. The bottom line for the folks who believe that the model runs at 06Z and 18Z are not as accurate as the 00Z and 12Z run is pretty compelling: If the runs initialized at times different than the sonde times (at 06Z and 18Z, or hourly in the case of Rapid Refresh or other such models) were really not as accurate, do they really think that NCEP would be spending so much computer time on them (as opposed to making the model resolutions higher for the two sonde-time runs)? (...)

Yes, the temperature shot up with the strong westerly wind but it has now cooled with a stiff breeze off the sea. http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/LFMN.html

Sorry, not model related but to answer his query. http://ds.data.jma.g...d20120627_e.png http://ds.data.jma.g...d20120620_e.png http://ds.data.jma.g...d20120613_e.png http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/climate/synop/td20120606_e.png Last four weeks global temperature anomaly. Data from JMA. http://ds.data.jma.g...mate/synop.html

Run on 26/06 had first 3 weeks of July as cool and wet with 4th week showing warmer and drier weather, more so to the north of UK. New run tonight so we'll see if any change tomorrow.

@Gray-Wolf: Did you look at the years 2012 was competing with for title of wettest AMJ on record? They are.... 1782 336.7 1830 324.4 1797 313.1 IMO, the common factor is a period of low solar output that includes the Dalton Minimum. It's very enlightening to have a look at the records for that time - you will see many of the wild swings in monthly figures that we have been experiencing recently.

You all assume the opening poster refers to thunder storms - I think he/she actually means the weekly, stormy low pressure cells that have caused so much of this months precipitation. This pattern was a common occurrence during past periods of low solar activity, where the jet stream moved south and brought an Icelandic type of summer weather to NW Europe. http://www.bitsofscience.org/solar-minima-cooling-europe-5842/

All change just in time for the Olympics - 17c please.