garbagebags

I really don't think it will be a "block". Definitely some sort of cold flow wind directions and potential for snow. But I don't see a block anywhere.

Substantial upgrade in the cold for early next week. Really nice run. Pressure Temps

so let me get this right. November is Autumn. We are in Autumn. Yeah. I think you made that quite clear...

I dispute your wording slightly if I may. I would say "mild" at this stage would be 10-15 degrees. Althought the ECM isn't as cold as the GFS. It's certainly Average to slightly below average. I really wouldnt call it "mild"

God I remember that, End of Dec? I've never seen such a chart fail in my life. I threw the GFS in the bin for about 6 months after that little episode!

Think your looking at the wrong time spell?? Look at Sunday - wednesday. Thats where a cold spell is showing.

I think the key timeframe to be watching now is 165 to 192. Thats where we are seeing some decent cold forming in the reasonable time frame. I've never had any interest in FI to be honest.

GFs seems to be going for it again for next week. Fingers crossed for rest of the run

Oh it was epic alright. Probably best snow ive seen since about 1995

Looks like a textbook Northerly to me

apart from the Fact that the end Nov 2010 event was Greenland blocking and Northerlies...

Northerly's are vastly superior to easterlys for snow. Everyone knows that.

Wind and rain here. about 17 degrees. You wonder why I am moaning? not even looking decent for next week.

Very dissapointing stuff here. Looks like we wont be getting this good spell. Temps barely making 20 next week and loads of cloud. I don't get it. http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/g63

Still bad here. (Glasgow) High winds and rain, coldish too. Feels like Autumn! Safe in the knowledge though that "Its coming"

So Newcastle is in the extreme north now is it? Ok, I give you a different example, Norwich. I'm not saying that this isn't a cracking spell coming, it is indeed. And I can't wait. I was just pointing out that a sweeping statement 5-7 days out that this would be the best UK weather is 7 years is a bit dangerous and most certainly won't apply to all. Remember the "beast from the east" at the end of December that was so confidently locked in at 4 days out and then vanished. I look forward to this coming spell and wish the best for it. However at this stage won't be betting any money on any 7 year records being broken. That would be silly.

I don't think that is fair to say at all. Certainly not yet. Big downgrade on the GFS this morning/last night and It's a very different outlook depending on where you are. I can actually almost say with certainty that for Aberdeen this spell will NOT be the best in 7 years. Perhaps even Glasgow, Edinburgh and Newcastle too. Its far from set in stone and (unfortunately) taken a big downgrade recently.

Ok, well I've made my mind up, I'm sticking with the ECM for the rest of the winter, the GFS can go in the bin for all I care, I wont be viewing it. Yes I know I could still be wrong but Ive had enough of the tension and ive committed. GFS = BROKEN.

Nice upgrade

120

Looks to be tracking more east than SE, is that not bad?

Thoughts on the 12z ECM folks? I suspect a partial downgrade and then all models will be (in the loosest possible sense of the word) roughly singing from the same song sheet. Not in their predictions per say but in the temps we will receive.

Can i ask (I'm ignorant I'm afraid). It looks to me that while the GFS is indeed a much better run, it's actually gone more away from the ECM, where the ECM drives the shortwave SE and the GFS was peskily driving it East, the GFS is driving it NE?