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Gael_Force last won the day on July 6 2015

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  1. They were seeing new patterns in October that preceded cold european winters and looking for cause. Ice loss, leading to open water, leading to more snow in eurasia.....all taking place round last solar minimum. We're here again, maybe another chance to sort the wheat from the chaff.
  2. Gael_Force

    Hurricane Michael

  3. Gael_Force

    Hurricane Michael

  4. This reminded me of something @lorenzo posted a while back so went looking for a link. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2011JD015822
  5. Gael_Force

    Hurricane Florence

    https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1039404118052237312 Reading the whole thread, a useful analysis of where the GFS old physics is letting it down.
  6. With the way it felt, I thought I would be much further adrift than that.
  7. It's like looking at an old picture in the negative!
  8. I'm looking further afield at day 10: by then a displacement warming. I still reckon you need the dominant vortex to be on the eurasian side as that drives the northerly cold to us; it all looks too flabby out east.
  9. I think, in this instance, it's the split that is actually fortifying the Canadian segment. The separation is not ideal as it leaves the dominant chunk in a position to drive westerlies. I've looked through the animations of previous warmings but there are none I can see where the split is similar to this ... the good ones had the split up through Greenland ...and felled the vortex with first punch!
  10. All those events are in the Meteociel ERA archive. I see nothing that remotely resembles what is about to take place with the cross polar warming and splitting. There are displacements with the warming coming from the Asian sector and in some instances the warming is well before the reversal date. One advantage of the ERA set is that you can see what happened through the atmosphere .... even down to ppn charts that show snow! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=1&month=2&hour=0&year=1979&map=4&region=nh&mode=2&type=era PS. it's highly unlikely the cold would be conveniently encapsulated in a calendar month ...have you looked at different permutations of days?
  11. For those more used to using Meteociel format where you animate by running cursor down the time dots. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?mode=2&month=1&day=1&year=1947&map=4&hour=0&type=ncep