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TomIOW
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Posts posted by TomIOW
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I read the IPCC climate change report and came here thinking I would find an intellectual conversation on the subject. Oh how wrong I was.....
Instead I am frankly astonished, this threat reads like half a bunch of tin foil hat wearing climate change deniers. I find it bizarre and staggering that with an overwhelming majority of the worlds experts in the relevant fields stating the facts, that some people deny its happening. Especially in this forum of all places. I suppose a similar thing would have happened if the internet was available when flat earth believers were more abundant in society.
Don't even start your pathetic argument that climate change is not man made. I genuinely think people do not have a simple grasp on time. The earth naturally warms and cools over many millennia, not 50 years!!! And just because you are not waking up, looking out of the window and seeing extreme weather on a daily basis, does not mean that it is not happening.
The following graph is based on the comparison of atmospheric samples contained in ice cores and more recent direct measurements, provides evidence that atmospheric CO2 has increased since the Industrial Revolution. Taken directly from Vostok ice core data.
Note the previous warming and cooling phases have closely matched the CO2. You have to be certified insane to think that this is not the reason why the earth is dramatically warming and being irreversibley damaged at the same time. Incidently if your argument that the earth goes in cycles then we should actually be in the cool part not the warm part!
The met office produced this handy video today that was probably targeted at people who are struggling with the concept of visualizing temperatures from man made climate change (my 5 year old daughter quickly grasped the concept so I have faith fully grown educated adults will be able to).
Coral reef decimation, ocean acidification, melting glaciers will be the least of your worries. Once tipping point has been reached, permafrosts will contribute to gas emissions at an uncontrollable rate. Even if its not you, or your children, it will certainly be your childrens children that suffer. But I guess as long as you can smugly say that the scientists got it wrong by 5 or 10 years, you won't really care about the mass migrations, disease, food shortages and endless other list of problems that will become very real.
The problem with the human race is that if its not effecting you personally, at this very moment in time, then who the hell cares!!
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I am driving from the Isle of Wight to Rochester in Kent tonight for work in the morning. Heading off at 6pm tonight. Is this a good idea?
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i have my christmas works do on monday evening in newport on the isle of wight. I was going to get a taxi home but looking at this chart I might just flap my arms and get blown home.
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all much further south and not as strong on the gfs 18z
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also on the isle of wight and have to drive from cowes to shanklin for work on monday morning, should be interesting
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hoping the IOW gets something out of this we have been completely dry so far.
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no estofex tonight? would have thought it be out by now.
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Our friends at The Daily Express are at it again...... https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/360856487490379776/photo/1
I like to think the people that write these read the forums and are actually just brilliant trolls.
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It is very very unlikely that there will be any thundery activity in Devon unless the models are miles out with locations.
Whilst the atmosphere is volatile, there is nothing showing thundery activity over the West or South West.
The latest NAE shows minimal rain, let alone thunder. Still, only the radar will have a true grip on this.
Am i reading/looking at the wrong chart? i Thought this was the NAE. I live on the Isle of Wight and that does not look like minimal rain for us and the south coast.
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best fi ever. britain would melt. big plume!
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looking forward to tomorrow, I moved from the isle of wight to the outskirts of dundee a couple of months ago and this by far looks like the best chance for snowmageddon since moving here. bring it on
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Think I might have to hit the beach on sunday at this rate
Warm spell still very much there on the 06Z gfs -
12z has the low ever so slightly delayed but further south, crazy run
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So it wasn't even given a battering during the 13th to 14th of november 2009 storm? There were gusts over 70mph on the coasts that day. This coming windy spell doesn't look as bad as then.
lol reading your posts is quite funny, no matter what anyone says you seem to try and argue the other way. This coming windy spell will be worse than that looking at the 10m wind charts with funnelling effect from the solent I expect there to be at least 70mph gusts if not more. this is backed up by the fact that the Met O graphics has st. catherines point with 68mph monday night and they are allways under what actually materialises. Thursday into Friday has even stronger winds forecast.
For your location you are correct, it probably won't be as bad in Wiltshire, you are inland. But I would bet a large amount of money on the conditions here being awful. This is a cumulative effect that from monday night the winds will never really drop below 30mph.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs335.gif As the reds and oranges show on monday at 21z the extreme south coast, Isle of Wight and south east will get some very high sustained winds and higher gusts. I am not comparing this to last week accross scotland and north england, I also expect them to take the brunt in the upcoming stormy spells, however it will still be pretty wild down here.
http://www.wetterzen...s/Rmgfs1295.gif friday at 15z I have NEVER seen winds that high for my location. this coming spell DOES look worse than the 13th and 14th of november 2009, just have a flick through the model archive and look at how much tighter the isobars are and how much lower the pressure is this time.
As always though, this is only going on what is currently being predicted and I expect there to be changes!
Edit: 12z coming out so links will change
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I live on the Isle of Wight and have been keeping my eye on this for the last 6 days. I'm a big girls blouse when it comes to rough ferries and I'm unfortunate enough to be on a course in Southampton on Monday and Tuesday, I have booked a hotel lol.
Going to try and skulk back in the gap of less windy weather between wednesday and thursday night.
Really surprised at the lack of severe warning, having watched the models for the last 7 years this will be a real battering for the extreme south coast of the like that hasn't been seen in a number of years.
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Thanks very much guys appreciate the info!!!
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Complete novice, so don't want anything ridiculously expensive, what sort of things would you guys recommend/use yourself? Just want something to put in the back garden and have the data on my computer. Thanks!
Warm spell still very much there on the 06Z gfs
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by TomIOW
This is the ECM 12z ensemble for my part of the world in Cowes on the Isle of Wight. I have been following the charts for around 20 years (since the BBC forum days but I lurk more than post) and it is VERY uncommon to see so much agreement so far out of sustained heat at the height of summer. Yes there are less hot members but there is an undeniable trend to a potentially very hot plume towards the end of the forecast period.