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Gael_Force last won the day on July 6 2015

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  1. I'm looking further afield at day 10: by then a displacement warming. I still reckon you need the dominant vortex to be on the eurasian side as that drives the northerly cold to us; it all looks too flabby out east.
  2. I think, in this instance, it's the split that is actually fortifying the Canadian segment. The separation is not ideal as it leaves the dominant chunk in a position to drive westerlies. I've looked through the animations of previous warmings but there are none I can see where the split is similar to this ... the good ones had the split up through Greenland ...and felled the vortex with first punch!
  3. All those events are in the Meteociel ERA archive. I see nothing that remotely resembles what is about to take place with the cross polar warming and splitting. There are displacements with the warming coming from the Asian sector and in some instances the warming is well before the reversal date. One advantage of the ERA set is that you can see what happened through the atmosphere .... even down to ppn charts that show snow! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=1&month=2&hour=0&year=1979&map=4&region=nh&mode=2&type=era PS. it's highly unlikely the cold would be conveniently encapsulated in a calendar month ...have you looked at different permutations of days?
  4. For those more used to using Meteociel format where you animate by running cursor down the time dots. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?mode=2&month=1&day=1&year=1947&map=4&hour=0&type=ncep
  5. Somebody mentioned the warming is in similar location to the 22 Feb 1989 ssw. The chart for 3 days afterwards.
  6. I never noticed that before .... the charts are updating in the previous posts .... must be the links that were used at the time. eg: this from a post by @Bring Back1962-63 on the 18th of Jan.
  7. Ta very much! Plenty of experience of doing the research bit but working with image gizmos is not my forte.
  8. P7 in cold ENSO looks quite similar to what is modelled in the charts but the diagram is not reflecting a monthly or seasonal differential. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2010JCLI3446.1
  9. Whatever the weather on the ground, up above, it will be very different to the last two years where the core of low heights was positioned in the area.
  10. Storm Georgina - Atlantic Storm 7

    It seemed like a good idea to have a name for a social media hashtag but in reality it has been trashed by the tabloids and thoroughly confused people!
  11. That seems a bit harsh considering he is just commenting on what the latest ECM monthly shows. Surely the model will have 'considered' Nina base state parameters when the algorithms churned out the forecast?