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fergieweather

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fergieweather last won the day on December 27 2016

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  1. It's specifically re modified fields. Not forecast rationale (we communicate that publically already). Cheers.
  2. I know: but it's moderated etc. Facebook isn't.
  3. The licensing agreement with UKMO, negotiated a few years ago, is for sharing selected items that help offer technical context to forecasts, but social media growth means a risk of items disseminated without permission or proper context and thus possibly not in spirit of original forecast thinking. For now, I'm afraid that means no further sharing of that material aside from more limited ones through twitter, given sensitivities. Back to model discussion.
  4. Sorry - apparently it was copied to a Facebook group without permission. We had this issue a year or two ago. Thus removed to prevent further reproduction with risk of changed context.
  5. Snap! Agreed Nick. It's clearly some modern mythology.
  6. Meteorological trade runs 24-7 even over Christmas(!); the satellite data keeps churning; many aircraft providing data... etc. I've never heard such a 'theory' espoused anywhere before.
  7. What's unsavoury? 18z GFS offers one heck of a chilly block. And effectively dry. Bear in mind 850hPa temps unrepresentative of surface temps in those set-ups (subsidence inversion/continued radiative cooling). Fog could be a real issue however, especially if there's any longevity of continental slack flow and resultant import of higher aerosol levels. NB Note v different sense of direction further into 12z GFS PARA. Fine balance... etc.
  8. By T+192, 23 members support the flatter solution; 15 centre the high effectively over the UK; and 13 offer a more amplified solution with high pressure to the NW and a markedly colder NE'ly flow.
  9. See edit above Steve (NB doesn't alter median temps - remaining below avg)
  10. But 12z ECMWF DET sits well in the ensemble spread, with below average temperatures from start of Jan on throughout it's 15d run... why discount it? It's as plausible as any other solution at the moment. EDIT Whoops sorry, was reverted to 00z ENS - yes, 12z milder end of ENS.
  11. We shall see how it unfolds. ECMWF Monthly also raises +ve MSLP/GPH anomaly to NW (S of Greenland) into week 2; interestingly it supports GloSea5 on broad idea of a colder than average spell much/most of Jan, with varying NW/N/NE flow (perhaps E'ly later in month); even by week 4 with unusually prominent -ve temp anomalies for southern UK (given the lead time). One way or another, model output looks an awful lot more interesting versus this time a week ago.
  12. PS What is worth noting re UKMO is that the GM isn't modified at Ops Centre beyond T+132. That's considered a reasonable cut-off point for fair medium range steer, in terms of tweaking additional fields such as frontal positions/shortwave elements & associated upper forcing/ppn/cloud cover/ etc.
  13. The 12z DET sat comfortably within scope of 00z clusters/ENS. Just one of a few potential outcomes retrospectively but let's see where it sits versus ensembles this time. Where ECMWF monthly heads tonight is of particular interest, given paucity of signals beyond Jan week 1 in last Thursday's outing... Incidentally, someone posted along lines of UKMO-GM being of no credence at T+144, but I've never seen evidence for that published or cited elsewhere.
  14. The 00z EC ENS to d15 and clusters look anything but mundane to me. Markedly below average TMax against climatology (taking Reading as an example).
  15. Yes, +ve MSLP centred primarily to W or SW of UK, maintaining temps below average; but some members shift it N, hence risk of much colder flow.
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