crimsonp
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Posts posted by crimsonp
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FI on the GFS has been very very messy over the past few days....... never say die, i say!
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anyone seen this yet?
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so todays models are totally conflicting with yesterdays awesomeness but i saw a vid earlier on the beebs weather thingy and that dude who looks like gordon brown (a bit), phillip avery is it? well he was saying that next week could swing either way, i.e. high pressure from scandi or low pressure from the atlantic. in other words they don't know yet!!! i thought it was a tad pointless them posting it but hey!!
their latest vid shows lots of high pressure coming from scandi over to us well into next week so it seems that the beeb have made their minds up!! obviously they haven't studied todays models hahaha!!
keep your chins up guys and to all those who rant about the ranters, isn't that the premise of all discussion?
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region 1 eh? at least we aren't number twos!!
most forecasters are now saying that the cold weather could last a lot longer then first anticipated, i bet all the comments on this thread over the festive season are all about rain!! hope not......
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nothing so far here in the land that time forgot!!! personally, i'm pinning my hopes on next week when that scandi high kicks in!! fingers crossed, eh?
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So, who's that sole member in live chat, chatting to?
they will more then likely be a moderator.....
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did i miss something? what's all this about the ECM?
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just catching up on some posts..... i don't think i've seen steve murr so excited!!! G.P.s' video has juiced everybody and the models are finding their way!! pub run now!!
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is it me or does this look a bit freaky?
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awesome presentation G.P.!!! very professional approach and easily understandable, even to a layman like me
already feeling the change in season here in the north west..... you can "smell" the winter rolling in
thanks alot and keep up the good work!
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FAX says YES, YES, a million times YES
yes to what I.F.?
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ok, so judging from ive seen of the gfs over the past few days, the cold snap which we see over this coming week should dissapate as that lp from canada merges with the scandi lp but more low pressure will build up again next week over canada bringing us back to what we are all looking forward to this week!!
this is the latest gfs which shows how it all begins again..... FI i know but hey!
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For newer members its always important to view the outputs from the NH. This gives a much better idea of how our patterns in Europe are greatly effect by events thousands of miles away.
So take a look at this UKMO output for 120hrs:
You can see there a shortwave off the tip of Greenland, further west low pressure moving out of Canada.
So we need something to help remove that shortwave and build pressure over Greenland, this is where our friendly developing low to the west comes in.
You can see this deepening and heading n/ne as it does so it helps higher pressure to develop to its east in Greenland this acts as a forcing mechanism on the shortwave as this gets ejected se the link up occurs with the Arctic high.
http://www.meteociel...0&ech=6&carte=1
Its essential we get this link up and its essential to see that deep Canadian low verify but just as important is its track up the west of Greenland, this is something to keep an eye on in future outputs.
hey, thanx for this!
now i feel like I've turned a corner!!! so let me get this straight, this is only going with how I've picked up tips on how to read the charts (a bit)....
going off the GFS 18Z
we have low pressure over Canada swirling round build up high pressure and pushing it north over Greenland which in turn drags low pressure over Scandinavia and the northerly flow of the scandi low sits over us by Friday but by Tuesday the two lows have dissipated the high pressure and joined together, leaving a milder westerly for the south and a northerly for the rest of us, leaving more settled conditions.
Thursday sees the same pattern again, low over Canada pushing high pressure back up towards Greenland which squeezes low pressure back towards Scandinavia and this low pressure over Scandi is what is swinging the cold air over the U.K. by Saturday (8th)? (breath Pete, breath!!)
now i know that the tighter the iso's get the windier it gets but what i really don't quite get yet is how to tell if it's going to rain?
i know people have been poo pooing the GFS but as i have often said to the my kids, "expect the worse, everything else is bonus!" hahaha!
wait!? i've worked out the rain fall thing!! hahaha! it's amazing what happens when one just thinks for a minute!!!
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G.P. must be feeling a whole bunch of pressure riding on his shoulders at the moment hahaha! would be cool to know what his thoughts are with these runs we've been getting?
i'm learning all the time about the charts but one thing i don't quite get is how can you tell if it's gonna rain/snow just from a few wavey lines? i get the the way LP and HP circulate but how can one tell? if i knew then i would be sitting on a gold mine!!
please someone enlighten me without sending me to the "learning center", i've been there and it scares me so! thanks team
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cold, frosty, slight fog, hazy sunshine and an ene breeze
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we are on the 18Z aren't we?
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When your tongue gets stuck to the lamppost?
they have actually made a third installment to this film, i bet you can never guess what it's called?
And mine's all fallen out!
haha!! tis true pete! when a cold winter is due my hair really does get darker!!! i'm like a stoat but in reverse and much much larger
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my hair has gone darker!!!
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Hi can someone just give me a brief summary on whats happening as i dont understand the models
there is cold weather coming from the east which should effect the north of england, scotland and wales at first. chances o f some wintery showers and it's possible that it could last for a fair bit!!
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i can't believe he was charging 6 quid for this!!! must have lost lost his sponsors after his 11/12 forecast......?
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The GFS accumulated snow depths can be a bit iffy - we show them on the chart viewer and on the snow risk map page (here), but always mark them as experimental as they can go a bit nuts!
my wife must be experimental too!!
the major difference i have noticed in the past couple of runs is the way the ridge over greenland keeps fluctuating. i'm not really sure if this is a normal thing from run to run but all i do know is if that trends to stay there in the next few runs then we should have more and more cold air sucked in from the east..... am i right in thinking that team?
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Backtrack do you mind putting up the link for that chart you posted? I've never seen that before. Thanks.
i think that you can find it on joe b astardis' facebook page.
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morning all!
looking at the gfs 06Z and i have to say.... man alive!!!! snowmageddon as of t+192!!! and it seems to lasting for a few days so far.... but, of course, you all can see that your selves hahaha...... why, oh why, did i bother posting?
i have a feeling that the 12Z will be a let down but, hey, that's mostly why we all tune in
(not to be let down i hasten to add but the fun of the chase! )
now i feel like I've turned a corner!!! 
North West England Regional Thread
in Regional
Posted
we could get some snow/sleet on the leading edge of this up coming rain that we're due..........