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fergieweather

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fergieweather last won the day on December 27 2016

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  1. ....and some very interesting ongoing signals for rest of Nov and 1st half of winter. Rest assured we have some very interesting model-watching coming our way :-) Enjoy.
  2. Ah, but still looks a pretty interesting winter period, for various reasons. Some key differences versus EC, but still quite distinct from the output we were looking at this time last year, for winter 15-16! November is always the more critical point when we expect (hope!) to see closer consensus between these models. Still a way to go before it's worthwhile hanging hat on any particular broad outcome for this winter.
  3. GloSea5 was out today. Quite a different take on things...
  4. Very interesting output, yes. But my firm advice would be to hold-off writing letters to Santa until we see the November EC output, plus wherever GloSea5 & MeteoFrance modelling leads us in the interim, be it consensual or not.
  5. Indeed it did. Essentially it runs an consistent story through N-D-J-F of +ve GPH/MSLP anomalies to NW/N of UK; -ve ones to S/SW.
  6. NB Signal for any early warming / reversal has waned recently. Next EC Seasonal output later this week may be instructive versus Glosea; ie if signs of -ve NAO into winter also turn less bullish versus last update.
  7. Hiya This paper worth a read. Available online in full:
  8. Relatively frequent, but any reversal of zonal winds associated with these (ie even temporarily) are rarities. There's a good case study & broader examination of these events in a paper online (I'd need to check the link/citation).
  9. Don't get too hyperventilated. Very early days. Bear in mind the *majority* signal is for a zonal flow up aloft (& probably westerly QBO into winter, despite some nearer-term complexities in lower strat). Whilst key seasonal output (GloSea5, EC Seasonal & now MeteoFrance ARPEGE-climate too ) concur on the notion of a winter (at least *initially*) prone to blocking, there's members of eg GloSea5 being run daily, so much water has yet to pass under this particular bridge. Whilst 60 yrs of QBO data is hardly anything in the grander historical record, the fact remains that behaviour this y
  10. Sorry for delay. The answer I'm given is yes, in so far as the human input (ie expert examination of component signals from the model and pattern recognition).
  11. A very good question. I will endeavour to source an answer for you.
  12. Hi - sorry, to clarify. I'm talking about 10hPa, 60 deg. N model signal through November. An interesting possibility so early in the season, but not (currently) a majority ENS solution.
  13. reversal at 10hPa, but signal very tentative at present.
  14. See http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-014-2155-z Huge uncertainty however, re scope of any teleconnection for UK winter 16-17 (models still yet to confidently resolve re ENSO neutral or, as per BOM-POAMA, a weak Modoki La Nina... thus influence on seasonal modelling will vary at this juncture). Whilst we see some current similarities emerging in latest ECMWF, GloSea5 and CFSv2 output for Dec-Feb, we can't yet be too clever on understanding exactly why they are returning the present signals. QBO situation also yet to be resolved with confidence, of course, albeit interesting
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