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  1. Somebody has done some research on this but I don't know if the scientist is reputable?? http://lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/news/2010ScienceMeeting/posters/Poster Presentations/Poster_Scafetta_Climate_Oscillations.pdf
  2. You just never know... there's going to be a lot of those beasts cantering over the snowy (sunny) uplands this winter. Good job on the weather analysis too.
  3. The current weather and what is modelled is a perfect facsimile for the well below summer NAO diagram.
  4. The French model has central pressure of 979mb...usually considered good for those type of lows arriving from SW. At least, this time plenty of advance warning to wisely cancel events.
  5. Considering the UKMO used the tripole (or otherwise) signature from May SST anomalies as one of their guides to following winter NAO, does it matter if it vanishes? A few autumn storms will mix out current SST pattern which has only been brought about by persistent heights over NE Canada and Greenland.
  6. Maybe the loss of ice is adding to the effect ?? As for studies, all the links I read were on here, in the original thread. Has it gone along with so much else that was purged because of bickering. https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00298052/document Look at the chart for August 1771 .... something similar to what is modelled for following days.
  7. If you've read any of the studies in Maunder conditions, it should not be unexpected. The monastic winemakers' accounts of the period describe early, unseasonal warmth, followed by late spring chills. Summers saw big swings from extreme heat to cold air spells: the outcome of which was the dreaded enemy of viticulturists .... frequent large and damaging hail.
  8. Remember it well: was sent to report on the rescues. If I'm allowed to stray for a moment, a bit of archive coverage. https://www.yachtingworld.com/features/fastnet-race-1979-storm-122408
  9. A couple of tweets @knocker has posted over in model tweet thread. Also another previous seasonal signature Nino Modoki currently but if you read in entirety, with such novel extremes, it would be a mugs game trying to second guess any season now.
  10. Strong ocean temperature signatures at present. Very warm PDO , almost perfect Atlantic tripole and La Nina signal in east Pacific. What's your thoughts for later in the year @Singularity
  11. It's supposed to be correlated to geomagnetic activity rather than raw sunspot data. Can be periods of strong solar burst even at minimum. Ant Massiello has been covering some of this over recent years. You were seeing some interesting signature in Atlantic SSTs ? ... Europe multi-model ensemble has a nice tripole in place by December.
  12. Like with rainfall, the lower resolution sees more cloud coverage than likely. Its much higher res stablemate shows a much more patchy coverage and plenty of breaks for the sun to do its work.
  13. This wee snippet from the French Met office shows how exceptional the heat of tomorrow is. Red warnings a few miles away from you! http://vigilance.meteofrance.com/Bulletin.html?a=dept62&b=
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