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garbagebags

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Everything posted by garbagebags

  1. garbagebags
    Sorry if this isn't the right place but I am curious. Does any of the potential forthcoming setup have any Northwesterly elements to it? or is it just North to East flows? Im just asking because a Cold NWerly is best for me (Glasgow) for snow. Usually get nothing from an easterly. And a straight northerly tends to have dried out by the time it gets down this far. although not always.
  2. garbagebags
    It looks transient though. Doesn't apear to be a "sit and stick" AZH by any means. nothing to worry about I don't think.
  3. garbagebags
    To be fair I had 4 feet of snow to low levels in Nov 2010.
  4. garbagebags
    Everyone seems to be ramping I guess I am the only one "moaning". All I can see is a brief, nay... exceptionally brief cold shot that yes will bring snow but it will never lie on the sopping and "warm" ground. I say expect a nasty wind chill, lots of driving sleet some falling snow and a bit of mushy slush underfoot. Pah.
  5. garbagebags
    "Arctic Blast" "deep freeze" "Colder than the Antarctic"
  6. garbagebags
    Well in fairness its not consistent as in the 12z it was over Shetland.
  7. garbagebags
    I would say we are pretty confident out to 150. (just as the ridge starts to form) After that, its completely up for grabs. By my reckoning that makes the next few days the most exciting model watching time!
  8. garbagebags
    I don't buy this low pressure over Scotland. It just pops up out of absolutely nowhere! No way could it so quickly get so strong? Surely?
  9. garbagebags
    The way of the pear has been gone today. Still time to recover though. Not to mention 2.5 months of winter and 3.5 months of potential snow to go.
  10. garbagebags
    Because the parallel is not the soon to be come live operational. It's the parallel of an unfinished model. Don't be fooled into thinking your viewing the new, finished, operational gfs.
  11. garbagebags
    It does look from that that the operational is something of a wild card for mild temps between xmas and NY
  12. garbagebags
    Well in fairness, at this stage Colder blocked condition seem the favorable course of event. i.e. More likely than Mild and wet. Backed by at least 4 models at this stage. And not FI either, beginning as early as +150.
  13. garbagebags
    So, awards for the best eye candy tonight goes to the new GFS. Either a brilliant model, or an outrageous ramper. Either way. I'm loving these.
  14. garbagebags
    Two words. THAT ECM.
  15. garbagebags
    Seems to be a lot of "not bad but not great" going on with regards to the models. Lets put this in perspective, and keep it simple. Here is the wind direction for Xmas day morning. Now would you not have given your right arm for that last year? I know it's just one factor but it's very very positive. And the height Anoms for the Atlantic. Were you not praying for that last year to end the conveyor belt onslaught? We don't get to pick the weather so we should be grateful for any hope.
  16. garbagebags
    Meanwhile I'm still seeing cracking ridging in the Atlantic. That's still there and for every run it remains I get more and more optimistic.
  17. garbagebags
    I dont like to be a party pooper but would this exact chart not just mean high winds and rain for most of England?
  18. garbagebags
    Is the net weather GFS 06 model run stuck?
  19. garbagebags
    Can I ask. Why is the operational GFS run different to the average/mean GFS run (sorry if thats not the right words but you know the one I mean. I would (ignorantly) think that the operation run would be the average of all the gfs members? that that would be how they come up with the run?
  20. garbagebags
    I feel the same way. I'm desperately trying to analyse if "it's just me" with rose tinted goggles. Pretty sure last year I too saw hope. Difficult for me to discern if its genuinely looking better. I dare say if the Atlantic went all zonal over the next few days (a possibility) we would all be crying out "ahhh its like last year". I think I will reserve judgement until 48hrs out. However I am of course excited by developments.
  21. garbagebags
    I feel the same way. I'm desperately trying to analyse if "it's just me" with rose tinted goggles. Pretty sure last year I too saw hope. Difficult for me to discern if its genuinely looking better. I dare say if the Atlantic went all zonal over the next few days (a possibility) we would all be crying out "ahhh its like last year". I think I will reserve judgement until 48hrs out. However I am of course excited by developments.
  22. garbagebags
    This "post xmas day event" has been hinted at in very deep FI for some time now. IF ( a big if) this comes off then the GFS should be given a big pat on the back especially for its FI work.
  23. garbagebags
    Ridging for Xmas. What a present that would be.
  24. garbagebags
    I think we need to be careful about how generally we talk, as it stands, the north (Scotland) see's more -5 (850) days than +5 days in the run up to xmas. So for Scotland at least, looks like average to colder than average run up to xmas. Definitely quite a north south split in the models now.
  25. garbagebags
    Ski resorts in Scotland are open. Had snow on the ground here a few days and Dec looking to come in lower than average CET. Hardly a "fail" is it?
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