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Gael_Force

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Gael_Force last won the day on July 6 2015

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  1. 2013 a totally different type of event to the one just now: 2013 had strong vortex lobes totally separated with cross polar heights. It's not until mid month that you see a similar profile in the strat models. 2013 current 240 GFS forecast. https://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/strat.php?run=2019010606&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=240 Patience required.
  2. Thanks. Yes, I've seen the long range charts on Gav's weather videos but not the daily runs. Managed to find a link but an awful dog's breakfast in presentation format compared to what we are used to seeing.
  3. What surprised me was the Korean KMA 12z featuring alongside the ECM in the later time frames. KMA is not a model we ever see as far as I know.
  4. I kept a Europe link from long ago. Still seems to be working but way behind with November as last verification. The 12z ECM has slightly better stats than the 00Z . https://apps.ecmwf.int/wmolcdnv/scores/mean/500_z#
  5. There are local ones in among the weekly EPS you regularly post. http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2019/01/03/00/ec-ens_nat_taem_msl_sst_anom.html
  6. JMA have a 30mb archive going back to winter 1958/59. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/figures/db_hist_pen_tcc.html
  7. I wondered about the resolution as there is so much more definition in the FV3 compared to current GFS. CF the +240 hour charts from current run.
  8. I think if we have learnt anything in the last few years is that the ECM op is temperamental in HP situations. For some reason the op clusters in the most extreme "cold" outcome. To take the ECM at face value flies against that experience. Looking at the ECM mean at D10 compared to the op would be wiser especially as it verifies far better The day 10 op progression is something that was suggested by the full ensemble suite from last weekly set.
  9. They were seeing new patterns in October that preceded cold european winters and looking for cause. Ice loss, leading to open water, leading to more snow in eurasia.....all taking place round last solar minimum. We're here again, maybe another chance to sort the wheat from the chaff.
  10. Gael_Force

    Hurricane Michael

  11. Gael_Force

    Hurricane Michael

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=14L&product=ir
  12. This reminded me of something @lorenzo posted a while back so went looking for a link. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2011JD015822
  13. Gael_Force

    Hurricane Florence

    https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1039404118052237312 Reading the whole thread, a useful analysis of where the GFS old physics is letting it down.
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