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fergieweather

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Everything posted by fergieweather

  1. ....and some very interesting ongoing signals for rest of Nov and 1st half of winter. Rest assured we have some very interesting model-watching coming our way :-) Enjoy.
  2. Ah, but still looks a pretty interesting winter period, for various reasons. Some key differences versus EC, but still quite distinct from the output we were looking at this time last year, for winter 15-16! November is always the more critical point when we expect (hope!) to see closer consensus between these models. Still a way to go before it's worthwhile hanging hat on any particular broad outcome for this winter.
  3. GloSea5 was out today. Quite a different take on things...
  4. Very interesting output, yes. But my firm advice would be to hold-off writing letters to Santa until we see the November EC output, plus wherever GloSea5 & MeteoFrance modelling leads us in the interim, be it consensual or not.
  5. Indeed it did. Essentially it runs an consistent story through N-D-J-F of +ve GPH/MSLP anomalies to NW/N of UK; -ve ones to S/SW.
  6. NB Signal for any early warming / reversal has waned recently. Next EC Seasonal output later this week may be instructive versus Glosea; ie if signs of -ve NAO into winter also turn less bullish versus last update.
  7. Hiya This paper worth a read. Available online in full:
  8. Relatively frequent, but any reversal of zonal winds associated with these (ie even temporarily) are rarities. There's a good case study & broader examination of these events in a paper online (I'd need to check the link/citation).
  9. Don't get too hyperventilated. Very early days. Bear in mind the *majority* signal is for a zonal flow up aloft (& probably westerly QBO into winter, despite some nearer-term complexities in lower strat). Whilst key seasonal output (GloSea5, EC Seasonal & now MeteoFrance ARPEGE-climate too ) concur on the notion of a winter (at least *initially*) prone to blocking, there's members of eg GloSea5 being run daily, so much water has yet to pass under this particular bridge. Whilst 60 yrs of QBO data is hardly anything in the grander historical record, the fact remains that behaviour this y
  10. Sorry for delay. The answer I'm given is yes, in so far as the human input (ie expert examination of component signals from the model and pattern recognition).
  11. A very good question. I will endeavour to source an answer for you.
  12. Hi - sorry, to clarify. I'm talking about 10hPa, 60 deg. N model signal through November. An interesting possibility so early in the season, but not (currently) a majority ENS solution.
  13. reversal at 10hPa, but signal very tentative at present.
  14. See http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-014-2155-z Huge uncertainty however, re scope of any teleconnection for UK winter 16-17 (models still yet to confidently resolve re ENSO neutral or, as per BOM-POAMA, a weak Modoki La Nina... thus influence on seasonal modelling will vary at this juncture). Whilst we see some current similarities emerging in latest ECMWF, GloSea5 and CFSv2 output for Dec-Feb, we can't yet be too clever on understanding exactly why they are returning the present signals. QBO situation also yet to be resolved with confidence, of course, albeit interesting
  15. Not true. Rest assured I think all weather aficionados will be delighted when they see the final product and the massive improvements when visualising the weather 'story'. Bear in mind the scope of what we will be showing / mapping: ranging from global, right down to hyperlocal scale; with model products including ECMWF's full suite and UKMO-UKV to 'fuel' all you will see. Keep faith.
  16. Given that nobody knows (and the broadscale seasonal issues are yet even to be adequately resolved) , it's not a question of 'is it even possible', it's more a question of how utterly ridiculous it is to even show such a meaningless metric. Ignore.
  17. So, broad continuity continues with overall themes (milder start to season; potential switch to colder/blocked 2nd half), but do bear in mind - as I was at pains to stress this evening when discussing this stuff on-air - that it's only 13 October; still much water to run under the bridge; plus the Seasonal Team at Exeter are yet to summarise the current output into public domain for D-J-F probabilistic purposes. The difficulty into 2nd half of winter is compounded, of course, by the fact that even a strong SSW signal yields only circa 2 weeks reliable lead time in GS5 - something no seasonal f
  18. Any global drivers remain of little anticipated influence into medium range (as previously outlined). MJO expected to remain weak in W Pacific, with only a minority of ENS yielding sufficient amplitude to be of predictive value for UK weather. Signal for a significant SSW mid-Feb remains a minority in latest output. Despite expected eastwards shunt of the cold vortex, cold/rather cold boundary layer across UK won't necessarily budge as willingly under anticyclonic conditions (when they arrive). Despite lack of clear global drivers and (currently) only minority cluster signal for major SSW, the
  19. Moreover: read way back and you'll see it called for greater likelihood of anticyclonic influence close to UK but you'll find my post noting that wasn't necessarily "blocking per se". At no point have UKMO indicated any *strong* signal for true northern blocking this winter and that remains the case looking ahead (with EC Monthly offering some support to broad signals from latest GS5 ensembles mid-later Feb).
  20. Quite. I appreciate not all have access to EC-EPS clusters, but those who do will have seen the emerging signal for this not to necessarily be a 1-2 day 'toppler' affair, as some NCEP solutions touted.
  21. Hang about! That's totally incorrect. Indeed only a couple of days ago I *specifically* cautioned re possible longevity.Reason? Because we could see need for caution from the more pessimistic (i.e. colder for longer) EC-EPS and MOGREPS members. And we still do. Our story remains consistent: growing risk of a more potent, windy outbreak of cold weather; longevity, disruptiveness and scope of which continues to be very uncertain.
  22. Latest Exeter thoughts from modelling into 6+ days are: - NW broad flow expected to remain first few days of Feb: high to west, trough to E - Changeable conditions remain but with chance of quieter wx in south - Signs of anticyclonic influence becoming more prominent later into Feb (combined GloSea5/EC Monthly signal) and NW flow diminishing - However, this shift in pattern may not manifest as a very blocked scenario per se. Still v uncertain - Weak signals for MJO to enter Phase 6 early Feb - Weak signals for -ve NAO circa 10 days into Feb on - SSW signal remains below climatological n
  23. Don't get carried away though. The critical part of my post was regarding where we see any block and resultant broadscale flow/temperature regime. I can't stress that enough.
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