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Gael_Force

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Gael_Force last won the day on July 6 2015

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  1. Mid November 2010, at 10mb level, there was a very strong positive anomaly over Greenland. The more detailed 30mb on JMA has a mid month split vortex with heights across Greenland to Kamchatka. I may be wrong on this but my understanding is it is the geopotential height placement rather than the warming that is important. The warming just gets the heights to shift position to a placement that is either good for us or not.
  2. I don't think there's any evidence it scuppers the following winter. The vortex will eventually form and then be subject to a new series of events/ teleconnections to impact it in the new season.
  3. I made this point a few weeks back; nothing unusual in the NH 500 polar set up for mid November You may be right in the ice loss having a delaying effect on vortex formation but I would also add that the intense scrutiny of charts gets earlier every year. There's also the school of thought that a strong SSW or final warming at the end of previous winter manifests in a delay to the new winter season vortex formation.
  4. Reasonable placement of heights and picked up on the deep digging trough into SW Europe.
  5. It's probably just coincidence but the NH 500mb forecast has a striking similarity with the charts from Nov 2002 when the SH also had a very strong SSW. Would there be a means to have the SH event influence the NH. The JMA image is upside down in view
  6. What is shown in those charts is nothing out of the ordinary for mid November. A 170 years of data shows this date has little bearing on following winter weather. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=14&month=11&hour=0&map=4&mode=1&type=ncep&region=
  7. Previous cycle graphs available on this site.... SWS - The Sun and Solar Activity - Graphs of Historical Solar Cycles WWW.SWS.BOM.GOV.AU upslope to a strong max by 1990. If we are at or near minimum, geomagnetic activity is stronger than same stage of last cycle. http://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/kp/index.html
  8. Even if it does change later in autumn, it's another example of the new season replicating the pattern that closed out the previous season. This seems more apparent where the vortex has been particularly blown apart by SSW or very strong final warming. Look at the charts for early May; almost identical when you allow for difference between winter/summer arctic temperature.
  9. Somebody has done some research on this but I don't know if the scientist is reputable?? http://lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/news/2010ScienceMeeting/posters/Poster Presentations/Poster_Scafetta_Climate_Oscillations.pdf
  10. You just never know... there's going to be a lot of those beasts cantering over the snowy (sunny) uplands this winter. Good job on the weather analysis too.
  11. The current weather and what is modelled is a perfect facsimile for the well below summer NAO diagram.
  12. The French model has central pressure of 979mb...usually considered good for those type of lows arriving from SW. At least, this time plenty of advance warning to wisely cancel events.
  13. Considering the UKMO used the tripole (or otherwise) signature from May SST anomalies as one of their guides to following winter NAO, does it matter if it vanishes? A few autumn storms will mix out current SST pattern which has only been brought about by persistent heights over NE Canada and Greenland.
  14. Maybe the loss of ice is adding to the effect ?? As for studies, all the links I read were on here, in the original thread. Has it gone along with so much else that was purged because of bickering. https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00298052/document Look at the chart for August 1771 .... something similar to what is modelled for following days.
  15. If you've read any of the studies in Maunder conditions, it should not be unexpected. The monastic winemakers' accounts of the period describe early, unseasonal warmth, followed by late spring chills. Summers saw big swings from extreme heat to cold air spells: the outcome of which was the dreaded enemy of viticulturists .... frequent large and damaging hail.
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