weathergeek
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31 minutes ago, Cambrian said:
Good morning everyone. Hard frost here, a cleansing glaze of white, slowly picking up from -4.5 degrees, crisp with a gin clear sky. It feels like a reset button has been pushed.
Cold for the next 10 days on the 0z ECM ensemble, temperatures settling back to a couple of degrees either side of freezing, this chart is for Birmingham. With the build up of cold over the land in a slack setup, within just a few weeks of the solstice, we can perhaps expect more of a downward drift than shown.
EC46 temperature anomalies from last night were supportive of a long cold spell, 27th-4th, 4th-11th. The Northern European cold anomaly now extends out over the Atlantic for week 1. The above average signal has now been removed from the UK and Ireland for week 3, 11th-18th.
The heights anomalies maintain the Scandinavian - Europe trough for the next two weeks, though weaker in week 2.
The pressure anomalies indicate a general northeasterly flow for week 1, around the northwest flank of the European trough, then more easterly.
Week 2 is more suggestive of a developing battleground setup with lower pressure to the south and west, a waning of the European trough and a build in pressure further south into Scandinavia, bringing a more easterly flow.
Set cold. And with moisture never too far from the UK and Ireland, an extremely interesting couple of weeks in store. Broad brush I know, but one of those rare times that we can expect at least a lengthy spell of frosty weather, and from the basic temperature and pressure profiles being consistently outputted, there’s a very reasonable chance of wintry episodes too.
Not very often with this marvellous Saturday morning pastime that I can say that! Have a great day.
Great explanatory breakdown and also in layman's terms too, for the likes of me so thank you, much appreciated!!
Year after year I see on here: "We just need to get the cold in first..." and that's what we now have! And with its longevity looking more and more likely!
It feels a million miles away from the November westerly-whacks and almost at the flick of a switch! As much as I'd love some early Advent snow, I'm not going to get hysterical about it just yet, I'm excited enough just to be getting some good cold this week with the potential for us tapping into even deeper cold thereafter!!
(PS - btw, I also love your opening paragraph, very poetic!
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20 minutes ago, Fergpfc said:Hi Matt just want to thank you and so many others on here that contribute to the fantastic forum the wife is writing this for me as I have the same problem of trying to write on the phone due to severe arthritis in my hand and fingers from too many years bricklaying. I'm sure some of you have noticed me kicking a like which is the best I can do unfortunately to join in with the conversation but once again thank you to you all. I'm old enough to remember many snowy times down here on the south coast and I really feel that this winter is going to bring back some fantastic memories. Good luck to you all north south east and west
Hi
just wanted to mention that maybe you could try using a stylus pen for your phone keyboard or maybe even a 'speech to text' function, if your phone has that? Or getting a phone that does (new Xmas pressie?!
) 'Speech to text' can have frustrating issues sometimes but you could try writing them in a separate document, giving you the chance to edit any odd bits and then copy and paste into a forum reply!! Good luck!!
(PS - Mods, sorry its not weather related but as there could be a few on here with similar issues, I just wanted to offer some advice as it would be a shame to hear less from these experienced members!!
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2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:
Early thoughts personally are that Oct through Jan look a tad cooler than average (signal for high pressure in Jan but fairly cyclonic in the Oct-Dec period). Signal for a mild February (classic +AO) and then dry again in March.
Yes, although I've come on here every winter for over a decade, reading the posts in the hope of snow (still wouldn't say I can 100% read the models with accuracy yet!), I do wonder if this winter we should be wishing for mild to save everyone's energy bills!!! But I know that in my heart of hearts I'll still wish for snow, even if it's just a few bursts here and there!!
🌨❄
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13 hours ago, Sunny76 said:
It snow in London in late October 2008. I remember it feeling very cold and unusual. Light flurries was all that fell, but this was the precursor to the next 4-5 years of mainly colder winters in the U.K.
It snowed big time in early April of 2008 too so only 6mths between snow events that year! I was 8mths pregnant with my daughter, walking through a fair layer of snow... a month later she was born into very high temps!!
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Loving the charts this evening! Lots to play for - even if it didn't all happen quite as we're seeing it now, it feels good to be seeing all these potentials!! So much better than looking at never ending Atlantic trains and rainy, mild dross!!!
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On 09/10/2021 at 21:34, Don said:
I was referring to what happens regardless whether it's a mild or cold winter, the media will still promote doom and gloom! I.e. if a mild winter saves us from gas shortages, there will be something else! This is why I don't bother with the news now!
Yes doom & gloom and scaremongering seem to have taken over from the old fashioned ways of journalism in years past!!
Either way the weather will be "wrong"
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We hunt, search and watch ALL WINTER for every miniscule synoptic to be in place and for them to all align in perfect precision..... and miss out nearly every time!!
Fast forward to April, exactly 2 weeks after a very hot 20c+ day, with no searching or wanting, we wake-up to random, unexpected and heavy snowfall!! Absolutely crazy!!
It's my youngest's 7th birthday today and he's not best pleased because he was looking forward to going to a new playground that'll now be wet but I've told him this might be the only year he ever gets to have a snowball fight on his birthday so we're trying to make the most of our changed plans!!
For those still loving the snow in Spring then I hope you have a lovely time in it! I'm guessing it'll melt pretty quickly?!
Now let's hope that in another 2wks we have a sudden flip around to 20c+ again and can enjoy the garden and getting my veg growing outside!!xx
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Really interesting reading about people's theories on the changes in April and the historical knowledge some of you have of past seasons!
I can admit to being one of those who looks for Spring warmth sunshine by mid Feb! But obviously this does have to be balanced with some rain and cooler days to stay in tune with nature and its wildlife and growing plants/food etc. I guess random frosts will get more attention due to the sudden damage they can cause in just one night - even last Spring, in all its glorious sunny warmth, that late frost in the 3rd week of May happened just after I'd put out my tomatoes and cucumbers! Thankfully, despite lots of frost-burnt leaves, thankfully I only lost one plant! My potato plants looked awful but I decided to leave them and see and thankfully they grew back and didn't suffer too badly!
I have always worried when I see plant budding early, even sometimes in late winter and knowing we could still have snow and severe frosts that could wipe them out....
I know nature is very adaptive but obviously it's still a concern
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I haven't posted for a while either! Just popped on here to see (hope!!) if the MOD thread could give ANY indication of nicer weather that I wasn't seeing in Meto Updates, lol!!
After such an amazing start to the week with all that lovely warmth and sunshine, the Easter weekend ends with such dismal I absolutely love snow but my fave time for it is December, followed by Jan then Feb - after that, I'm on the hunt for Spring and warmer, dryer weather!! Ah well, we were spoilt last Spring so you can't have it all but still, this cold spell is very unseasonal!!!
Hope everyone is well xx
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Oh Tom I'm so sorry to come here and read this today and the added tragedy of you having been stuck in and unable to visit in the last year is just heartbreaking
I even wonder if I had Covid back in Sept/Oct 2019, I was ill for 5-6wks and took another 3wks to fully regain energy. It started out of the blue with a cough like I've never had before, normally I'd develop a cough after having had a cold and the cough develops to clear the lungs of excess mucous but this was just a sudden cough that was so bad I could barely move or speak or else I'd have a harsh coughing fit that would just go on and on.... this then changed to congestion on top about 2wks later and then to bronchitis. Obviously I'll never be able to prove it but it seems really strange and they know that Covid was in the environment here before we were testing and naming it as such.
I really hope this lovely weather we've been having continues to bring some light and warmth to an otherwise dull and cold (and wet!) winter. I love snow and have enjoyed the 1-2 days I got but I'm more than ready for Spring to come early and lift off this heavy winter, lockdown, wet and dull blanket!!xx
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It's been soooo lovely down here in the southeast! No coat and feeling the sun on my face whilst out in the garden is just what I needed after a long, dull and wet winter in lockdown - apart from the 2 fun snow days we had! I'd love it to stay like this now as I have so many garden projects to finish and a new veggie growing season to start but as you've said, we could have further snow yet!!x
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Had some snow overnight so now have a covering on roads, grass and all and been snowing this morning with a few heavier periods but mostly very light. I think the heavier snow has been just to my north according to the radar and what people from Surbiton and Wimbledon are saying! Meto had me down for light snow and sunshine so I'm glad to see that's being held off and the snow seems to keep coming!!x
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9 minutes ago, Bradley in Kent said:
A good day for snow lovers in the Maidstone area, in fact, more has come down today!
Been very cold all day, where even snow settling between bricks or on car doors has stayed put; normally those melt a few hours after.
Had a couple hours of moderate snow this evening with bigger flakes and have at long last reached 5cm (the threshold for that amber warning).
Everything is now properly covered, so I can now sign this off as a complete and successful snow event ❄
My sister in law lives near Maidstone and HATES snow - so she has a lot whilst I have barely any an hour away in Surrey - aarrgghh!!x
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Well after a very disappointing day with me constantly telling the kids "Don't worry, it's coming!", I'm DONE!!! Off to bed because I woke early as I was excited about today, lol! Meto has me down for light snow tomorrow evening and into Tuesday so I shall try to relax until then with much less expectation! See you for snow chasing tomorrow guys!!xx
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3 minutes ago, kold weather said:
Darcy was never forecasted to hit us at all...what we were always going to get was a wrap around feature from a weak low pressure that formed in the channel and then got absorbed by a new French low.
I think what might have happened is the LP feature ended up about 40-50 miles CLOSER to us, I noted that last night around 2am. What that did was delay the cold air wrapping around.
What was expected:
The models all expected the cold air to be in place by 4-6am originally. This would have meant that snow would have fallen earlier, settled earlier and started a feedback loop which ensured more and more fell as snow and then settle, and that would battle the temperature increases that you nearly always get in a stable 850hpa temperature set-up as you reach later morning hours
What happened in reality:
The cold air took a few hours longer to get down as everything was displaced a little NW, which meant a few hours longer of rain during what should have been optimal settling hours. So the feedback loop that was expected by the models never got going until the air was already starting to warm, which meant the feedback loop only really was able to get going where the precip was strong enough and intense enough to overwhelm the failed feedback loop.
Appreciate that explanation, thank you x
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Any ideas what has caused the frigid air getting delayed so much??!! That seems to be the main issue here and I think the coastal regions are only getting snow because it's heavier there so cooling the air at the same time?x
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I cannot believe how long this cold air from the East had been delayed... we were supposed supposed be below zero from early hours and it's still just above freezing here!!
Nothing much so far nr Epsom Surrey Temp was 1.5c at 8am, now 0.6c and falling but just had light blasts of light snow/graupel that have thawed between blasts!! Absolutely gutted and just hope that it increases as the day goes on although it's hard to have faith when something that had seemed so nailed on can fail so bad in the few hours before it was due!
Our one saving grace is that, unlike usually, this isn't one of those 1 in a winter chances that if you miss it, that's your luck gone... I still have snow forecast over today, tomorrow and Tuesday but again, hard to get excited atm.... x
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22 minutes ago, Julesthecat said:
Near Reigate. Still showing heavy snow. Meto app does chop and change a lot though - usually only of use for the next hour! I'm switching to look out the window now - quit while I'm ahead
Ahh i get what the RH is now! Thanks, that's interesting you're getting so much more than me (well via symbols on the app!), maybe elevation?!xx
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Is there a website that shows your local dp? My weather station doesn't have it?!xx
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41 minutes ago, Julesthecat said:
4.2C here now. Meto app had light snow from 3am - just changed back to heavy snow between 3am and 7am.
Whereabouts are you Jules? I'm in Surrey and mine has got worse now
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21 minutes ago, Ian Docwra said:
I lived in Ashtead from October 1981 to 1986. I recall the 1981/2 winter there fondly.
I wasn't here then but a kid growing up in 80s winters on Box Hill - so you can see how the obsession started, lol!!!x
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I remember an event a few years ago where roads were treacherous with ice because the grit put down had been washed clean away by heavy rain before it turned to snow, I think the same is going to happen this time too!!
My 90% heavy snow from 3am-6am has changed to light snow from 4am and carrying on all day with between 40-60ish% chances (on Meto app) so bit of a downgrade but I'm aware that's not fixed!
I plan on getting an earlier night tonight so I can wake earlier tomorrow and see what's happening outside the window!! I know I'll wake early wondering anyway, lol!!! Good luck everyone!xx
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Lovely looking charts although I do have a bit of concern that what was possible Snow for Sat then moved to Sunday and is now Mon afternoon and into Tuesday so is still at D5 when I was hoping to feel a bit more concrete by tomorrow but now won't feel confident until about Sat/Sun for Mon/Tues!!
My brother (another snow fan) @Chertseystreamer79 sent me some great pics yesterday as it was 12yrs since the foot dumping of snow we had in Feb 2009!!! It was mad!! And we also had snow a year ago yesterday too because we met up Box Hill where knew it would be a bit deeper!xx
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3 hours ago, 80sWeather said:
Mine don’t work either. I’ve an iPhone what is your device?
S20, didn't work on S9 or S7 either!x
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SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on
in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion
Posted
Just had a flurry of a snizzle-snowflake mix here in Ashtead Surrey.... and now stopped again! As @Hotspur62 and others have pointed out - a Round 2 and colder air with it looks good in a couple of hours!!
