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Gael_Force

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Gael_Force last won the day on July 6 2015

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  1. Well, it won't be the first time that the written word has been stymied by the next run of the models .... there's a long way to go till mid December! Just look at the EC monthly: it's been flopping from cold to mild and back to cold for a couple of weeks. I made mention of this in the CET thread.
  2. I'm not sure why a 6 day model is even being mentioned in relation to mid December ??
  3. The following is the translation of the header on the site ... seems to be saying it is there for the public and others to use.
  4. Yes, that was my understanding too .... -NAO more likely with central based El Nino; reverses to the coast for La Nina but it's maybe based on the likes of the above research. It's all researched on historical weather patterns but oceans are warmer and the arctic is a bit different in terms of low ice; will those theories hold good for now and in the future?
  5. November 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    The futility of using longer range output for a stab at CET prediction.... Just a week ago, this was a -1c to -3c negative anomaly .... now a complete change to 1-3c above normal for remaining weeks of November!
  6. If you are still saying that 2/3 winters from now you might have a point. Let's see what the next solar minimum brings and if there is any validity in the theory about it. Eleven years is a long cycle for people who are hungry for a regular snow fix every winter!
  7. All 4 weeks have negative temp anomaly on the latest EC monthly but see no signal for excessive rainfall. http://www.met.hu/en/idojaras/elorejelzes/europai_elorejelzes/
  8. November 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    6.9c please.
  9. Three occurred on the upslope from minimum and one in a generally low cycle. From some of the research posted, it appears the strongest chance of a cold winter is after minimum as it takes a while for the GM activity to ramp up. Equally, it takes a while for it to wind down and this winter may be still a tad too soon unless there are other factors at play to help the chances.
  10. Your MJO graphic is out of date. The closest match in the archive to such amplification in October is 2006 ... don't know what the other teleconnections were doing then. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/
  11. She had a NHC name and the UK met keeps the protocol for already named cyclones. If the next one is not named as a tropical system, it will be named by the local met agency if it warrants such.
  12. Hurricane Ophelia

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/camse_cartes.php The CAMS air quality run shows all the fine particulate rubbish coming in along with Ophelia.
  13. Hurricane Ophelia

    You are showing the chart which shows the strongest wind over the duration of the run. While gust charts show the worst to be expected, the mean, sustained wind looks pretty fierce too!
  14. For those who reckon the strat has a 'memory'... that's the temp and heights profile last winter ended on.
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