garbagebags
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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter
garbagebags replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Think its Scandi -
Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter
garbagebags replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Problem with NW'erlys is they are a bit like a stripper. Your all excited about it before it happens but after its happened, you are just left feeling frustrated and wishing you had got more -
Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter
garbagebags replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The 06 has deepened the midweek low slightly. Really glad Im not on a boat near shetland this week. -
Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter
garbagebags replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Really? I wouldnt Say this is Atlantic dominated. -
Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter
garbagebags replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looks like the UK may see its first 850 -10 line this weekend. I have to say, its a bit sad to see everyone looking way into next week and beyond and getting down about it. I think there is a case of "not being able to see the woods for the trees" going on here (I too am guilty). I mean, here we are, just over a week into winter and we have -10 line forecast to hit the british Isles. God, compared to last winter thats a near miracle. -
Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter
garbagebags replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hi, my reply was moved here - https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81281-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-autumnwinter-2014/page-49 Thanks,. -
Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter
garbagebags replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Really? Looks like a fairly good snow event here for Sunday, at ground level -
Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond
garbagebags replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Couldn't agree more. So many people saying things like stop looking for cold in November, nothing can happen till december, wait till december. Do people seriously not remember only 4 years ago? -
Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond
garbagebags replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Am I missing something?? -
Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond
garbagebags replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It sure counted in Nov in 2010! -
♫This Could Be The Start Of Something Big♫ Edit: Can someone please move this to the ramping thread or delete it. I've just realised it probably not appropriate here.
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Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond
garbagebags replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Can someone tell me please, is the PV in general always "the enemy"? Like, would it be better if just never was there all winter (for cold and snow). Or do we need it to form but in the right places, or form and burst? how exactly does it work. Because im not sure if I want to be looking for no signs of PV or a ruined one, or do we need those dark purples but just not over greenland etc? -
Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond
garbagebags replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Your going to have to help me get my head rounds this one. How does the Jet dipping down below the UK in the third pic equate to the above average temps in the last pic, im confused, Surely such a JS would be pulling in cold air from the north? -
Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond
garbagebags replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I believe positioning is critical. Ive seen ridges and blocks where a couple of hundred miles east and west of the ridge you've got +10's and the -10's. -
Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond
garbagebags replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Over the past few days now I've noticed FI on the GFS trying to build heights over greenland. Yes its FI and yes its different every run. But its the fact that it keeps trying is making my ears prick up just a bit more than normal. Ill post a chart, and on its own its pointless because its FI. But its a growing trend (in my eyes). -
Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.
garbagebags replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well people always say look for trends and not individual runs. Well unfortunately the trend (all be it only the past 48 hours) is pushing the whole system further and further east. -
Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.
garbagebags replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Much Much less heights into Greenland than the 00z though? no? -
Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.
garbagebags replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
552 line Appearing over Finland. Low over France not really helping. Maybe continent is just too warm still? Give me a greeny any day. -
Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.
garbagebags replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
sorry can't post pics at the Mo. Basically this run has the high over Scandi sitting further east making it harder and harder for the cold to reach us. Ridge in the Atlantic is also further east putting us in a very tight squeeze. So far only Scotland clipping the cold. -
Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.
garbagebags replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Starting to see evidence of this creeping in now.