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garbagebags

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    Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Sorry if this isn't the right place but I am curious. Does any of the potential forthcoming setup have any Northwesterly elements to it? or is it just North to East flows? Im just asking because a Cold NWerly is best for me (Glasgow) for snow. Usually get nothing from an easterly. And a straight northerly tends to have dried out by the time it gets down this far. although not always. 

    Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

     

    Looking through all 20 runs and not including either the, Op or parrallel. 

     

    When looking at solely the 850 Uppers POST 240 

     

    5 runs won't deliver the goods

    4 runs are close, flirting with cold  but no cigar

    11 runs have an extended period of cold weather 

     

    bearing in mind it's a + 240 chart , all you can ever do at that time frame is look to see trends, you'd never get all 20 runs going for cold, so I for one like those odds. 

    Looking at the ens 06z IMBY a big change from the 00z ( sorry cant post) I want snow but ATM keeps going into FI 

    t850East~Dunbartonshire.png

     

     

    It does look from that that the operational is something of a wild card for mild temps between xmas and NY

    Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    not sure why people are disregarding the ukmo outlook...

     

    'becoming mild wet and windy' is an option and has been shown on several models, the ecm in particular and yesterdays gfs 06z.

    theres only potential in fi for a cold spell to develop, it has never been set in stone, so dont be surprised if faith in fi will be misplaced (not only in fi but in cold rampers too :nonono: )

     

     

    Well in fairness, at this stage Colder blocked condition seem the favorable course of event. i.e. More likely than Mild and wet. Backed by at least 4 models at this stage. And not FI either, beginning as early as +150. 

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    Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by garbagebags

    Seems to be a lot of "not bad but not great" going on with regards to the models. 
    Lets put this in perspective, and keep it simple.
    Here is the wind direction for Xmas day morning. 
    ukwind.png

     

    Now would you not have given your right arm for that last year? I know it's just one factor but it's very very positive. 

    And the height Anoms for the Atlantic. 

    hgt500-anomaly.png

     

    Were you not praying for that last year to end the conveyor belt onslaught?

    We don't get to pick the weather so we should be grateful for any hope.

    • Like 11

    Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Morning all :)

     

    Have to say if anything I'm more pessimistic this morning than I was yesterday. What concerns me is the strengthening and organisation of the PV shown on both the GFS 00Z main and Parallel runs.

     

    http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014121700/gfsnh-0-336.png?0

     

    And on the Parallel:

     

    http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014121700/gfsnh-0-360.png?0

     

    I hope this is just part of the vortex re-strengthening suggested by Tamara yesterday otherwise early 2015 could be similar to early 2014.

     

    Yesterday's CFS monthly didn't have a hint of an easterly or northern blocking - mobile throughout.

     

     

    Meanwhile I'm still seeing cracking ridging in the Atlantic. That's still there and for every run it remains I get more and more optimistic. 

     

    h500slp.png

     

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I remnember this time last year and we were grasping onto the the straw of a potent Northerly toppler on Boxing day that was occasionally popping into the odd Op chart. Difference is last year that was the best we could possibly have hoped for (of course, it didn' even happen), this year things are very different heading into the final third of December. With the warming in the strat and prospect of greatly wave activity I would be confident that even if we do miss out in the Xmas - NYD period, I don't think we will have too long to wait afterwards.

    I feel the same way. I'm desperately trying to analyse if "it's just me" with rose tinted goggles. Pretty sure last year I too saw hope. Difficult for me to discern if its genuinely looking better. I dare say if the Atlantic went all zonal over the next few days (a possibility) we would all be crying out "ahhh its like last year". I think I will reserve judgement until 48hrs out. However I am of course excited by developments.

    Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I remnember this time last year and we were grasping onto the the straw of a potent Northerly toppler on Boxing day that was occasionally popping into the odd Op chart. Difference is last year that was the best we could possibly have hoped for (of course, it didn' even happen), this year things are very different heading into the final third of December. With the warming in the strat and prospect of greatly wave activity I would be confident that even if we do miss out in the Xmas - NYD period, I don't think we will have too long to wait afterwards.

    I feel the same way. I'm desperately trying to analyse if "it's just me" with rose tinted goggles. Pretty sure last year I too saw hope. Difficult for me to discern if its genuinely looking better. I dare say if the Atlantic went all zonal over the next few days (a possibility) we would all be crying out "ahhh its like last year". I think I will reserve judgement until 48hrs out. However I am of course excited by developments.

    Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I do like the trend of finally that Russian high moving well away because for me, it does nothing apart from sending mild air to Northern latitudes and it leaves you wondering where all the cold air up to the North and East. So at least Svalbard and Scandinavia may see some more significant cold soon so IF we get the right set up, it could be at least on the potent side. 

     

    At the moment though, there not an awful lot too suggest any major cold for the run up to xmas although as we know, this can change before we know it.

     

    Trend does seem to be more milder days than colder ones but its still pretty variable so it is still interesting in that respect. 

     

    I think we need to be careful about how generally we talk, as it stands, the north (Scotland) see's more -5 (850) days than +5 days in the run up to xmas. So for Scotland at least, looks like average to colder than average run up to xmas. Definitely quite a north south split in the models now.

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