anvilhead

Have you guys ever pondered putting on an afternoon lesson somewhere where the rest of us could come along and attempt to be shown some of the bigger picture ? .. I think theres a lot of people who'd pay good money for this... just a sugestion. sam

jeesus flip! I dont know what the windspeeds will be over the north on the 18z gfs, but it looks pretty potent.. I make that a mean wind speed on the north coast of Ireland, and then across scotland of 60mph, gusts to over 100mph and probably then some ..

looks like its shifting south on the 12Z gfs going on the jetstream digging more beforehand - I'm normaly wrong though!

I agree with you RE rank for storms Paul! One thing I've noticed over the last few years is that storms have no problem exploding when they get into the north sea - its more about synoptics than sst's for the channel. There must be some reason why the dividing line is in the same place every time and we dont get a look in -

wondering if thats a wave forming on the cold front heading up past brest - might make things interesting if so .. storms for me by the way, although I love snow

Yes he did.

hey all As I ride out the fifth non continental style summer, cant help wondering about the temperature anomolies around us - i Just stumbled on the met office model's prediction for twice the co2 as we have now, and its not a million miles away in principle to the 'weather' the planet has expierenced in the last 5 years imo - http://www.sciencephoto.com/media/160492/enlarge. Saying that, I'm still yet to be convinced that warming is happening, but the anomolous nwerly every summer for us is making me worry! sam

Keep us updated S4Lancia

wow that looks potent!

Nice intense line showing up over Lyme bay/Chesil at the moment...

seems to be some development south of lyme bay, and south of the iow - probably nothing, but you never know -

boo! I give up with the UK!

the wrfnmm on metieociel (usualy pretty acurate) looks pretty promissing http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php

06z rolling out. Seems to be stuck on T120, but we're not a million miles away from a short lived spanish plume imo -

interesting though that the 20c+ 850 spike on one of the 12z ensemble members ties in with 15c 850's on the 18z gfs op at 240 Hours -

Coast what radar are you using ?

seems to be cells kicking off now in the south - presumably due to the increase in cape and misture pooiling where the winds are converging - the WRF NMM was predicting something like 700kj cape in a narrow region stretching NE up the country for 16:00 onwards - Sam

cells near oxford and reading!, one further south just north of Salisbury (Acording to raintoday radar) - is it kicking off?!!!!!!!

haha. i that a cell going up directly above Salisbury ?? :o

i'm going to take a stab at some activity forming roughly around the salisbury area a bit later thisafternoon - dont take my forecasts seriousely whatever you do though!

seems to be something heading for the IOW right now, doesnt look massively potent, but its building

Ah yeah I can see why.. 3 flights would be too much for me anyway - It takes enough out of me just to get on one .. maybe oneday when (if) I've got the time to make my way there though.

well, hopefully the less chance of imports, the less chance of a decayed anvil canopy destroying our insolation this side of the channel ... Tomorrow evening still looks promissing to me -

Lol. Yeah odd for pulse storms - I'd love to see it though. If I had the money I'd come along Massively off topic Paul, but how about a 1 off chase to see this semi-permament storm - from what I can tell where the river enters the lake the riverbed decomposes so much that the methane creates a fixed updraft - sailors have used the storm as a beacon for hundreds of years - one of the places I need to see before I pop it. http://boingboing.net/2009/08/24/venezuelas-continuou.html Sorry al! - im back on topic now! Sam

I dont think you'll need lightning triggers! Sam