jonnybradley

Wednesdays NOAA 500mb anomaly 6-10 day chart support the continued Euro heights, even if it is pushing slightly further south, and an interesting picture up stream. Looking forward to tonight’s charts.

Help me out here guys? How dose this look picture look compare to what the 500mb anomalies are showing for this period, re John's PDF from yesterday? any thoughts

Quick question from noob You guys have been calling this patten change for a while from the 500mb charts, right and these still support the patten but are now a lot closer in time. Just wondering how you read the same charts look forward now. Are they supporting the patten to stick around longer term? Or do these charts become less reliable until things settle down a bit more? I think I saw GP eluding to the fact that longer forecast 500mb still show the pattern sticking. Any thoughts? Thanks

GFS wed 12z t66 GFS having a go at push some of that Siberian high towards the pole. Not really any heights in the high pressure (is that right?) and gets pushed back south into Siberia towards the end of the run. Could the PV be weakening going into the new year? Jon p.s sorry if thats wrong about the heights need to read up on it me thinks!

Thanks chionomaniac, No heights on these, but clearly show the High being pushed back south That is the part of Mr Kelling's analysis I found hard to grasp, with the jet running like it is the Canadian model seemed a bit to eager to push the high through it? (god I hope that made sense:-) But as ever thank you to all for you informative posts, really appreciate. Jon Edit 00:06 just meant to add, will be looking for 'wave pattern repeats', although it fails this time clear to see that it would change the situation in the Atlantic (right?)

Thanks Chio, I thought that might be the case. Thanks for explaining tho, still try to learn

chio, weren't you flat dismissing the 2 high meeting up last week. In fact you had some very harsh words to say about somebody that was looking at this as a possible out come. Are we getting there via a different route or has the picture change enough to allow this train of thought?

What is interesting is the beeb calling this system from Sunday onwards. There forecasters urging caution at this range as you would expect, but unusual for them to highlight a potential feature this far out.

Yep spot on kmanmx. Sorry that last part wasn't meant to be taken to seriously. Saw it on the weather-forecast.com site, there 06 posting. Think they may have been on the GFS ott juice? (not certain they use GFS but I suspect) As you say any snow fall is subject to the path of that low on Friday, which clearly is some way off being know at this point.

Interesting that all the models seemed in agreement about the Thursday/Friday out in low res but are playing out slightly different scenarios now the feature is into high res. Really is overload for a noob here. I keep on seeing people say "due to the complexity" of Fridays system. Could anyone elaborate a bit more on the complex factors involved? Would be nice to try to understand and follow some of these factors building into it. Many thanks Jon p.s I saw a forecast for Chamonix in the Alps today, is curently perdicting over 1m of snow for the 24hr period over Fri - clearly subject to change....

As kold weather said its 72-96 when this storm has been on the charts since t192? For sure I have enjoyed watching how the models have shown this storm, but would be very happy to see it not happen! 1 run is a bit to early to dismiss it me thinks, but I do hope your right

Unless you got a diffrent link dude (please can I have it) there still at 00z. It's the 12z operational that lost the Fri low? They should publish the ensemble in a while. But still fair point 8/52 on the 00z to the 12z operational with a massive downgrade

Thanks Nick, will be checking those out later. Of course if you get the chance your self... have found your analysis of these very helpful over the past couple of weeks

Do the ECM ensembles update at 12z? Anybody got a link for the ECM ensembles, would be intresting to see what they think

Thanks Winters tale, very interesting update from Simon again. Noob warning!! Again guys please correct if I am barking up the wrong tree here. * Think I posted a couple of days ago that it is hard to see past Fridays storm (would this be where FI is at the mo?). I agree with Simon that the models are having a bit of a time sort out the period after Fri. As damianslaw points out, will be hard to pin the placement of Fri low till Tue has blown trough and Fridays is a bit closer to our shores. I think it will be interesting to see how these lows interact with the high in the Atlantic and I assume this will effect the pattern of things to come. * Very interesting times, certainly a lot more going on than when I started watching here back in mid Nov! Thanks All, keep up the good discussions. Jon

Thanks Jackone for the forecast. Very much appreciated!!! Just wanted to post this from http://www.weather-forecast.com/ of there 06am 11/12 forecast for cham. Now I must say that they keep changing there minds on what will happen after Tuesday but it this came of!!! The freezing level drops right down after Friday as well. Thanks all Jon edit: ps sorry bit of topic, but intrest for those that live in the North and Scotland http://whitelines.mp...evis-range.html

Yes very interesting. The developments after Fridays low, wherever it tracks, do seem to be the time frame to watch at the moment and as we can see from the last few pages here is causing some strong debate.

Am scared, after 2 weeks or more of model chaos and 2 of the bigens are say the same thing, what gives.

Just been having a quick look at the output. Lot of talk about this Low feature on 12z ECM and GFS @ t192. Made me scratch my head a bit that the 2 models give such a similar output for this time frame yet by t240 they go of in such different directions? Although I can't say as I understand ECM's transition from t192 - 216 - 240, looks a bit odd to me? Well still some time off, but def one to keep an eye out for, especially for myself living on the south coast and with a wee coach trip into France planned on this date!!! Thanks all Jon p.s what the betting that GFS 18z tries to bring back the euro high for this time frame as it did last night and Monday night?

kumquat, I am not going to argue with you but would I be right in saying that these lows really only need to move a few hundred miles north or south to effect what happens with the Azores high. You say we need it, but this is subjective. Yes in the long but the Pyrenees needs snow at high levels and there best shot now is for one of these lows to move slightly south???

Don't give up yet Nick. I posted a similar thing on Monday night in the Alps forum only to see Azores high staying put in nearly all the models on Tuesday. GFS really still can't make its mind up past T+96 still. I hope this is just a blip and not the real outcome Jon Edit Could this bring some NW wetness to Europe and keep the high at bay?

Again as always please correct me!! I see what your say here but isn't the PV much more intense than last year? From what others have put I not really sure that we can see any blocking in the near term with such a strong PV. Sure things can change quick but such a strong PV would seem difficult to move quickly. No? Jon

http://www.chamonet.com/reports/news/20-ski-resorts-open-in-the-alps-this-weekend.html Not looking so bad just now!!! Meto have issued high avalanche warning across the French alps till the pack stabilizes. So be careful out there! carinthian posted on Tue? that there was no snow yet in Katschberghohe(?) where he is. Any body got updates for the eastern alps? Jon

Whats the score with that upstream Nick? Not seen you post anything on that for a while so guessing there is nothing to report in terms of potential developments? Jon ps Had a look at CFS earlier. One of its runs t+700 and something it put a high pressure in to the vp (1050mb?), pushing in from the Bering Straits right into the North pole. lol really put the cat amongst the pigeons, if only.... shame I didn't save it, made my day

Still a bit nervous about the Christmas/New years period I must say. Sorry to be down beat but with the setup that we have at the moment this weeks snow may have to last a while. With a very untrained eye on the models, they mostly seem to point to high pressure building up over Europe again. Hopefully its only short lived am heading to Chamonix 17th Dec. Fingers crossed