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BleakMidwinter

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Profile Information

  • Gender
    Female
  • Location
    Telford, c.150m asl
  • Interests
    Previously lived in Edinburgh, 96m/ 315ft asl
  • Weather Preferences
    Snow, ice, cold

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  1. It looks as if the wind has veered to be more northerly than initially forecast, so the bulk of Monday's rain is further south... tonight, and Wedensday currently look like the main days for the Midlands, but it's all a bit unpredictable!
  2. It's all likely to be a bit soggy, that's certain! the problem is that it's the flailing throw-off from the storms centred down on/near Brittany, and as they flail round anti-clockwise they swirl across the lower part of this island and the upper curved part comes across anywhere from the Tyne to the Wash, and it's just not quite clear how and where and when and how much! I'm wary about the East Coast warnings, though, because I remember how much snow we got in Telford off the East Coast snow warnings - if it's at just the right angle for a Humber streamer, it can get right the way across to us!
  3. Increasingly heavy sleet here in Telford, but in the last ten minutes it's changed to distinct snow, large snowflakes floating about like feathers, although still very wet when they land against the window-glass and of course not settling. (I'm having A Day In Bed after various work-trips and whatnot, and it is utterly splendid, sitting up idly knitting with bread rising in the kitchen and soup ready for lunch, and sleet lashing down outside! Horrible for all of the rest of you, I know, but I'm enjoying looking out at it from in here! )
  4. For some years now, I've only read the model thread in winter, trying to learn more about How Winter Happens and why it sometimes seems not to happen at all... but if there are going to be people posting in her with the same kind of clear explanations of why they hold a particular opinion, and what a chart shows, and why one model is more reliable for certain things than others.... ...well, if you lot keep it going year-round, I'm getting more and more interested and will happily try to keep following it. Although very much from a standing start, I'm afraid...
  5. I'm really pleased about that, not least because after my confidence a few pages back, we have rain again!
  6. Mine was going nicely in TF3 Telford, but seems to be turning back to distinctly-liquid rain now, not even sleet... still, plenty of hours left yet of "the evening" so fingers crossed!
  7. Turning to light snow and starting to settle - just!
  8. It looks like it's going according to plan here. For some hours, we've had SWerly rain. That's now veered round to Werly and sleet. If the forecast was correct it should now continue to veer round to NWerly and bring us the coveted Cheshire Gap Streamer, and THAT is what will bring us the snow. Don't fret about the Welsh mountains. They never were relevant to today's snow chances - it's this next bit where it veers to NWerly that brings the snow down to the Midlands, and across...
  9. Well, I certainly didn't see any forecast for today which started with snow! They ALL started with rain turning to snow, all the ones I saw... So you're writing off what's forecast to happen this afternoon, evening and overnight... it may indeed not happen as snow, but since we're still five or more hours beforehand...!
  10. Ah. You ever thought of moving to Telford? All taken this morning on the mile walk home from Sainsbury's...
  11. I rarely post anyway, but at present I am reading every single post really thoroughly because, for whatever reasons, nearly all of you are posting brilliant "teaching posts" - you post a chart and then say "you can see the feature I've circled in red; this is going to behave like this unless the feature circled in blue moves to the west in which case both will do that", or you post a fax chart and explain what the big curving line here shows or why there is such closeness between lines there, or whatever. Or you give your opinion and explain why you hold that opinion. For weeks I've only read the most recent couple of pages because there's been 15 pages overnight - but now I'm able to read the lot because it's manageable quantities and they are WORTH the reading! Thankyou, all of you knowledgeable ones!
  12. An inch or so of snow in TF3 - and even from the window of the flat it looks lethally icy - take care if you're in an icy area, folks!
  13. We have the same - about an inch down and where cars have driven over it in the carpark it's stayed white, ie hasn't melted under pressure of tyres...
  14. Who's to the NNW of Telford, then? You have precipitation. Meanwhile, whoever is NW of Telford is in the dry! Not sure I've ever seen such a stark vertical divide between staying-up and coming-down! Meanwhile, to the NNE looks pretty dark and precipitating...! (Conifer pretty much due north, you probably guessed...)
  15. It's a huge advantage to have spent a lifetime supporting the Scotland rugby side, really... you get used to huge hopes crashing down at the last twenty minutes But all these models are only models, aren't they? All of it is based on "well, analysis of past very similar situations indicates that the outcomes are most probably this or this or this with possibly more likelihood of this one". And one of the things I find really interesting, as an audience-member watching these discussions, is that it seems plausible to me that different models are better or worse at particular types of event or weather systems, but there seems a strong urge for people to defend their pet-model vehemently in all circumstances, or to damn their least-favoured model in all circumstances. It is fascinating to read - specially those of you kind and patient enough to explain why you have reached your particular conclusion! My own personal aim is to have any kind of understanding of fax charts, which remain a pretty mystery at present...
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