TobyT
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Posts posted by TobyT
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Just had another short sharp snow shower here just East of Fakenham North Norfolk
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Around 3" of snow cover here this morning in North Norfolk -5.1 on my weather station sun just come out more coud looming
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Just started snowing here I'm in a village approx 7 miles East of Fakenham. Hope you all see some acton over the next few days.
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Almost unbroken sunshine here today form start to finish, friday was pretty decent too, Saturday was misty then grey overcast sky's all day, here hoping we get some breaks in the cloud in the coming week as winds freshen from the NE with cloud off the north sea.
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Thanks guys for all your hard work time and effort put into your forecast..
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Temps here at 11.30 am 8.9c and an hour later down to 3.9c recovered slightly to 4.3c as of 13.30 rainband has cleared cleared through
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Just started snowing here, large flakes moderate getting heavy and settling on all surfaces 0.5c
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Keep it as it is it works on the whole and would be empty in winter without the coldies input, in summer it can be very sparse and would just end up much the same.
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ECM now shows a totally different outcome,you couldn't make it up I have never know so many mixed signals and to be honest I just cant say what we will be getting this coming weekend all I can say is it looks interesting and I feel something is brewing, I am keeping a check on hight rises to the NE as I have a feeling this is where we may well be heading, the models have been hinting at this for a few days now as shown on the GFS P
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We are still heading in the right direction as far as I am concerned this morning, its all falling into place and as always in these situations there are different solutions offered up by the various models but the broad picture remains very positive, If we don't quite get the goodies this time around I don't think we will have to wait long for our luck to change, you only have to look at the whole NH pattern to see that.
Keep the faith and enjoy the ride.
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So, ECM is currently failing to play ball: cold but crisp for a few days then a hasty breakdown rather than the snowiest of GFS, especially GFS P which is pretty remarkable. Am I right in thinking that GFS P will be their new gold standard model run in 2015?
It seems strange to be in a position where the GFS is the most mid-Atlantic blocked output compared to ECM which rushes back to zonality.
Pattern changes are rarely successfully picked up on by outputs and they do this yo-yoing. I cannot see how the evolution on ECM from T168 to T192 to T216 is occurring. They have a LP west of the Azores which breaks through to the north of Scotland at T240 very very fast? It's odd to see a LP coming from that deep south. On the GFS at the same timescale the low is held by the mid-Atlantic block, sheers off north-west and fills.
My hunch is that ECM isn't right: it looks odd to me. Low pressures from as far south as the Azores need a jet pattern to match and I can't see it. But that could be wishful thinking.
(By the way I've had doubts about ECM for a couple of years. It seems very volatile.)
Have to say this is very much as I see things and agree the ecm just looks wrong however it gets there in the end to a lesser degree, most important thing to take from all this right now is the whole NH pattern is primed for a colder blocked outlook so as we head into the new year thing should be interesting. On a side note solur flux has ramped up noticeably in the last week or two so I hope this does not throw a spanner in the works but all in all looking promising.
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Morning all.
Nice bit of eye candy to wake up to this morning. Still out in FI but I think we just may be on the cusp of a major pattern change and this could become a memorable winter event not seen for many a year...No ramping intended ;-) Well fingers crossed and great model watching indeed!!!!
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I would say 8 as a kid probably more like 10.
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Slight dusting of snow here and current temp at 08.30 is 1.1c
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Cold start temp -1.3c
Clear and frosty
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Another belated "thanks guys" a good read, very easy to follow and well presented,I really hope it pans out for you, most of us would be very happy if it did, it can only be a step in the right direction in helping to improve LRF in general. Once again thanks for all the hard work.
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Agreed this really is shaping up to be a very interesting winter season with the OPI and SAI strongly pointing to a very -AO winter and totally at odds with the main LRF models and Meto forecast, I really hope this forecast works out for the team.
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2014 had the second highest October Eurasian snow cover anomaly in the past 47 years.
Well this is another piece of good news for a cold blocked winter, along with the OPI and a polar vortex at a weak state for the time of the year and other background signals such as QBO and so forth, I think this winter really could turn conventional forecasting models on their heads, thats not saying it is guaranteed to be a cold winter, as none us know what it will do yet but things sure are looking very interesting indeed and I think it could end up being notable in more ways than one.
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It's called Irony :-)
Relax
Well lets hope the OPI team get the irony ;-))
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I think this is going to be a really interesting winter coming up and this will be a really good test for the opi, Good luck to the team, without this kind of research we would never make any advances in meteorology and our climate in general, to make comments like we will be back to square one if we end up with a mild winter are absurd as this is the whole point of the project, its how we learn.
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I like everyone else is following this very exciting thread with some very informative posts so thanks to everyone who has made this the thread it is.
It is now looking very likely the opi is going to end up somewhere sub -2 really great great news as this does seem to have a good correlation with regard to us having a cold winter especially so when it is sub 1.5, having said all this I think some of us maybe need to take a deep breath and step back a bit, as we know there are a lot of other drivers in the mix, the opi alone I feel cannot guarantee a snowfest winter for us in the UK I wish it was that simple and straightforward, I am not saying anyone has quite that far but with that in mind I do think some folk on here do get a little carried away, I am as much a coldie as the next person but I think we need to see what happens with all the other background teleconnections such as the strat,wave breaking solar flux,and so forth to see the full picture.
Having said all this to my very untrained eye it is looking promising thus far, certainly a far cry from this point last year so fingers crossed all the pieces of the jigsaw fall into place for us this year to have a really memorable cold winter, whatever transpires its looking like very exciting model watching times ahead I think for everyone!!!.
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Thanks for all the work you put in to this thread each year Ed and good to have you back, really looking forward to this coming winter and will follow this thread with much interest.
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Well lets hope it better than winter 13/14 it wouldn't take much to improve on one of the worst winters I can remember, less rain and less stormy would be a start, I would love to see one or two storms in late Oct early Nov followed by some bright crisp sunny days with hard frosts and with a good lengthy cold snowy spell from around the 2nd week in Jan lasting through to the early march, followed by a real warm up for spring, not too much to ask for. Whatever it brings lets hope we don't see the horrendous flooding of last winter.
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Thanks for such a detailed forecast, as others have said a lot of time and energy and hard work has gone into this, well done, will be interesting to see how it all pans out, from my untrained eye/perspective I think you may well be spot on,oh that has probably gone and jinxed it ;-} Thanks once again Ed.
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East Anglia and North London weather discussion (25/02/2018) onward
in Regional
Posted
Still snowing here around 4" possibly a bit more in Hindolveston North Norfolk